Archive | April, 2024

ISRAEL/IRAN TENSIONS: PROVOCATION, RETALIATIONS, WIDER WAR OPTION/FEARS

25 Apr

OPTION/DANGERS

[Prefatory Note: Questions posed by Mohammad Ali Haqshenas on

behalf of International Quran News Agency and responses of

Richard Falk, April 19, 2024; this text is slightly modified. The

focus is on the Israeli April I attack on Iran’s Damascus consular, and the

international law implications of Iran’s retaliation against Israeli targets on April 13, followed a week later a by Israel’s second drone attack on a military base not far from Isfahan, which both countries somewhat

downplayed. Israel seemed to have given up the wider war option

at least for the present in response to diplomatic pressures from allies to

deescalate regional tensions. The future remains uncertain, especially,

if Israel goes ahead with the threat of a major military operation in

Rafah].

  1. What do international laws and conventions say when it comes to targeting a country’s diplomatic mission?

The immunity of consular facilities from international attack is one of the most widely respected, useful, uncontroversial commitments of international law since its inception. It was formalized and details specified in the Vienna Convention on Consular Immunity. Even without this Convention Israel would be bound by a similar body of constraints that are considered part of ‘customary international law’ that enjoy the status of ‘jus cogens’ norms, that is, standards of behavior binding on all sovereign states whether or not a treaty exists. When as here a widely ratified treaty does exist, then disputes about obligatory behavior are decides by reference to the treaty, with an optional Protocol conferring compulsory jurisdiction on International Court of Justice to adjudicate. From the above it follows that being a non-party does not relieve a government of a sovereign state from the obligation to comply with the legal framework.

In this instance such arguments are superfluous as both Israel and Iran are parties to the Vienna Convention as are another 180 states.

Although Israel is widely assumed to have launched the attack on the Damascus concular facility located within the larger Iran embassy compound in Syria. In a strange twist the US State Department spokesperson refuses as if April 24 to confirm that targeted facility was indeed a consular facility entitled to immunity from hostile action. It is strange as the build struck has been uniformly assumed to deserve treatment as Iran’s consular facility. The US continues to contend three week after the attack that the location and identity the building in question is still ‘under investigation.’

  • Following the Israeli strike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Tehran urged the UN Security Council to condemn the strike but the Council failed to do that due to the US support for Israel. What does this inaction mean when we take into account the responsibilities of the UN to maintain international peace?

Such action in the UNSC by the USA to insulate Israel from its obligation to comply with international law with regard to consular and embassy immunity is a reminder that when it comes to enforcing international law, the UN was designed to be weak, unmistakably intended to allow the P5 in the Security Council to  by giving an unrestricted right of veto to the five countries victorious in World War II. The veto is arguably the UN’s greatest deficiency when it comes to achieving the paramount war prevention goals of the UN. In effect, the 1945 architects of the UN subordinated upholding international law to strategic primacy for these five geopolitical actors in relation to enforcement or even interpretation of relevant legal obligations. Although only five countries are accorded a right of veto in the UN Charter, it has been used, especially by the US to thwart the will of overwhelming majorities among Member governments by being extended to shield ‘friends’ and allies from accountability.

Some years ago the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, called critical attention to this situation with the pithy phrase ‘the world is greater than five.’ The world is certainly greater, but regretably the UN is not. There are many situations of this kind concerned with securing compliance with international law by UN members who cannot veto a proposed UN decision but enjoy a sufficient special relationship with one of the five that suffices to block any UN enforcement initiative taken against it. In the 1999 Kosovo War, for instance, NATO avoided seeking authorization from the UNSC because it anticipated a Russian veto.

  • What are the long-term implications for international law if such attacks go unchecked?

The implications for international law are what they have always been in modern times. When the obligations of law clash with the strategic interests of powerful states, geopolitical policies prevail, and the core obligation of the rule of law (treating equals, equally) is ignored. This generalization applies to the pre-UN history of international relations. A good example is the war crimes trials conducted at Nuremberg and Tokyo in 1945 where the crimes of the victors were exempted from legal scrutiny while the crimes of the losers were the subject of indictment, prosecution, and punishment. More concretely, the atomic bombings of Japanese cities and the strategic bombing of German cities were accorded impunity. A double standard highlighted by being described as ‘victors’ justice,’ but an ideological defeat for advocates of law-governed behavior as shaping behavior among sovereign states and in the relation of states to the rights of peoples.

It is a mistake to conclude that international law is useless because of this subordination to geopolitics. For one thing, an effective international legal order is essential to sustain the stability of relations in most areas of interaction among sovereign states. Trade, investment, finance, communications, travel and tourism, diplomacy are among the areas of international life that depend on mutuality of interests and the practice of equality when it comes to enforcement and implementation. Beyond this, ‘responsible statecraft’ by dominant states (‘dominance’ does not necessarily refer to the same political actors that possess veto rights at the UN) can unilaterally exercise restraint in the use of the veto or in pursuing conflictual behavior. Many would insist that the US has weakened the UN by its ‘irresponsible statecraft.’ The extent to which the US has managed relations between the UN and Israel in an excessively indulgent manner, illustrated by its complicity with genocide is illustrative.  Unconditional support for Israel is also as much of a reflection of domestic political considerations in the US and Western Europe as it is of the international conflictual context.

Even when international law is flagrantly violated as it was in the Damascus attack, and Israel is protected against a punitive response at the UN, the impact on world opinion, global solidarity initiatives, and the clarification of legitimacy ensure that international law plays a role in the behavior of states and the outlook of global public opinion. Populist action often influences the policies and behavior of leading geopolitical actors. In the post-1945 anti-colonial wars the weaker side militarily generally prevailed politically, in part because international law and the flow of history seemed to everywhere on their side. Transnational activism in the form of boycotts and sanctions often is vindicated by assessments that the targeted country is violating international law in serious and obvious ways. In short, international law, even if not implemented by the inter-governmental order of states or by the UN, is helpful in mobilizing civil society to take a variety of nonviolent coercive actions. This dynamic contributed to the collapse of the apartheid regime in South Africa 30 years ago and it is mounting ever stronger pressure on Israel in light of its Gaza genocide, further justified by its defiance of international law.   

  • Iran said it used its legitimate right to self-defense by launching strikes against Israel. What do international laws say about this?

There are several issues present. Does a single attack of this nature, however unlawful, engage the right of self-defense as specified in Article 51 of the UN Charter. This Charter definition is linked to “a prior armed attack” as distinct from an act of aggression, but given the paralysis in the UN, it might be deemed reasonable in view of the frequency of past lethal violations of Iran’s sovereign rights and the failure by the UN to take any punitive action, or even a resolution of censure, against Israel’s defiant attitude in shaping national policy in the security domain.

A further international law issue concerns matters of proportionality and discrimination. Estimates vary as to the scale of the Iranian attack involving 170 or more drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles seems both disproportionate and indiscriminate, and yet little damage resulted, and no one killed. As Iran gave some notice of its planned retaliation to the US and other governments, it may have intended, as some commentators have suggested, that its retaliation for Israel’s responsibility in relation to the Damascus attack, to be symbolic and performative, rather than a full-scale attack as suggested by the array of drones and missiles.

To some extent, because of enforceability issues, what a state does in retaliation for such one-off violations of its sovereignty is assessed and judged in relation to precedents reflecting past practice. If deemed to be consistent with such practice it is legitimized and widely viewed as acceptable, whereas if not, it is regarded as unacceptably provocative. Israel has reacted to the Iranian attack of April 13 as an unacceptable provocation, despite its own prior attack causing high-profile Iranian deaths and the paucity of damage inflicted by Iran’s retaliation. Israel is proposing a retaliation to Iran’s retaliation. If Israel has carried out its threat in a way that causes death and destruction in Iran it is almost certain to have escalated the conflict in dangerous ways. When acting in these grey sectors of law, such as is the law governing international retaliation, the criterion of reasonableness offers some guidance to both actor and responder, and affects public discourse and media treatment. Of course, perceptions of reasonableness may vary greatly, and often make assessments based on alignments rather than. the characteristics of behavior.

In my judgment the sequence of events is revealing, a highly provocative attack on Iran’s diplomatic facilities in Syria, killing seven Revolutionary Guards, including a leading general with command responsibility for Iran’s role in Lebanon and Syria, followed by Iran’s ambiguous retaliation that could be viewed as a failure to inflict major damage in Israel or a successful symbolic display of capabilities programmed to avoid substantive damage, and a similarly ambiguous second Israeli retaliation, this time against an Air Base near Isfahan that was not highly provocative. Overall, Netanyahu in the Damascus attack was exploring the wider war option, backed off after the US and other regional and supporting governments insisted upon not elevating the tensions with Iran to overt combat, and possibly a regional war.

  • Some analysts believe that the Israeli regime targeted the consulate to escalate tensions with Iran and use this as a cover to continue its massacre of Palestinians in Gaza. What is your take on this and how can Tel Aviv be held accountable for its crimes in Gaza?

As suggested above, Netanyahu has failed to achieve the goals of Israel’s massively destructive and inhumane response to October 7, seeming to leave his last best option, the widening of the war in ways that make Iran the main antagonist of Western interests in the Middle East. The backgrounding of the Ukraine War in light of the events in Gaza lend plausibility to this kind of ‘politics of deflection.’ Israel is a master of shifting public attention from its crimes to its critics or to quite different objects of concern that better suit its national interests..

Achieving accountability in a legal sense is almost impossible so long as the Global West, especially the US, supports Israel. Any attempt to impose accountability through the UN would almost certainly be blocked by casting a veto in the Security Council, which the US has not been reluctant to do. Accountability in its political dimensions could be achieved if Israel is treated by many governments in the Global South and civil society activism as ‘a pariah state’ as was the experience of apartheid South Africa; solidarity initiatives rooted in civil society activism combined with resistance to apartheid seemed to explain the radical moves of the Pretorria regime, releasing Nelson Mandela from prison and negotiating a peaceful transition to constitutional democracy and racial equality. Accountability in a moral sense is exhibited by public expressions of outrage on the part of peoples the world over as well as by the frustrations caused by unenforceability of ICJ decisions and General Assembly activism in reaction to the unlawfulness of apartheid. 

  • What do you think about the efforts of the ICJ to hold Israel accountable for its genocide in Gaza, especially given that the regime is planning an attack on Rafah where more than 1.5 million displaced have taken refuge?

This question raises complicated issues. The initiative in the ICJ has been greatly important for passing judgment on Israel’s moral and political wrongdoing with respect to the Gaza genocide yet limited in effectiveness as to behavior. The ICJ has been unable to implement the persuasive legal pronouncements of its Interim Orders of January and March instructing Israel to take actions to mitigate further suffering of the Palestinian people while the Court ponders the allegations of genocide. Israel has refused compliance with the Provisional Measures requested in the South African ICJ initiative. Israe backed by the US, and seems poised to go ahead with its threatened attack on grossly overcrowded Rafah, despite expectations of shockingly high casualties.

The ICJ and the UN generally are neutralized by ‘a crisis of implementation.’ In the face of stubborn geopolitical resistance it lacks the mandate, will, and capabilities to enforce international law, let alone promote global justice. If the UN became more robustly endowed, an obvious undertaking would be to form an International Protection Force that would give meaning to the UN Responsibility to Protect norm adopted with much fanfare by the Security Council 20 years ago, and then deceptively invoked a little over a decade ago to justify a regime-changing intervention in Libya. As things presently are, a justifiable coercive and punitive response to genocide in Gaza is unthinkable, which tells us a lot about why so many people are disappointed by or frustrated with the UN, not realizing that it was structurally designed to vest control over international security issues, broadly defined, in the P5, the winners in World War II, and the last stand of a world order based on a dying European colonialism and an ascendant America.

