Tag Archives: Politics

Pursuing Justice Through Law: Edward Said, the Gaza ‘War,’ and Advocacy Jurisprudence

9 Mar

[Prefatory Note The post below is long. The article is devoted to several of my recent central concerns. It was initially published in Global Community:Yearbook of International Law and Jurisprudence, superbly edited by Giuliana Ziccardi (Oxford, 2023). Comments and conversation warmly invited. Adapted from annual Edward W Said Memorial Lecture entitled “The Enduring Legacies of Edward Said,” The American University in Cairo, Nov. 4, 2023]

Pursuing Justice Through Law: Edward Said, the Gaza ‘War,’ and Advocacy Jurisprudence

Richard Falk

Abstract

An exploration of forms of interaction bearing on the assessment of advocacy jurisprudence. This entails underlying reflections on relations between

scholarly identity and public engagement as contextualized by Israel’s military response in Gaza. to the October 7 Hamas attack, featuring a comparison between partisanship in legal inquiry and in the interpretation of literature. It also involves a jurisprudential orientation that presupposes the inevitability of partisanship and favors an explicit acknowledgement rather than pretensions of objectivity, which implies my bias against legalism and its replacement by a disciplined insistence that political and moral contexts be brought into the open. The overall rationale for such an approach is to seek a better alignment between law as practice with justice as the embodiment of humane values exhibiting universal criteria. Although these considerations apply to any legal system, the preoccupation of the article is with conceptions and applications of international law.

Pursuing Justice Through Law: Edward Said, the Gaza ‘War,’ and Advocacy Jurisprudence*

Richard Falk**

Prelude

My career as a teacher and writer on international law has been devoted to realigning law with justice, which involved identifying and deconstructing Orientalist biases that reflected early European tendencies to use law to advance geopolitical interests while simultaneously promoting a llegitimating ideology of civilizational and racial superiority with countries associated with the Global West.[1] Of notable prominence in this regard, was the use of international law to accord legal respectability to European colonialism, including settler colonial offshoots in North America, Australia, and New Zealand. Jurists played their part by validating colonial relationships and obscuring the cruelties of colonialist behavior in many settings, including the acceptance of practices and policies now proscribed as ‘genocide’ but were treated neutrally as falling into the domain of conflictual politics, that is, beyond the limits of legal accountability so long as the perpetrators were white Christains and the victoms were persons of color. Only when the victims were ‘European’ as with the Armenians (1915) and later, the Jews, was the idea of criminalizing such behavioral patterns given a name and taken seriously as ‘the crime of crimes.’ Yet the racist/civilizational elements have not been fully eradicated as the political violence in Gaza illustrates where the Palestinian victims are dehumanized and the Israeli perpetrators are given legal cover by speciously inapplicable claims of self-defense.

In the course of seeking concretely to align law with justice I often found greater inspiration and kinship less with my law colleagues in the Global West, with some notable exceptions, and more  with what we now identify as dissenting public intellectuals in such cognate disciplines as cultural studies, history, humanities, and social science. In this personal professional trajectory I found Edward Said’s work and public life to be inspirationally congenial as well as motivated by similar humanistic goals that I loosely associate with justice, an admittedly subjective category that needs to be explicated in concrete circumstances.[2]

There are admittedly unsettling features of such a jurisprudential standpoint. The epistemology underlying such a viewpoint adopts certain juridical points of light while rejecting others and interprets them in context, such as the prohibitions imposed on genocide, apartheid, and ecocide, or the Charter llimitations on the use of force in international relations. In almost every concrete instance there is room for contradictory interpretations of what the law prescribes, suggesting that all assertions of unlawfulness or humanistic claims of justice involve advocacy, either for or against fand seek distance from the artificial clarity insisted upon in mainly prevailing legal traditions that strive for an ideals of objectivity.[3] Those that