A Gift to Cat-Lovers and Soul Mates: A Poem of T.S. Eliot

23 Apr

The Naming of Cats

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T. S. Eliot
1888 – 
1965

The Naming of Cats is a difficult matter,     It isn’t just one of your holiday games;You may think at first I’m as mad as a hatterWhen I tell you, a cat must have THREE DIFFERENT NAMES.First of all, there’s the name that the family use daily,     Such as Peter, Augustus, Alonzo, or James,Such as Victor or Jonathan, George or Bill Bailey—     All of them sensible everyday names.There are fancier names if you think they sound sweeter,     Some for the gentlemen, some for the dames:Such as Plato, Admetus, Electra, Demeter—     But all of them sensible everyday names,But I tell you, a cat needs a name that’s particular,     A name that’s peculiar, and more dignified,Else how can he keep up his tail perpendicular,     Or spread out his whiskers, or cherish his pride?Of names of this kind, I can give you a quorum,     Such as Munkustrap, Quaxo, or Coricopat,Such as Bombalurina, or else Jellylorum—     Names that never belong to more than one cat.But above and beyond there’s still one name left over,     And that is the name that you never will guess;The name that no human research can discover—     But THE CAT HIMSELF KNOWS, and will never confess.When you notice a cat in profound meditation,     The reason, I tell you, is always the same:His mind is engaged in a rapt contemplation     Of the thought, of the thought, of the thought of his name:          His ineffable effable          EffanineffableDeep and inscrutable singular name.

Netanyahu Failed in Gaza, Tries to Widen War

20 Apr

I

[Prefatory Note: Interview by Mohammad Ali Haqshenas, initially published on April 20, 2024, by International Quran News Agency. In light of the relative mildness of the Israeli response, I would revise somewhat my responses below. It now seems either that the US reaction to the Damascus attack or the concerns of the Netanyahu war cabinet rejected, at least for now, the temptations of a wider war. Iran as well seemed to accept an outcome of its retaliation directed at Israel, resulting in neither death nor damage was nevertheless sufficient for its purposes. The overall situation remains unstable, and hence uncertain, but Netanyahu’s escaping accountability for failures in Gaza seems for the present to rule out the option of a wider war against Iran, with US active involvement.]

QNA – Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has failed to achieve goals in the “inhumane” war on Gaza and seeks to widen the conflict, a former UN special rapporteur says.

Netanyahu Failed in Gaza, Tries to Widen War: Ex-UN Rapporteur

“Netanyahu has failed to achieve the goals of Israel’s massively destructive and inhumane response to October 7, leaving his last best option, the widening of the war in ways that make Iran the main antagonist of Western interests,” Richard Anderson Falk, a professor emeritus of international law at Princeton University, told IQNA.

The comments come amid boiling tensions in the region after the Israeli regime targeted the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, on April 1.

The attack claimed lives of high-profile Iranian military personnel that were in Damascus on advisory mission.

Faced with the international organizations’ inaction, Tehran decided to respond to the attack. Iranian armed forces launched Operation True Promise with dozens of drones and missiles against military targets in Israeli-occupied territories on April 14.

What follows is the full text of the interview with Professor Falk about the issue: 

IQNA: What do international laws and conventions say when it comes to targeting a country’s diplomatic mission?

Falk: The immunity of consular facilities from international attack is one of the most widely respected and uncontroversial commitments of international law as formalized by the Vienna Convention on Consular Immunity. Even without this Convention Israel would be bound by a similar body of constraints that are considered part of “customary international law” or enjoying the status of “jus cogens” norms, binding on all sovereign states whether or not a treaty exists, and in the event that a treaty exists, being a non-party does not relieve a government of a sovereign state to comply with the legal framework.

In this instance such arguments are unnecessary as both Israel and Iran are parties to the Vienna Convention as are another 191 states. 

IQNA: Following the Israeli strike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Tehran urged the United NationsSecurity Council to condemn the strike but the Council failed to do that due to the US support for Israel. What does this inaction mean when we take into account the responsibilities of the UN to maintain international peace?

Falk: Such action in the UNSC by the USA to insulate Israel from its obligation to comply with international law with regard to consular and embassy immunity is a reminder that when it comes to enforcing international law, the UN was designed to be weak, giving a right of veto to the five countries victorious in World War II, which arguably is the UN’s greatest deficiency when it comes to achieving the paramount war prevention goals of the UN.

In effect, the 1945 architects of the UN subordinated upholding international law to according primacy to these five geopolitical actors in relation to enforcement or even interpretation of relevant legal obligations. Although only five countries are accorded a right of veto in the UN Charter, it has been used, especially by the US to thwart the will of the majority of states and of members of the UN by being extended to shield “friends” and allies from accountability.

Read More: 

Some years ago the Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, complained about this situation by the pithy phrase “the world is greater than five.” The world may be greater, but the UN is not. There are many situations of this kind concerned with securing compliance with international law by UN members who cannot veto a proposed UN decision but enjoy a sufficient special relationship with one of the five that suffices to block any UN enforcement initiative taken against it.

IQNA: What are the long-term implications for international law if such attacks go unchecked?

Falk: The implications for international law are what they have always been in modern times. When the obligations of law clash with the strategic interests of powerful states, geopolitical policies prevail, and the core obligation of the rule of law (treating equals, equally) is ignored. This generalization applies to the pre-UN history of international relations.

A good example is the war crimes trials conducted at Nuremberg and Tokyo in 1945 where the crimes of the victors were exempted from legal scrutiny while the crimes of the losers were the subject of indictment, prosecution, and punishment. More concretely, the atomic bombings of Japanese cities and the strategic bombing of German cities were accorded impunity. A double standard highlighted by being described as “victors’ justice.”

It is a mistake to conclude that international law is useless because of this subordination to geopolitics. For one thing, an effective international legal order is essential to sustain the stability of relations in most areas of interaction among sovereign states. Trade, investment, finance, communications, travel and tourism, diplomacy are among the areas of international life that depend on mutuality of interests and the practice of equality when it comes to enforcement and implementation.

Many would insist that the US has weakened the UN by its “irresponsible statecraft.”

Beyond this, “responsible statecraft” by dominant states (‘dominance’ does not refer to the same political actors that possess veto rights at the UN) can unilaterally exercise restraint in the use of the veto or in pursuing conflictual behavior. Many would insist that the US has weakened the UN by its “irresponsible statecraft.” The extent to which the US has managed relations between the UN and Israel in an excessive manner is illustrative.  It is as much a reflection of domestic political considerations as it is of the international conflictual context.

Read More: 

Even when international law is flagrantly violated as it was in the Damascus attack, and Israel is protected against a punitive response at the UN, the impact on world opinion, global solidarity initiatives, and the clarification of legitimacy ensure that international law plays a role in the behavior of states. Populist action often influences the actions of leading geopolitical actors.

In the post-1945 anti-colonial wars the weaker side militarily generally prevailed politically, in part because international law and the flow of history was on their side. Transnational activism in the form of boycotts and sanctions often is vindicated by assessments that the targeted country is violating international law in serious ways.

International law, even if not implemented by the inter-governmental order of states or by the UN, is helpful in mobilizing civil society to take a variety of nonviolent coercive actions.

In short, international law, even if not implemented by the inter-governmental order of states or by the UN, is helpful in mobilizing civil society to take a variety of nonviolent coercive actions. This dynamic contributed to the collapse of the apartheid regime in South Africa 30 years ago and it is mounting ever stronger pressure on Israel in light of its Gaza genocide, further justified by its defiance of international law.   

IQNA: Iran said it used its legitimate right to self-defense by launching strikes against Israel. What do international laws say about this?

Falk: There are several issues present. Does a single attack of this nature, however unlawful, engage the right of self-defense as specified in Article 51 of the UN Charter. This Charter definition is linked to “a prior armed attack” as distinct from an act of aggression, but given the paralysis in the UN, it might be deemed reasonable in view of the frequency of past lethal violations of Iran’s sovereign rights and the failure to take any punitive action against Israel’s defiant attitude in shaping national policy in the security domain.

A further international law issue concerns matters of proportionality and discrimination. Estimates vary as to the scale of the Iranian attack involving 170 or more drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles, and yet little damage resulted, and no one killed. As Iran gave some notice of its planned retaliation to the US and other governments, it may have intended, as some commentators have suggested, that its retaliation for Israel’s responsibility in relation to the Damascus attack, its retaliation to be symbolic and performative, rather than a full-scale attack as suggested by the array of drones and missiles.

Read More: 

To some extent, because of enforceability issues, what a state does in retaliation for such one-off violation of its sovereignty is assessed and judged in relation to precedents reflecting past practice. If deemed to be consistent with such practice it is legitimized and widely viewed as reasonable, whereas if not, it is regarded as unacceptably provocative. Israel has reacted to the Iranian attack of April 14 as an unacceptable provocation, despite its own prior attack causing high-profile Iranian deaths and the paucity of damage inflicted by Iran’s retaliation. Israel is proposing a retaliation to Iran’s retaliation. If Israel carries out its threat in a way that causes death and destruction in Iran it is almost certain to escalate the conflict in dangerous ways. When acting in these grey sectors of law, such as the law governing international retaliation, the criterion of reasonableness offers some guidance to both actor and responder. Of course, perceptions of reasonableness may vary greatly.

IQNA: Some analysts believe that the Israeli regime targeted the consulate to escalate tensions with Iran and use this as a cover to continue its massacre of Palestinians in Gaza. What is your take on this and how can Tel Aviv be held accountable for its crimes in Gaza?

Falk: As suggested above, Netanyahu has failed to achieve the goals of Israel’s massively destructive and inhumane response to October 7, leaving his last best option, the widening of the war in ways that make Iran the main antagonist of Western interests. The backgrounding of the Ukraine War in light of the events in Gaza lend plausibility to this kind of ‘politics of deflection.’ Israel is a master of shifting public attention from its crimes to its critics or to lesser objects of concern.

Achieving accountability in a legal sense is almost impossible so long as the Global West, especially the US, supports Israel. Any sort of attempt at imposing accountability through the UN can be blocked by casting a veto in the Security Council, which the US has not been reluctant to do. Accountability in its political sense could be achieved if Israel is treated by many governments in the Global South as a “pariah state” as was the experience of apartheid South Africa; also important are solidarity initiatives rooted in civil society activism. Accountability in a moral sense is exhibited by public expressions of outrage on the part of peoples the world over as well as by the frustrations caused by unenforceability of ICJ decisions.   

Read More: 

IQNA: What do you think about the efforts of the ICJ to hold Israel accountable for its genocide in Gaza, especially given that the regime is planning an attack on Rafah where more than 1.5 million displaced have taken refuge?

Falk: This question raises complicated issues. The initiative in the ICJ has been greatly important for passing judgment on Israel’s moral and political wrongdoing with respect to the Gaza genocide yet limited in effectiveness. The ICJ has been unable to implement the persuasive legal pronouncements of its Interim Orders of January and March instructing Israel to take actions to mitigate further suffering of the Palestinian people. Israel has refused compliance, backed by the US, and seems poised to go ahead with its threatened attack on grossly overcrowded Rafah, with expectations of shockingly high casualties.

The ICJ and the UN generally are neutralized by “a crisis of implementation.” In the face of stubborn geopolitical resistance, it lacks the mandate, will, and capabilities to enforce international law, let alone promote global justice. If the UN became more robustly endowed, an obvious undertaking would be to form an International Protection Force that would give meaning to the Responsibility to Protect norm. As things are, such a justifiable response to genocide is unthinkable, which conveys a lot about why so many people are disappointed by or frustrated with the UN.

Professor Richard Anderson Falk is the author or co-author of 20 books and the editor or co-editor of another 20 volumes. In 2008, the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) appointed him to a six-year term as a United Nations Special Rapporteur on “the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967”.

The views and opinions expressed in this interview are solely those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the view of International Quran News Agency.

Pivot to Iran? Decoding April 1st

18 Apr

[Prefatory Note: This is a revised text of an opinion piece published in Turkish, a contribution invited by Semin Gumusel on April 14, 2024; developments arising from the convergent incidents on April 1st continue to reverberate, making updating a high priority.]

April 1st Pivet from Gaza: Damascus Massacre, Al Shifa Hospitial, World Central Kitchen Attack, the Biden/Netanyahu Diplomatic Dance, and Iran’s Retaliation

Certain dates become iconic through being engraved in the public consciousness of an era. The 21st century has already had two such enduring occurrences: the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon in the United States, initiating ‘the war on terror’ and the Hamas cross-border attack on Israel prompting a genocidal response. April 1st has not yet such heightened significance. Yet the five events that arose from what took place on this single day in April exhibit the dangerous and both visible and secretive interactions affecting the political life of the Middle East. The fallout from April 1st that might come to be regarded as producing a cycle of responses of such magnitude as to mark  the end of the post-Cold War Era.

These five happenings associated April 1st are inter-connected developments that if considered together bring a sense of coherence to the long ordeal of the Gaza population of 2.3 million Palestinians. Each occurred during a slowly unfolding crisis throughout the Middle East that has heightened dangerously combustible regional global tensions.  As a result, attention, energies, and resources have been in recent months diverted from a series of urgent global challenges arising from climate change, regressive forms of nationalism, and failures of political leadership made worse by a weakening transnational populist engagement. Earlier it was hoped such engagement from below might exert sufficient pressures on governments and economic elites to produce needed regulations and reforms with respect to the seemingly distinct underlying problematic issues. Despite the dark skies now overhead, the confluence of these five events at the start of April might even induce shifts in policy priorities in ways that could influence regional and international behavior to enhance or further diminish prospects for ecological resilience and humane global governance.  

Pivot to Iran: Temporary or Transformative?

The first of the April 1st events to be considered was the Israeli missile attack on a consular building within the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus. Twelve persons were killed, including seven members of the Iranian Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps who were apparently serving as military. Among these latter victims, presumably the Israeli targets, was General Mohammed Reza Zahedi, the highest ranking Iranian to be assassinated since the US Baghdad high-profile assassination of Gen. Qassem Suleimani, a popular political figure and military leader in Iran who was killed while he was on a diplomatic peace mission in January 2021 during the last days of the Trump presidency.  

Carrying out such violent actions across international borders is itself an international crime, often treated as an act of war, and certainly a political provocation. In addition, in the present instance the assassinations of these Iranians were aggravated by being not only an unlawful use of force that violated Syrian territorial sovereignty but additionally involved the illegal targeting of a foreign diplomatic facility, which international law treats as a prohibited target area. Such attacks are forbidden in deference to the reciprocal interests of all sovereign states, even when relations between governments are strained, in the security of diplomacy and the safety of their diplomats.

The Supreme Guide of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was not wrong when he denounced the attack as equivalent to an assault on Iranian territory that was located in Syria. Iran’s leader vowed to retaliate for Israel’s allegedly evil acts by attacking Israeli territory. The Israeli government lost no time officially warning Tehran that any retaliation from Iran that causes harm on Israeli territory will result in an Israeli response intended to harm targets in Iran. Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, and Prime Minister Netanyahu responded to Ayatollah Khamenei’s statement with their own escalatory threats in the form of policy statements—Israel harms any country or non-state actor that harms it, and given its past practice, it will do so disproportionately as it has against the entire Palestinian population in Gaza during the past six months in response to the October 7 Hamas attack. [Israeli reliance on disproportionate force has long been a feature of its national security practice. See Falk, “Dahiya Doctrine: Justifying Disproportionate Warfare—A Prelude To Genocide,” April 1, 2024, blog, richardfalk@wordpress.com]

This provocation of both Iran and Syria on April 1st somewhat surprisingly posed no acknowledged difficulties for Biden’s foreign policy, which remained steadfastly both anti-Iranian and anti-Syrian, despite the fact that this non-retaliatory Israeli attack flagrantly violated international law, caused death and destruction, and escalated risks of a wider war in the region if, as was expected, Iran carries out its threat of retaliation. Biden while lecturing Netanyahu on attacking and otherwise interfering with humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza, went out of his way at the same time to reaffirm the US resolve to stand with Israel in any future eruption of violent struggle with Iran, Syria being left in limbo, but also without doubts about the willingness of America to side with Israel should Syria decide to retaliate or to join Iran in a joint response.

World Central Kitchen Attack

The second incident at the start of April caused a more immediate policy  impact. It consisted of an enraged Western response to the much publicized Israeli attack on a World Central Kitchen (WCK) well-marked foreign aid convoy of three vehicles delivering 100 tons of desperately needed food and medical supplies to starving and wounded Palestinians in northern Gaza, an attack that killed six aid workers and their driver. Similar atrocity incidents affecting the foreign delivery of equally needed aid to Gaza had occurred ever since the start of Israeli military operations in the days after October 7. Indeed many far worse incidents if measured by the deaths of innocent aid workers than this one had occurred ever since Israel started retaliating for the October 7 Hamas attack. What made WCK attack different from other attacks was the fact that the aid workers killed were nationals of Western countries supporting Israel rather than Palestinians or nationals of Global South states. From a moral and legal perspective the national identity of the victims should make no difference, but if assessed from a political perspective a different story emerges.

What followed the WCK attack was a flurry of high-profile media and governmental expressions of outrage directed at Israel’s presumed deliberate responsibility for such an attack, holding both Netanyahu and Biden responsible for such deliberate lethal violence directed at nationals of their allies. The fact that 2024 Biden’s reelection prospects have become clouded by growing criticism of his unconditionally pro-Israeli policy in the face of the Gaza genocide, which were further aggravated by this incident. It was clear that Israel had crossed a red line. The deliberate killing of Western aid workers by Israel was not acceptable and must not be repeated. What followed, was a sharp criticism of the WCK attack a warning to Israel that if such incidents were repeated it would lead to a revision of US willingness to give the same level of support to Israel. What immediately followed was directly responsive, Biden’s public criticism of Israel which until the WCK attack was as rare as Netanyahu’s apologies to the Western governments of the victims. Sometimes, words matter more than deeds! 

Geopolitical Panic: Biden/Netanyahu Fence-Mending Diplomacy

This concurrence of April 1st happenings produced a geopolitical panic attack in both Tel Aviv and Washington, prompting an emergency fence-mending telephone conversation between Biden and Netanyahu a few days later with Blinken reportedly listening quietly on the line. Although the actual conversation took place on April 4, it was organically tied to the WCK attack three days earlier. Netanyahu was so backed into a corner that he felt the need to apologize in public to the governments of the WCK aid workers killed without seeming to be either weak or antagonistic in addressing the concerns of Israel’s chief backers, especially the US. Biden, in contrast, was walking a tightrope straddling contradictory domestic critics with one side pushing for the US Government to break with Israel by pushing harder for a ceasefire and the other side seeking reassurance that Israel would continue to enjoy Western support come what may.

What gave away this unusual double diplomatic game was the immediate public disclosure of a normally private conversation between two embattled leaders. This represented a sharp departure from diplomatic practice in international crisis situations suggesting that special considerations were present. The usual practice in similar circumstances is to regard such direct conversations between heads of state as highly confidential, at least for a decent interval, leaving the public and even the media to engage in conjectures as to the exchange, and to make their best unverified guess as to the presumed blend of anger, explanation, and regret. But because the main purpose of the Biden/Netanyahu conversation seemed to be to reassure Americans, and the West more generally that Israel was neither abandoned nor any longer assured of unconditional support unless it changed its ways of interfering with the international aid and humanitarian efforts of Western countries, it became expedient for both leaders to disclose the content of what was said.

On reflection it is far more acceptable in the West for Israel to attack the aid workers of the UN (so long as no Westerners are killed), especially those working heroically throughout the crisis within the confines of UNRWA to mitigate Palestinian suffering, enduring the loss of their own staff throughout the Gaza onslaught.

 In this sense, the most dangerously irresponsible feature of this complex public relations initiative was to reveal a strong pledge of continuing US support for Israel’s anti-Iran approach, which plausibly could have the effect of heightening Netanyahu’s incentives to foment a direct encounter with Iran to hide his multiple failures–to destroy Hamas, to gain the release of October 7 hostages, to minimize a surging global backlash against Israeli legitimacy, and to win back his own popularity among Israelis. It also conveyed to the leadership in Iran the unwelcome news that Israel would be backed in relation to Iran even when Israel violated basic rules of international law. This renewed show of solidarity with Israel made a devastating wider war much more likely and was obviously intended to frighten Iran sufficiently to moderate the retaliatory response that it had warned would be forthcoming. To send such signals to Tehran and Tel Aviv was to reinforce the impression that the US remained dedicated to achieving regime-change in Iran and willing to give Netanyahu indirect encouragement to hide his failures in Gaza by widening the conflict zone to include Iran and those non-state actors in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.

As could have been anticipated, and perhaps desired by the Netahyahu leadership, was Iran’s retaliation by military drones and missile programmed to hit targets within Israel. Most of the Iranian attack weapons were intercepted and destroyed by a combination of US military operations, the collaborative efforts of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, France, and the UK, as well by Israel’s formidable defense forces, and cause little damage within Israel. This attack occurred on April 13th, but as with the sharp shift in the tone of the Biden/Netanyahu relationship, the retaliation by Tehran was a direct consequence of the Damascus attack on April 1st. As suggested earlier, Netanyahu is fighting for his political life in Israel, making a wider war seemingly his tempting option to avoid facing the likely consequences of personal and national defeat. The recklessness of the Damascus attack makes little sense otherwise. The US involvement in Israel’s defense and Netanyahu’s initial reaction to the effect that Israel remains determined to attack Iran directly in view of its attempted military strike. Such a posture confirms Israel’s encouragement of a shift of attention away from Gaza, and in the direction of Iran with uncertain consequences. The reactions of other countries in the region, as well as China and Russia will determine just how wide this new phase of conflict becomes.

Atrocities at al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City

The final noteworthy occurrence on April 1st took place when Israel withdrew its forces from devastated al-Shifa Hospital and surroundings in Gaza City. On that day Israel ended its two weeks of atrocity behavior at al-Shifa Hospital, where Palestinian patients confined to their beds were shot dead as were doctors who refused to abandon the hospital, and several hundred Palestinians killed in the course of the military operation. Hamas and Islamic Jihad suspects, often with no evidence of affiliation or even sympathies were killed on the spot after being seized. Of course, for this there was no apology from Netanyahu or pretense from Biden of issuing a warning to Israel to refrain from such behavior. If atrocity victims in military operations are Palestinian, whatever befalls them, no feathers are ruffled in Washington. For its own domestic reasons, the US Government wants to show that it supports humanitarian aid efforts without challenging Israel’s war-fighting methods or insisting that international law guidelines be respected in struggles with regional rivals even as here under conditions of occupation subject to the constraints of international humanitarian law. For such admonitions, only the voices of moral authority in the West, such as Pope Francis or UN Secretary General Guterres can hope to be heard by the peoples of the world. The views of dissenters from the grotesque ordeal of genocide in Gaza are shunted to the sidelines of general awareness and media reportage. Their online words, analysis, and appeals, while influential for those opposed to the genocide, especially as reaching eyes and ears unfiltered by the informal censorship of the main media platforms in the Global West. These pleas for peace and in denunciation of international crime seldom carry weight with governments and political elites unless compatible with strategic interests of major states. The silence of the West in the face of genocide is a complicity crime shamelessly accentuated by the material, intelligence, and diplomatic forms of active support given to Israel since October 7, deserving criminalization.

Reflections on Convergence and the Future of the Middle East

Recounting these events makes it evident that April 1 is a day worth reflecting upon to gain an appreciation of the criminal dimensions of Israel reaction of the October 7 attack and the overall response of the Western liberal democracies (former European colonial powers except Spain, and breakaway British colonies, particularly the US, Canada, and Australia). Whether these focal points will drift toward a devastating regional inter-civilizational clash or hasten the declaration of a much overdue ceasefire cannot be currently known. Obviously embarking upon a genuine peace process is the haunting question that overhangs the prior discussion. This lends abiding interest to how we come to perceive these five events, and how they play out in the weeks and months ahead, with the immediate preoccupation being the prospect of an Israel military strike against Iran. Whether this strike is symbolic or substantive may either avert the drift toward major warfare or accelerate it. Wiser heads do not often prevail in Israel, and so the fate of the region and world may depend on this being an exception.

The defense of Israel by military and intelligence cooperation of the Global West and several Sunni Arab governments suggests that containment of Iran, especially with respect to its nuclear program, has precedence over solidarity with the Palestinian people and their struggle. Whether the peoples of these countries will challenge these priorities of the governments who came to the defense Israel is a question that will be clarified in the years ahead. The policy choice in West between escalating hostility toward Iran and the renewal of normalization initiatives will remain relevant even if calm is eventually restored to Israel/Palestine relations, which itself can turn out to be delusional if Israel is faced with a combination of resistance activities and solidarity initiatives.   

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Gaza Ceasefire Petition by International Lawyers

17 Apr

[Prefatory Note: This petition offers international lawyers to show solidarity with the grave plight of the Palestinian civilian population of Gaza that is continuing to endure daily onslaught by Israel that causes widespread suffering so far supported to varying degrees by the leading liberal democracies of the West.]

International lawyers calling for ceasefire in Gaza and respect for international law

Started

April 4, 2024

Why this petition matters

Started by International Lawyers

We, a group of international lawyers and academics dedicated to resolving international disputes through peaceful means, cannot remain silent in the face of the acute humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Due to the armed hostilities in Gaza over thirty thousand people have died, many of them children, and there have been significantly more casualties. According to representatives of the United Nations and various organisations attempting to provide relief, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is catastrophic. In its order of 28 March 2024 in the case of Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel), the International Court of Justice (“ICJ”) observed that the Palestinians in Gaza “are no longer facing only a risk of famine … but that famine is setting in” (see paragraph 21 of Order at https://www.icj-cij.org/node/203847

Guided by the principles of the rule of law, peaceful conflict resolution and the protection of the civilian population, we call for an immediate and durable ceasefire and full adherence to the rules of international law and specifically international humanitarian law. We also call for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. We specifically recall the UN Security Council Resolutions 2728 (2024), 2720 (2023), and 2712 (2023) as well as UN General Assembly Resolution A/ES-10/L.27 (2023).

We further call for Israel to comply with the ICJ Orders dated 26 January 2024 and 28 March 2024 and to take all necessary measures to ensure unhindered provision of humanitarian aid through international organisations, including through UNRWA.

We express our condolences and deepest sympathy to all those who are experiencing suffering and loss in Gaza and Israel.

We invite members of the international legal community, whether involved in dispute resolution or otherwise, to join us in calling for immediate ceasefire and the just and peaceful resolution to the current conflict by signing this petition.

Signatories as of 12 April 2024 include:

  • Taiwo Adeshina
  • Ali Al-Karim
  • Céline Aymé-Wauthier
  • Domitille Baizeau
  • Professor Ilias Bantekas
  • Sylvie Bebohi Ebongo
  • Mohammed Dele Belgore SAN
  • Professor George Bermann
  • Le Batonnier Joachim Bilé Aka
  • Professor Laurence Boisson de Chazournes
  • Juliet Blanch
  • Gabriel Bottini
  • Professor Ronald Brand
  • Judge Charles Brower
  • Professor Nael Bunni
  • Professor Peter Cameron
  • Yemi Candide-Johnson SAN
  • Eliséo Castineira
  • Dong Chungang
  • Professor Giuditta Cordero-Moss
  • Bernardo Cremades
  • Nadia Darwazeh
  •  Yves Derains
  • Diamana Diawara
  • Caroline Duclercq
  • Professor John Dugard SC
  • Bernd Ehle
  • Professor Richard Falk
  • Professor Maximin de Fontmichel
  • Julien Fouret
  • Teresa Giovannini
  • Nina Hall
  • Laura Halonen
  • George Hazboun
  • Professor Kaj Hobér
  • Jean-Christophe Honlet
  • Sami Houerbi
  • Vera van Houtte
  • Professor Hans van Houtte
  • Professor Gabrielle Kaufmann-Kohler
  • Fathi Kemicha
  • Gaston Kenfack
  • Ben Knowles
  • Gisela Knuts
  • Professor Stefan Kroll
  • Professor Nikos Lavranos
  • Philippe Leboulanger
  • Françoise Lefèvre
  • Carole Malinvaud
  • Samy Markbaoui
  • Professor Pierre Mayer
  • Professor Brian McGarry
  • David Méheut
  • Professor Loukas Mistelis
  • Yasmin Mohammad
  • Alexis Mourre
  • Sara Nadeau Seguin
  • Marina Papadatou
  • Wolfgang Peter
  • Pierre Pic
  • Noradèle Radjai
  • Mohamed Abdel Raouf
  • Hery Frédéric Ranjeva
  • Professor Catherine Rogers
  • José Rosell
  • Michael Schneider
  • Professor Thomas Schultz
  • Ronen Setty
  • Patricia Shaughnessy
  • Mohamed Shelbaya
  • Ana Stanič
  • Professor Attila Massimiliano Tanzi
  • Former President Danilo Türk
  • Professor Dorothy Ufot SAN
  • Christopher Vajda KC
  • Sun Wie
  • Karim Youssef
  • Roland Ziadé

Signatories as of the launch date: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VisSsQQ335SdOQrhL8p7VvarDWkZTkow/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114011518788839331935&rtpof=true&sd=true

Complete list of signatories as of 12 April 2024: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1f5DDhTLukvY7mCL3N3jCeFG4DV0U6Gg8/view?usp=sharing

Interview with Daniel Falcone: Trials and Tribulations of Palestinian Refugees in Syria & Israel/Palestine/Iran

15 Apr

[Prefatory Note:This series of questions was posed for my consideration early in late March 2024, published by CounterPunch on April 9th under the title, “The Forgotten Palestinian Refugees in Syria.” I have revised somewhat my responses, partly because of the impact of developments in April, especially the bombing of Iran’s consular facility in Damascus on April 1st killing 12 persons, including 7 Iranian military advisors, which led Iran to abandon its practice of retaliating for attacks by indirect responses to US/Israel assets/military bases or to entrust retaliations to Iran’s regional non-state allies in the region, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and possibly Hamas. On this occasion Iran deliberately itself retaliation on April 12th, firing as many as 300 drones and missiles toward Israeli targets. Most were intercepted with the help of Israel’s Western supporters (and Jordan), yet Israel has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and threatens to retaliate, escalating the conflict. What will happen with this Israeli effort to get the US involved in a wider war directed at achieving regime-change in Iran remains uncertain, but raising doubts about the war-prevention capabilities, and even motivations, of the US and to a lesser extent, China and Russia.]

Interview with Daniel Falcone: Trials and Tribulations of Palestinian Refugees in Syria Prior to the Israel’s April 1st Attack on the Iran Consular Building in Damascus

Daniel Falcone Introduction: The Syrian Civil War was the longest and most complex geopolitical conflict to emerge out of the Arab Spring, thus creating a complicated legacy for leftist analysts to interrogate. In this interview, exclusive for Counterpunch, former United Nations special rapporteur, and international relations scholar Richard Falk, breaks down Palestine and Syria and the history and politics of that refugee crisis from the left. Often, this topic finds the center-right media attempting to focus on Syria, not in the interest of Palestinians, but to remove the attention away from US/Israeli aggression. Falk, a fierce critic of US and Israel foreign policies, highlights the complex circumstances of the Palestinians in Syria and points out how a host of domestic and foreign policies, and worldviews from the left and the right, both complicate and threaten Palestinian survival and their pursuit of liberation in the face of ongoing US-sponsored settler colonialism.

Daniel Falcone: How many Palestinians are in Syria, and how long have they been there?

Richard Falk: It is difficult to be very accurate about refugee and displacement statistics due to the prolonged internal Syrian turmoil over the course of more than a decade since 2011, and still are not fully resolved. Before the Syrian Civil War the number of Palestinian refugees registered by UNRWA in Syria was 526,744, the majority of whom came to Syria during the Nakba in 1947, fleeing especially from what was then northern Palestine, now Israel. A large proportion of the Palestinian refugees in Syria chose and were able to live outside the refugee camps, with no more than 111,000 of the more than a half million living in the nine official, and three unofficial camps, according to estimates in 2002.

Current estimates of the Syrian refugee population arrives at even smaller numbers due to the fact that many Syrians fled to neighboring countries and to Europe. It is now believed that correct current number of Syrian refugees within the borders of Syria is about 450,000. This experience of internal and external displacement of Palestinians in Syria during the civil war, exhibited the dangers of being vulnerable as a refugee in a combat zone during wartime, especially in the face of the growing enmity between the Syrian government and Palestinian refugees, greatly aggravated by their opposed alignments in the Syrian Civil War. Palestinians in Syria overwhelmingly supported the opposition to al-Assad regime in Damascus.   

Daniel Falcone: What kinds of social, political, and economic devastation do Palestinians living inside Syria experience? Stephen Zunes has indicated that reliable numbers for Palestinian civilians killed by Syrian military assaults is around 4,000.

Richard Falk: Until the civil war began in 2011 relations between the Syrian government and the Palestinian refugees seemed positive, especially as compared to the negative features of Palestinian treatment and experience in several other Arab countries, particularly Jordan (‘Black September 1970’) which encouraged the voluntary displacement of Palestinians, departing from Syria, and seeking refuge elsewhere, especially in Turkey and Western Europe. Prior to the civil war Palestinian refugees enjoyed substantially equal rights in Syria as compared to the resident population, being allowed to own property, and work in almost all sectors of the economy.

After 2011, Syrians were viewed by the Damascus government as a hostile presence in view of their overall support for the anti-government political forces, which in part reflected the Shiite-dominated Damascus political leadership in a life-and-death struggle with the Sunni-dominated opposition forces. Among other developments was violent repression by Syria of the refugee camps in Syria, most prominently the Yarmouk Camp located on the outskirts of Damascus, resulting in many Palestinian deaths, forced and voluntary displacements, and widespread hunger in the period between 2011 and 2018.

Such conditions prompted many Palestinian refugees in the 12 Syrian camps to risk the increasingly dangerous migrant journey to Europe, a situation further aggravated when Trump’s defunded UNRWA in 2018. Prior to the civil war in Syria, Palestinian refugees were much more regulated and their economic, political, and social options restricted in Lebanon, with its delicate Muslim/Christian demographic balance, and in Jordan, where the sheer numbers of Palestinian refugees were seen by the government as posing a political threat of a demographic character as further reinforce by their suspected distrust of the Hashemite monarchy.

Daniel Falcone: Is there a problem on the left in the United States in undermining the plight of Palestinians in Syria in relation to the left’s varying perspectives on the Syrian Civil War?

Richard Falk: Yes, the hostility of the hard left to intervention against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, despite its oppressive tactics, autocratic governance, and outright atrocities seemed dogmatically based on siding with whatever political forces around the world validated their behavior by deploying anti-imperial rhetoric and slanted arguments against siding with the anti-Damascus insurgents, which were a hybrid coalition that included more humane and democratic elements than did the government, at least at the outset of the conflict. At the same time, complexities were present no matter which side was supported in the bitter civil strife due to the lack of coherence by either the government or its array of opponents.

Beyond this, at the outset of the Syrian civil strife the US and Turkey underestimated the capabilities and loyalties of Syrian armed forces, being too quick to think it would be as easy to get rid of the Assad regime as it had been for NATO in 2013 to induce anti-Qaddafi regime change in Libya. NATO also badly miscalculated the domestic effects of regime change in Libya. Instead of a successor regime friendly to the Global West, the situation in Libya deteriorated from one of autocratic stability to a condition of political chaos and civil strife among Libyan ethnic communities, in effect from autocracy to a chaotic form of anarchy.

This misleading analogy between Libya and Syria was a costly miscalculation, especially for Turkey, compounded by the emergence of some strange opportunistic alliances in the course of the internal struggle. Perhaps most notable was the mutual relations between ISIS and the anti-Damascus forces. seeming joining in a common cause the liberal opposition to Damascus with an organization previously treated by the West as a virulent form of terrorism.

On the side of the Syrian government again, for a mixture of geopolitical and ideological reasons, were Russia and Iran. The Syrian Civil War was the most complex and prolonged struggle to spiral out of the Arab Spring, and perhaps in modern times, considering the bewildering variety of actors and issues at stake internally, regionally, and globally as well as the mix between state and non-state actors and compounded by the internal antagonisms on both sides.

Daniel Falcone: What are the differences and similarities for Palestinian refugees trying to survive across the Arab world?

Richard Falk: Responding to this tangled issue of comparative treatment of Palestine refugees throughout the Arab World is a stretch for me. Responding broadly, there is agreement that attitudes toward Palestinians refugees varied through time and from country to country, influenced recently by Israeli/US diplomacy promoting normalization of Israeli/Arab relations during the final months of the Trump Presidency in the form of the now notorious Abraham Accords. Since October 2023 the Israeli genocidal onslaught in Gaza has made Arab countries more conscious of their own identities while becoming somewhat more engaged with the  Palestinian ordeal, including reacting with varying levels of concern to what is increasingly regarded by pro-Palestinian forces as ‘a second Nakba’, in effect a brutally forced evacuation being implemented with a genocidal ferocity that far exceeds the Palestinian catastrophe of 1948— that is creating humanitarian pressures for offering shelter to Palestinians outside of Occupied Palestine, highlighted by a situation of widespread starvation and disease in Gaza, grim realities further intensified by the Western defunding of UNRWA since late January 2024 in response to a dubious all out Israeli campaign to discredit UNRWA in a supreme instance of their mastery of the dark arts of deflection.

At present, in reaction to the humanitarian emergency in Rafah, and continuing Israeli threats to launch a military attack on the small city abutting the Egyptian border which is sheltering over a million helpless Palestinians in horrifying conditions even without taking account of the acute fears arising from Israel’s threatened military attack, Egypt has so far responding in two somewhat contrary ways: 1) by deploring the forced cross-border pressures on Palestinians to leave Gaza or die if they are so stubborn as to continue resisting and, 2) by preparing for a mass Palestinian exodus from Gaza by constructing a large walled-in temporary refugee facility in the Sinai Desert, which is part of Egypt. Whether Egypt will eventually be persuaded or bribed to accept a large new influx of Palestinian refugees is uncertain at this point.

The issue posed is tragic for Palestinians in Gaza who have stayed in their homeland despite hardship and abuse since its re-occupation by Israel in 1967, enduring periodic punitive large-scale military incursions from land, air, and sea in 2008-09, 2012, 2014, and 2021, reinforced by a crippling blockade since 2007. The role of Hamas in Gaza is complicated: it reportedly won internationally monitored elections in 2007 because it resisted Israeli abuses more credibly than did the Palestinian secular alternatives, and steadily gained legitimacy among Palestinians throughout the occupied Palestinian territories because it was not tainted by collaborationism or corruption to nearly the extent of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority, itself an outgrowth of the discredited Oslo diplomacy.

Since 2006 when it took over a governing role in Gaza, Hamas has been reduced to being a ‘terrorist’ entity by Israel, United States, and Germany. Its diplomacy was spurned over the years despite credibly proposing long-term ceasefires on several occasions. Israel made no secret of preferring to discourage Palestinian resistance by keeping Gazans on ‘a subsistence diet’ as supplemented by ‘mowing the lawn’ as needed, as well as using Gaza as a virtual free-fire zone to test weapons and tactics, and send a deterrence/Dahiya message to regional governments throughout the Middle East that Israel was not inhibited by law and morality when it came to dealing with its enemies, and disdained such widely accepted legal limitations on force as proportionality and discrimination (as to targets). Additionally, Israel’s presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territories is subject to the 4th Geneva Convention addressing issues of Belligerent Occupation, as well as the unanimous Security Resolutions 242  and 338, which projected an early Israel withdrawal to its 1967 borders after minor territorial adjustments.

The Syrian government’s relationship to the Palestine/Israel conflict seems contradictory in its central aspects. Syria alone among major Arab governments has been actively pro-Palestinian in its foreign policy since the 1948 War. Israel has engaged in various destabilizing moves toward Syria, most dramatically in the form of periodic air attacks at targets thought to be helping anti-Israeli forces in the region. Israel incorporated into Israel the occupied Syrian territory, known as the Golan Heights, under Israeli administrative control since the 1967 War, during the latter part of the Trump presidency. And now it has attacked the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus threatening to make the wider war a

major source of intensifying conflict in the Middle East. In other words, despite its encounters with Palestinian refugees, Israel and Syria have a long history of mutual hostility, given dramatic focus from time to time by

Israeli cross-border air strikes with target located in Syria.

This present engagement with Syria and Iran on one side and the Israel and the US, and most of NATO on the other side, points to a more dangerous phase in the Middle East conflict configuration that has evolved since the end of the Cold War.

Regressive Populism and the Resilience Imperative: Evading Global Challenges

10 Apr

[Prefatory Note: We are living in an alarming period in world history where the ecological balance of the planet is in jeopardy due to anthropocentric negligence and malfeasance. As well, existing geopolitical structures are beset by tensions that threaten to repeat the terrible experiences of global warfare with an increasing danger of recourse to nuclear weapons on a large scale, bringing about ‘a nuclear winter,’ which threatens to be a near extinction event for the human species as well as many animal and plant species. It is by any reasonable calculation a ‘planetary state of emergency’ yet the behavior patterns around the world exhibit almost no adaptive ingenuity and fail to engender the political ambition to put aside anachronistic concerns about strategic clashes of geopolitical actors to focus on these urgent 21st century challenges that are trending toward catastrophe.

I am posting my foreword to a recent book on the rise of ultra-nationalist populism around the world by the distinguished British author and historian, Deepak Tripathi.  What is depicted in the book is emblematic of the populist and inter-governmental myopia that has become a menacing characteristic of the global setting. I highly recommend reading this book, which can be obtained from the usual online book sellers, published in later 2023 by Springer in Europe. Although anachronistic and regressive leadership imperils the human future, it is the mass appeal of autocrats that deepens the array of challenges grouped together under the various failures of populism: THE RESILIENCE IMPERATIVE: Reimaging Global Populism.]

[Prefatory Note: We are living in an alarming period in world history where the ecological balance of the planet is in jeopardy due to anthropocentric negligence and malfeasance. As well, the geopolitical structures are beset by tensions that threaten to repeat the terrible experiences of global warfare with an increasing danger of recourse to nuclear weapons on a large scale, bringing about ‘a nuclear winter,’ which threatens to be a near extinction event for the human species as well as many animal and plant species. It is by any reasonable calculation a ‘planetary state of emergency’ yet the behavior patterns around the world exhibit almost no adaptive ingenuity and fail to engender the political ambition to put aside anachronistic concerns to focus of these urgent 21st century challenges that are trending toward catastrophe.

I am posting my foreword to a new book on the rise of ultra-nationalist populism around the world by the distinguished British author and historian, Deepak Tripathi.  What is depicted in the book is emblematic of the populist and inter-governmental myopia that has become a menacing characteristic of the global setting. I highly recommend reading this book, which can be obtained from the usual online book sellers, published this month by Springer in Europe.]

Foreword to Deepak Tripathi’s Populism: Weaponizing for Power and Influence (2023)

We are living at a time when liberal democracy has lost much of its charm. Reflecting back on 1989 perspectives highlighted by the collapsing Berlin Wall it was not supposed be that way. On the contrary, there was a triumphalist optimism rampant in the West that liberal style democracy (wedded to a market driven world economy) was the wave of the post-Cold War global future, typified by Francis Fukuyama’s End of History: The Last Man (1993). A blazing torch for such a democratizing future was carried by two American presidents, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, who despite coming from supposedly opposed mainstream parties, both championed ‘democracy’ as the path forward for all peoples living on the planet, and especially those in the Global South. To be sure there were more pessimistic voices who were making their voices heard, most prominently, that of Samuel P. Huntington with his conflict-laden view of political life after the Cod War, captured by his arresting phrase, ‘clash of civilizations,’ supposing that the struggle of the future would be ‘the West against the rest,’ [Huntington, Samuel P., “Clash of Civilizations?” Foreign Affairs (1993) Another grim voice gaining attention in that period was the dark forebodings of Robert Kaplan whose historic sense was preoccupied with chaos and disorder. [The Coming Anarchy (2000)].

Bill Clinton, as the U.S. president in the 1990s fashioned and promoted a doctrine of ‘enlargement’ that justified tilting American foreign policy in a pro-democracy direction, claiming also that a democratizing world would inevitably lead to world peace as history supposedly documents that democracies do not fight wars against one another. What was called ‘the strategy of enlargement’ was set forth most influentially set forth by Anthony Lake, Clinton’s National Security Advisor, who was an unconditional advocate of promoting democracy after the Soviet collapse. In his words, “America’s core concepts, democracy and market economics, are more broadly accepted than ever before. We have arrived at neither the end of history nor a clash of civilizations, but a moment of immense democratic and entrepreneurial opportunity, and we must not waste it.” [Lake, “The Four Pillars, Emerging ‘Strategy of Enlargement,’” Chirstian Science Monitor, Sept 29, 1993]

Then George W. Bush came along to push the same line with more ideologically self-serving language, most notably in the introduction to the 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States of America: “The great struggles of the twentieth century between liberty and totalitarianism ended with a decisive victory for the forces of freedom—and a single sustainable model for national success: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise… We will extend the peace by encouraging free and open societies on every continent.” Such a statement still reflects the ideological orientation of that time, but if uttered today its lack of plausibility would make it seem like an emanation from a quaintly out of touch worldview. When I first read this prideful utterance by Bush back in 2002 it struck me then as a perfect example of an ideological framing of imperial hubris. Now I regard it as a dangerous confirmation of the delusional ideas that held sway in the misguided efforts after the Cold War to construct  viable and equitable arrangements supportive of the global public good without paying heed to giving greater independent authority to the UN or according increasing respect for international law.

More than two decades after Bush, Deepak Tripathi ventures to tell us quite a different story about the political tides sweeping across the world in a manner that exposes the fragility of even those political arrangements that had seemed the most stable and deeply rooted within liberal democracies such as the sanctity of elections and the peaceful transfer of power from one leader to the next. Beyond this issue of systemic precariousness, the extraordinary rise of China, and Asia more generally, in a period when the West stagnated, drew into severe question the assertion that ‘free enterprise’ was an indispensable foundation of political sustainability and economic prosperity for all sovereign states with its boastful implication that the West had developed a superior model of economic and political development that all should follow.

Indeed, Tripathi’s stunningly comprehensive and historically grounded survey of populist politics, whether from right or left, or from above or below, articulates a quite different narrative from the earlier post-Cold War perspectives that attempted to interpret the future of politics within states and their international spillover effects of the transitory, if globally reverberating, Soviet implosion in 1992. Rather than the transformative development that the West welcomed, this spectacular, if temporary end of Cold War geopolitics, resulted in fundamental changes in the structures and processes of an evolving world order. It could have been different if the victors had seized the historical opportunity to make the world safer and more equitable by finally eliminating nuclear weapons and constructing more communally organized institutional arrangements. Above all, this would have meant strengthening the UN—its capabilities, responsiveness to human suffering and societal vulnerabilities, cooperative and equitable approaches to climate change and natural disasters. But this window of opportunity was never opened. It was shut down rather quickly by the militarist combination of predatory capitalism and a revitalized geopolitical ambition, which failed to address global scale challenges that posed dire threats to human security.

What Tripathi brilliantly shows is that such a historical context gave rise to populism rather than the expected expansion of democratic patterns of governance by a variety of populist moves at the level of the sovereign state. Instead of addressing problems by the aggrieved even in rich and powerful societies through the social protection of its own poor and vulnerable, as well as responding in an effective and equitable manner to climate change, the U.S. and several European countries became preoccupied with unwanted migrants diluting territorial nationalism and meeting Asian, mainly the Chinese challenge, with new modalities of militarist containment rather than enhanced competitive prowess and a genuine advocacy of inclusive multilateralism. Moderation and pluralism associated with the practice of democracy cast aside, mass frustration leading to severe inequalities, polarization, resentment, and pointed fingers, with the left blaming elites and the entrenched forms of public order while the right blamed overreaching and irresponsible government that served the interests of globalized elites (Wall Street) rather than ordinary people. the soul of the nation. Such polarization gave rise of extremist interpretations, movements, and leaders usually seeking vindication and legitimacy by claiming to be the voice of ‘the people.’ This political mood allowed demagogues and authoritarian figures to flourish, often by proposing snake oil solutions that promised unhinged governance guided by abstract invocations of ‘the will of the people,’ casting aside in fits of populist fury the sanctity of constitutional constraints on the exercise of state power associated with checks and balances, the sanctity of civil and political rights, the rule of law, and a host of other populist tropes.

Although populism is presently spreading its around the world at the expense of more moderate democratic approaches to governance, although not without such partial countertendencies as the defeat of Bolsonaro in Brazil and Trump in America illustrate. Perhaps, partly to reassure us that populism is no more of a permanent fixture than was democracy seemed to be at the turn of the century, Tripathi surveys the political development of the past two centuries in the major regions of the world to educate readers by populism is not new and always diverse as expressive of the particularities of national, regional, and global contexts. Populism is part of the fabric of long dominant sovereign states, including the U.S., Russia, and India, partly less so of China. This helps explain the prevalence of autocratic and radical reform movements throughout Latin America, North America, Europe, and Asia. On the one side, dictatorial populists of the left as Juan Peron and Chavez who serve workers and peasants. But there are also leaders such as Trump who come along with promises ‘to drain the swamp’ of corrupt bureaucrats that are crafting policies for the benefit of special interests, supposedly standing up for the people against the alleged encroachments of globalists, migrants, and ‘terrorists.’ And others like Boris Johnson who championed Brexit as a way of restoring pride and economic vitality to the British nation. Johnson mobilized ‘the people’ by promising to make the nation great again, by various means including disentanglement from the EU, and presumably other forms of internationalism.

The provocative title chosen by Tripathi suggests to me acute anxiety about past and present unleashing of populism. The idea of ‘weaponizing’ politics portends both intense internal conflict and a free hand to act beyond the law on the part of a government leader who enjoys the confidence of an enraged people, prepared to follow along rants on paths that lead to repression, intolerance, and violent conflict. If this is correct, then this book amounts to a warning to be heeded by all who value restraints on political leadership and state power, favor rationality of public discourse, support the repudiation of wild conspiracy theories, and discredit searches for scapegoats upon whom lay blame for the misfortunes of the nation and its people.

Tripathi is disciplined and knowledgeable enough not to project populist trends into the future. As I read him, however, he does appear to believe that populism will not get the job done to the satisfaction of those oriented toward either the balancing of national interests against human interests or against global public goods as the 21st century unfolds. What makes this book so timely and essential reading for an understanding of the world is the conceptualization of populism its depiction as a worldwide phenomenon emergent at times of acute social, economic, and political stress.

Biden’s Warning to Netanyahu: Political Maneuver, Not Policy Shift

6 Apr

[Prefatory Note: The post below contains modified responses to questions posed by a Brazilian journalist, Rodrigo Creviero on 4/4/2024. It is critical of President Joe Biden’s ‘muscular approach’ to the conduct of foreign policy, specifically in relation to China, Russia, and Israel, as played out at the expense of the peoples of the world, including the real interests of the American people. Biden is guilty of war-mongering, reluctance to engage in peace diplomacy, and complicity crimes of support given to Israel while carrying out a prolonged genocide against the long abused civilian population of Gaza along with demonizing and dehumanizing the resistance leadership exhibited by Hamas. In reactions to past genocides the US has done less to oppose their perpetrators than it should  have, but never before has it been an active accomplice, and in the process, undermining the authority of the most widely endorsed norms of international law and demeaned the institutions and procedures internationally available for purposes of interpretation and enforcement.]


1– Biden urged Netanyahu to reach “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza and called on Israel to act in the “next hours and days” in the face of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. How do you see that?

Biden’s call for concrete steps to ensure that humanitarian assistance reaches Palestinians in Gaza comes very late, given a geocidal assault on the civilian population that is in its sixth month. Also, the effort to persuade Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire was not elaborated with the same urgency or seriousness as the humanitarian insistence on allowing aid to reach starving Palestinians. A cessation of Gaza violence has long been vital if further devastation of Palestinians is to be minimized, if not avoided, as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in its January 26 Interim Order decreed in support of South Africa’s plea for Provisional Measures as a response to its preliminary conclusion that it was ‘plausible’ to regard Israel’s violence in Gaza as genocide, the highest international crime that cannot be excused because of claims of self-defense or national security. It is notable that legal absolutism when it comes to genocide is supported by near unanimity among the 17 judges composing the adjudicating panel of jurists, and including judges from the United States, Germany, France, and Australia whose governments had supported Israel’s response to October 7. The ICJ was widely applauded for following the law rather than flags of nationaal allegience, analyzing facts and relevant norms of international law despite the face that the Security Council failed to implement its Interim Order and Israel defied its Interim Order. What the ICJ ordered jnfluenced the symbolic domain of international by legitimating concerns about genocide in Gaza and legitimting the resolve of civil society groups.

Biden’s highly publicized move seems primarily motivated by two developments other than a late surge of empathy for Palestinian suffering: first, shifts in US public opinion away from unconditional support for Israel, which are endangering his prospects for victory in the November presidential election and the fact that Monday’s clearly deliberate attack on the aid convoy of the World Central Kitchen resulted in the death of seven Europeans, sparking media outrage and anger among those governments that had been among Israel’s supporters. No such anger in Washington or hostile media attention were given to prior and worse atrocities responsible for mass casualties among children and women so long as the victims were Palestinians. The surfacing of these concerns, especially in the US, help explain why the public disclosure of the Biden/Netanyahu phone call occurred with official blessings. Such sensitive tensions between previous allies are not normally addressed with such transparency. Such diplomatic moves are considered more effective if carried on secretly, or at least discreetly. Biden evidently was more concerned about winning back Democratic Party voters and reassuring European allies that Western lives should be treated as off-limits for Israel in the future.

Even more disturbing was the explicit support given by Biden to Israel’s recent provocative actions directed at Iran during the 30 minute phone call. The leaders spoke in the aftermath of a targeted attack on April 1st that killed seven Iranian military advisors (including three commanders) while they were present in Iran’s consular building in Damascus, a location entitled by international law to immunity from attack.

Such provocations risk a devastating wider war. Iran has declared its intention to retaliate rather than be passive in the face of Israeli military strikes and assassination of prominent Iranian military commanders, and other violations of Iranian sovereignty by Israel. Given this background, Biden publicized reassurance of support for Israel’s provocations acts as a signal to Netanyahu, facing frustrations in Gaza, rejection by Israelis, and possible imprisonment in Israel on past charges of corruption, to embark upon a wider war with Iran in ways that will exert great pressure on the US to become actively involved in the military operations likely to result and divert attention from policy failures of Israel during these past months.

2—How do you analyze this intensifying of pressure by United States against Israel now?

It seems belated, and partial at best, and easily managed by Tel Aviv without any changes in its approach to Hamas or Palestinian statehood. As suggested, it could tempt Netanyahu to embroil Israel, but also Iran, in a regional war with global dimensions. As suggested, Netanyahu is extremely unpopular among Israelis, with growing protests against his leadership. These factors undoubtedly creates temptations on Netanyahu’s part to divert attention from the failure of Hamas war policy, both as a military operation and in making Israel a pariah or rogue state in the eyes of the peoples of the world, and an increasing number of governments in the Global South.

Given reports of Netanyahu’s defiant response to these ‘pressures’ from the US are coming  come too late and even now have an ambiguous impact, taking too abstract a form, not including an arms embargo or international peace force, and not raising even a possibility of support for UN-backed sanctions. I would conclude that Biden’s much publicized warning to Netanyahu presaging a US shift will not have significant humanitarian or peacemaking influence on Israel’s resolve ‘to finish the job’ by an attack on Rafah that produces devastation and many casualties in that beleaguered city giving hazardous shelter to more than ten times its normal population of somewhat more than 100,000. And could, paradoxically make things worse if Netanyahu seizes upon Biden’s apparently unconscious message to Tel Aviv that the time may have come to shift the eyes and ears of the world to a confrontation with Iran.

3- I am preparing a special article on 6 months of war. How do you evaluate the impact of the last 6 months in the efforts of a peace process in the future and in the relations between Israel and Palestinian people?

At this point, there seems no credible positive scenario for future Israel/Palestine relations. An Israeli consensus, not just the government, is deeply opposed to the establishment of a viable Palestinian sovereign state while the world consensus insists on establishing a Palestinian state with international borders and the enjoyment of equal rights in all respects, including security as Israel. The Palestinian people have not been consulted by either side of this nationalist cleavage and seems more and more inclined to opt for a single secular state with equal rights of both peoples as long favored by independent Palestinian intellectuals such as Edward Said.  

The UN attempted to impose a two-state solution in 1947 without taking account of the Arab majority indigenous population, and it led to failure, periodic wars, and much suffering. In my view, a sustainable future for both Palestinians and Jews depends on a peace process, with neutral international mediation, and respect for the right of self-determination in the framework of negotiations between legitimate, self-selected representatives of both peoples acting in a unified whole of their own devising.

At present, neither Palestine nor Israel, for differing reasons, is in any position to represent their respective constituencies in a manner that is either legitimate or effective. More specifically, Palestine remains divided between the PLO/Palestine Authority leadership in Ramallah and Hamas in Gaza, with additional elements seeking participation in representing the Palestinian people, including the 7 million refugees and exiles. Israel, in contrast, has had a coherent political elite during most of its existence, but now must act to soften tensions between religious and secular constituencies that have been intensifying in recent years to be a credible partner in the search for a political compromise that clears the path to sustainable peace for both peoples based on coexistence, equality, and effective internal and regional security arrangements jointly administered. Stating these conditions highlights how difficult it will be to make the transition from apartheid/genocide realities to the sort of solution roughly depicted.

The South African case, although vastly different, is instructive. It points to two factors that make what seems impossible happen in circumstances that swwm hopelesss: the release from prison of a unifying leader; a majority recognition that a win/win outcome for both peoples rests on genuine compromise and non-interference by third party governments and international institutions.

DAHIYA DOCTRINE: JUSTIFYING DISPROPORTIONATE WARFARE—A PRELUDE TO GENOCIDE

1 Apr

[Prefatory Note: What follows is an essay that originated from my responses to some questions from a journalist preparing his own article on the Dahiya Doctrine. It led me to consider the relevance of the doctrine, and link it to the events of the last several months in Gaza, the Hannibal Directive, antisemitism, and genocide.]

  1. What is the Israeli military’s “Dahiya Doctrine?”

The label ‘Dahiya Doctrine’ was apparently first publicly discussed by a former IDF Chief of General Staff, Gadi Eisenkot. Dahiya is a neighborhood village in southern Beirut that was believed to be a residential stronghold for Hezbollah, the radical Islamic Shi’ite movement opposed to Israel’s encroachments on Lebanese territorial sovereignty and pro-Palestinian in its wider political agenda. The doctrine came as no surprise to persons familiar with past Israeli tactics, although its articulation with reference to events back in 1986 and 2006 entailed an open rejection of compliance with applicable international law. Undoubtedly, the disclosure raised a few eyebrows of disapproval in Tel Aviv as such matters are not generally considered fit for open discussion.

The Dahiya Doctrine is a summary description of Israeli tactics ever since the time of the British Mandate, but was specifically invoked by General Eisenkot with reference to the 2006 Israeli use of disproportionate force (relative to what was regarded by Israel as Hezbollah resistance provocations) to destroy the civilian infrastructure of Dahiya. It was set forth not only as a rationale of past practice, but to describe Israel’s distinctive claim of intention and entitlement to use force in this manner against non-state adversaries as the core of a two-part doctrine of counter-terrorist deterrence. It also was an informal attempt to redefine ‘military necessity’ in situations of asymmetric warfare being waged by Israel against hostile non-state actors based in neighboring states. In the specific context of Lebanon, the blame for recourse to disproportionality is assigned to Hezbollah by Eisenkot contending that the Shiite villages of south Lebanon had been transformed ‘into platforms for terror,’ an inflammatory shorthand for armed resistance to Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon.

It is notable that this claim is put forward without the slightest effort on Eisenkot’s part to reconcile the Dahiya Doctrine with international humanitarian law, which imposes a limit of proportionality on any use of force in situations of international combat. It also neglects to take note of the fact that before encounters with Hezbollah, Israel routinely struck back disproportionately at its enemies, especially with respect to Palestinian acts of resistance, even when nonviolent and undertaken in frustrated response to Israel’s prolonged unlawful behavior as was the case with the Gaza Right of Return Movement initiated in 2018 after 11 years of punitive blockade and periodic large-scale Israeli attacks on the vulnerable Palestinian civilian population.

It is significant that the Dahiya Doctrine was first explicitly applied to the non-Palestinian Hezbollah militia movement, which was misleadingly labeled as ‘Iran-backed’ to warn and justify Israel’s claims to strike back disproportionately against any and all adversaries. The military incursions carried out in 2008-09, 2012, 2014, and 2021 in Gaza are each illustrative instances of the application of the Dahiya Doctrine although rarely rationalized in these terms by Israel and its supporters, but rather subsumed beneath diversionary arguments invoking Israel’s claim of an unrestricted right to defend itself. Such a legal justification was itself dubious given that Hamas, along with the West Bank and East Jerusalem were Occupied Territories subject to a special legal regime depicted in the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949, further elaborated in the First Additional Protocol of 1977. It is widely agreed at the UN and by legal experts that an Occupying Power has no standing to invoke ‘self-defense’ arguments in support of using force, and collective punishment, against an Occupied People, especially in this context as UNSC Res. 242 back in 1967 had unanimously  looked toward the withdrawal of Israel’s armed forces from these territories occupied in the 1967 War. Aside from this, Israel is subject to specific legal duties in the 4th Geneva Convention to protect civilians subject to its administration, and to refrain from efforts to displace the occupied people by interfering with their

underlying rights of self-determination as it has massively done by authorizing and even subsidizing a large number of Israeli settlements and annexing as its ‘eternal capital’ the entire city of Jerusalem. With these considerations in mind, Israel, so long as it remains the Occupying Power, the Dahiya Doctrine and disregard of Gaza’s Occupied status is deeply problematic. Israel is entitled to take measures to sustain security in the Occupied Territories as part of its administrate role, but the force used should be considered legitimate only if rendered compatible with Israel’s responsibilities to safeguard the population under its supposedly temporary and not to interfere with its pre-occupation societal integrity. At least, the international community should not have been hoodwinked into abandoning reliance on the international law framework relevant to belligerent occupation. It seemed obliged to take note of the current legal challenge to Israel’s occupation that has lasted 57 years resulting from the General Assembly’s request for an Advisory Opinion on the legality of Israel’s occupation given its long duration and array of unlawful practices and policies. Whatever the outcome at the ICJ the likelihood of Israeli compliance or UN sanctions in the event of non-compliance is virtually nil. At the same time, it is politically valuable to confirm accusations of unlawful behavior by recourse to authoritative procedures, even if unenforceable, as such assessments tend to have legitimating and mobilizing effects with respect to civil society solidarity initiatives such as BDS (boycott, divestment, and sanctions) and exerts some influence on public discourse in the media and in diplomatic venues.

It is notable that the factfinding mission of the Goldstone Commission established in the aftermath of the 2008-09 Israeli Operation Cast Lead by the UN Human Rights Commission did conclude in its 2009 report that Israeli tactics in Gaza were instances of disproportionality, collective punishment, and state terror in conformity with the reasoning and practice endorsed by the Dahiya Doctrine, while taking note of the unlawfulness of the doctrine and its Gaza application in fact if not by name.

  • How does the Dahiya Doctrine fit into the prevailing laws of war?

As suggested in the previous response, the Dahiya Doctrine directly contradicts one of the most fundamental norms of customary international law, which also infuses the treaty formulations of limits on the use of force in the Geneva Conventions and the UN Charter. Namely, disproportionate force is prohibited as it is considered a form of excessive force and has the clear intended prohibited effects of targeting a wide range of civilian sites and inflicting severe collective punishment on the civilian population as criminalized as a war crime in Article 33 of the 4th Geneva Convention.

The Israeli retaliatory campaign in reaction to the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, is a grotesque example of the Dahiya Doctrine carried to a transparent genocidal extreme. It highlights the aggravating absence of any Israeli effort to set limits on the extent or degree of disproportionality. As in Gaza, General Eisenkot (IDF Chief of Staff, 2015-2016), with reference to Dahiya made some vague references to the issuance of evacuation orders to limit the loss of life on the part of civilians, but in practice this concern has never been consistently evident in the deployment of Israeli military operations. This disregard is manifestly evident in the current military operations in Gaza, despite weak Israeli protestations that allege Palestinian reliance on ‘human shields’ and blaming Hamas for situating their tunnel strongholds beneath hospitals, refugee camps, UN buildings, and schools. These legal arguments cannot justify a total abandonment of Israel’s legal responsibilities as the Occupying Power of Gaza, and besides, these Israeli explanations are not accompanied by sufficient evidence to offset objections

arising from Israel’s recourse to genocidal tactics and endorsed by dehumanizing language of its highest leaders that fulfill requirements of genocidal intent. The Interim Order of the ICJ on January 26, 2024 reinforces this assessment by concluding nearly unanimously that the evidence supports an inference of ‘plausible genocide.’ Even though provisional, and softened by the usual cautious demeanor of this highly regarded international tribunal, it reinforces the worldwide common sense perception of genocide based on real time imagery and informed journalistic commentary from Gaza sites of carnage.

  • How is the Dahiya Doctrine being implemented by the Israeli military in Gaza?

Again, earlier responses anticipate this question. Yet there are complexities associated with attributing to the Dahiya Doctrine the totality of blame for the extremity of what has been transpiring in Gaza for more than five months. This complexity arises from the widespread perception that the military operation in Gaza is not primarily about what it purports to be—namely, the destruction of Hamas or Palestinian resistance through disproportionate force and deterrence of future provocations by Hamas or other state and non-state adversaries. The Gaza operation must be viewed in the wider context of Israel seemingly exaggerated and vengeful reaction to the Hamas attack, which objective investigations may eventually reveal was allowed to take place or inflated in the official depictions of its supposed barbaric aspects, so as to provide the extremist Netanyahu coalition government with a pretext for its preexisting resolve to induce forced evacuation and dispossession of as many of the 2.3 million Palestinians from Gaza as possible, with an implicit unacceptable demand, which is openly avowed  in settler and religious Zionist activism and literature of confronting the Palestinians, residents not only in Gaza, but even more directly in the West Bank and East Jerusalem with a dire choice between leaving and dying, or at best remaining entrapped in a life of misery.

Palestinians are understandably describing Israeli operations as having the overall purpose of inflicting on the Palestinian people conditions designed to produce a second nakba (or catastrophe), recalling the earlier nakba of 1948 when an estimated 750,000 Palestinians were forcibly made to leave their homes and learn that their villages had been bulldozed. Obliged to seek refugee status in neighboring countries and Gaza (then under Egyptian occupation) with no right of return, was itself a serious violation of a fundamental international human right. In effect, the logic behind the Dahiya Doctrine is certainly one way of viewing the 2023-2024 Gaza operation, but in my view it is incomplete without taking into account the underlying endgame of extreme Zionism, as embodied in the program of the Netanyahu coalition government that has governed Israel since the start of 2023, which is to establish ‘Greater Israel.’ The plan is to solidify the existence of a Jewish supremacy state (containing as few Palestinians as possible) in the whole of historic Palestine, described by its most ardent advocates as ‘Israel from the river to the sea,’ that is, from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. In effect, what made this Netanyahu government the most extreme in the whole of Israel’s existence is its stress on completing the Zionist Project through the forced dispossession of Palestinians on at least the scale of the 1948 exodus. More moderate Israeli governments were also committed to such an outcome, although reluctant to acknowledge this, given the international two-state consensus. Earlier Israeli governments were far more ambivalent about turning the settlers loose to terrorize those Palestinians stubbornly refusing to be victims of a second nakba and to use Gaza resistance as a pretext for a genocidal assault on the people and infrastructure of Gaza, making the Gaza Strip uninhabitable and unlivable at least temporarily.

  • The Hannibal Directive and Israel’s Security Paradigm

The Hannibal Directive named after a historically important general in Carthage (247-183 BC) who claimed to prefer suicide to capture by an enemy was first articulated in 1986 by Israel in response to a series of incidents involving Hezbollah’s seizure of Israeli soldiers occupying Lebanon after the 1982 War. It informed debate about the abduction or capture of a low-ranking Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit in Gaza. Shalit’s release in a prisoner swap for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners being held in Israel jails raised the sensitive issue of whether it would not have better to risk killing Shalit than to be pressured into making such a deal. Although Benny Gantz, as IDF Chief of Staff in 2006, insisted that the IDF was under orders to endeavor to rescue Israelis captured from their abductors, which envisaged the use of lethal force, Israeli soldiers were said to be under strict orders not to kill deliberately abducted Israeli soldiers or civilians. Such a distinction, according to some accounts, was not maintained in practice, where the main goal was to prevent abductees from becoming prisoners.

In 2016 Gadi Eisenkot, while he was IDF Chief of Staff formally repudiated the Hannibal Directive and did not reveal secret replacement protocols for dealing with future abduction/hostage taking. The Hannibal Directive, however named or unnamed, again likely supplied the logic of the shootings of abductors and captured Israeli soldiers and citizens in the course of the October 7 Hamas attack. There are a variety of reports suggesting that IDF troops killed by accident or design abducted Israelis to prevent their seizure as hostages. Israel’s dissenting version of what happened on that day insist that any shootings of Israelis by the IDF was accidental, and attributable to the chaos of the situation. [For insightful analysis of these issues in the course of the 2014 attack on the city of Rafah that resulted in the death of an Israeli officer by IDF action to prevent capture see Finkelstein,  Gaza: An Inquiry into its Martyrdom, 2018, 273-277]

The reasons for coupling the inclusion of this brief discussion of the Hannibal Directive are to further illustrate a calculative approach by Israel to issues of life and death for Israelis and others that is complementary in spirit to that set forth in the practice of disproportionate warfare as a prerogative of Israel justified by reference to the behavior and elusiveness of its non-state adversaries, which are consistently linked in state propaganda to its main state enemy, Iran. Such thinking also manifests the dehumanization of the Palestinian people in the event that their presence in their own homeland clashes with the policy priorities of the current phase of the Zionist Project, Such inquiries help us understand the continuities of the prolonged occupation of Palestinian Territories that has imposed oppressive conditions violating the most basis rules and principles of international humanitarian law, mutating from a regime of apartheid to one of forcible expulsion and genocide. For meticulous documentation of such serious charges, see Albanese, Anatomy of a Genocide, A/HRC/55/75, 25 March 2024.

5, Can the Dahiya Doctrine be linked to the Zionist Interpretation and Treatment of Antisemitism?

In my view there is a definite, although complex, linkage. To make such an assessment requires distinguishing three varieties of antisemitism as discourse and as practice:

            —antisemitism as hatred of and discrimination against Jews, currently reignited by Israel’s subjugation and abuse of the Palestinians as a people [See On Antisemitism and: Solidarity and the Struggle for Justice in Palestine, Jewish Voices for Peace, 2017]. The core of this phenomenon was in Europe, including Western Russia, and extending to the Global West, including Australia and New Zealand, with deep roots in the dominant narrative of Christianity in which the Jewish establishment of its day collaborated with the Roman imperial presence in assenting to the Crucifixion of Jesus, and given a special twist in most contemporary varieties of Evangelical Christianity that read the Book of Revelations as imparting the message that the Second Coming of Jesus will only occur when  all Jews return to Israel (as the successor to historic Palestine). Jews will then be given the choice of converting to Christianity or facing damnation. Despite this genuine type of antisemitism, the state of Israel has learned from its experience during the Nazi period that pragmatic convergences could facilitate the establishment and security of a Jewish state, especially the idea that encouraging Jewish immigration to Israel by any means was vital to the domestic support in the United States and elsewhere of Israel.

Early Zionist leaders even collaborated on arrangements with the Nazi regime in Germany that facilitated Jewish immigration to Israel, in some instances, with assurances that Jewish assets could be taken abroad. [see Suarez, State of Terror, 2018] The same pattern of pragmatic and instrumental use of antisemitism underlay the Balfour Declaration in 1917 by which the British Foreign Secretary pledged UK support for the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine, which it facilitated by welcoming Jewish immigration and cooperating with Jewish leaders to carry out its divide and rule governance of its Palestine Mandate. In other words, the Zionist Movement pursued its goals by negotiating a number of Faustian Bargains with antisemitic adversaries, a part of the Israel state-achieving narrative that is confusing for both followers and critics.

It seems reasonable to ask ‘this may be true, but what has it do with the Dahiya Doctrine?’ It relates to the deep roots of Israeli behavior since the early pre-Israel origins of the Zionist Movement. In essence, because of its weakness in relation to potential and actual adversaries, Israel needed to make up its own pragmatically-driven rules of practice without regard to any sense of duty to comply with the expectations of established political, legal,  and moral frameworks. The Dahiya Doctrine is one of expression of such pragmatism, enacted without regard to law or morality against elusive non-state adversary movements. At its extremes, as in Gaza in recent months it invokes the Holocaust to demonize critics, including adverse rulings in widely respected international institutions such as the International Court of Justice, contending that decisions by such actors are tainted by their ‘antisemitism,’ which seems pure smear given the lack of even scant evidence of hostility to Jews as such. In extreme reactions, prominent Israeli spokespersons denounce allegations of responsibility for genocide by contending that given Jewish victimization in the Holocaust, and before, any such accusation is itself a sign of mortal hatred of Jews and disregard of their experience. In effect that Israel, by virtue of its history and national identity can never be held to account for such criminality. In a more implicit and restricted form, this is the essential message to the world transmitted by the Dahiya Doctrine. It seems perverse and cruel to immunize Palestinian victimization from legal and moral criticism because of the Jewish experience in Europe, culminating in the Holocaust. Palestinians had no responsibility for these horrifying manifestation of hatred of Jews and should not be expected to bear the burdens associated with establishing a Jewish sanctuary in their midst without their consent or any show of Zionist respect for the Palestinian presence.

          —antisemitism as a weapon against critics who are neither antisemites in the first sense nor deniers of Israel’s legitimacy as a sovereign state. This weaponization of antisemitism draws its effectiveness partly because of the guilty consciousness of the Global West, especially in Germany, UK, and the US, during the pre-war Nazi years, causing extreme sensitivity to any contentions of antisemitism, making weaponization an effective means to shift the conversation away from Israel wrongdoing. [For a searching account see Asa Winstanley, The Weaponization of Anti-Semitism, 2018] Highly professional reporting by Special Rapporteurs of the UN Human Rights Commission are consistently defamed by knowingly ‘fake antisemitism,’ invoked by Zionist groups and subsidized by Israeli funding and influence on media reportage. This dynamic is less related to the Dahiya Doctrine but it underpins the Israeli opportunistic defense against criticism emanating from the UN or other responsible circles as ‘blood libels’ against the Jewish people, as was the response by prominent Israeli voices in reaction to the Goldstone Report of 2009, which contributed to its recommendations being sidelined and ignored, even discredited, another instance of Dahiya logic writ large. Israel’s mastery of ‘the politics of deflection’ has been often successful in shifting the media and public focus from message to messenger, with the intended result that the message is never being delivered to the public. (Winstanley, 202-)

This was the case when a series of respected NGOs and many prominent scholars in the years 2017-2022 formed a consensus on the basis of highly documented reports that Israel was guilty of the international crime of apartheid. Rather than engage the issue, Western governments and mainstream media responding to such a damaging allegation with deafening silence, refusing to take notice and offer counter-arguments to the apartheid consensus, again as with Dahiya sustaining the impression of Israeli impunity in relation to normally applicable international criminality.

            —antisemitism as emanating from Jews within Israel and Directed against the Jewish Diaspora. The Israeli government and public opinion has moved to the right, embracing the Greater Israel scenario as the basis for its future peace and security, replacing the Oslo diplomatic model of a negotiated end to the struggle of the two peoples on the basis of a political compromise with a victory scenario unilaterally realized with complicit support from Western liberal democracies. This third more obscure and subtle type of antisemitism is underappreciated both in its emergence, its recent surge in Israel, and in relation to Dahiya logic. Part of the obscurity arises because of the overlap of the pragmatic dependence on ideological, political, and economic support of Zionist diaspora networks in the Global West to continue to back Israel financially and diplomatically despite the increasing world clamor for a ceasefire in Gaza, the accountability of Israeli leaders, and a surge of support to implement Palestinian rights long deferred.

As criticism of Israel’s treatment of the Palestinian people grows throughout the world, and especially increasing among younger Jews in the Diaspora, the tensions between Jews living in Israel those spread across the world are intensifying. Such tensions are downplayed in deference to the continued financial and diplomatic dependence on Zionist leverage in the official circles of the Global West and on the continuing belief among Jews living in Europe and North America that Israel retains a right to exist as a secure, legitimate sovereign state.

The tensions are mainly caused by increases in settler violence and the rise in influence of religious Zionism and more culturally oriented assertions heard with greater frequency in Israel to the effect that ‘true Jewish heritage is expressed by speaking Hebrew’ or by a growing internal ambivalence toward the Holocaust noted by close observer of Israeli Jewish remembrance museums where recent changes in exhibitions and pedagogy give greater weight to the outlook of earlier leading Zionist voices such as Theodor Herzl, and even David Ben Gurion, who believed that Jews who failed to immigrate to Israel were oblivious to  the inevitability of a repetition in some new guise of the Jewish fate that culminated in the Holocaust, and deserved little sympathy.

Turning back to the Dahiya Doctrine, the shared lesson of the Holocaust is that diaspora Judaism suffered as it did because it was disproportionately weak and passive, deluding itself by ignoring a deeply embedded, if temporarily dormant soft antisemitism limited to the social sphere. Early Israel was modeled on inverting the experience of diaspora Jews by stressing disproportionate strength, creative energy, and pro-active modes of being, which provide the impetus and mentality reflected in the Dahiya Doctrine. The doctrine can also be seen as a metaphor for Israel’s worldview. Indeed, the pre-Israel image of the urban Jew was replaced by the agrarian idealism of early settlements of Jews in Israel, glamorized by claims of ‘making the desert bloom’ and the social idealism of the kibbutz movement of communal living in self-enclosed rural ethnic enclaves. Later Judaism, especially after the 1967 War was caught up in the materialist and militarist dreamland of modernity, the prevailing Western ethos of neoliberal globalization. and the resolute ambition to establish stable security and permanent boundaries unilaterally, by force as necessary, in the course of realizing the goals of a Greater Israel. This meant defying the two-state mantra that was the preferred declared position of Israel’s most influential supporters in the Global West, including the US. Despite all that has changed, the Biden presidency continues to favor, at least in public, Palestinian statehood; only the Trump presidency between 2017-21 seemed content with an outcome that either denied a state to Palestine altogether or offered a token state with virtually no sovereign rights.

In concluding, these views on the Dahiya Doctrine and Hannibal Directive can be regarded as specific to the use of international force by Israel against its adversaries free from any sense of obligation to show respect for settled international law or critical public opinion. These formulations can also interpreted as metaphorical illuminations of Israel’s distinctive approach to the pursuit of its national interests and security as a state among states. It is distinctive because its openness and rejection of the normative order of law, morality, and institutional authority that is widely treated as the basis of global governance. This enactment of 21st century settler colonialism is taking place in a global setting that denies the legality of colonialist claims and affirms the rights of resistance to those subjugated, much less victimized by apartheid, atrocities, and now a genocide adopted vengefully and as the ultimate instrument relied upon to ensure ethnic dominance.

2. How does the Dahiya Doctrine fit into the prevailing laws of war?

3. How is the Dahiya Doctrine being implemented by the Israeli military in Gaza?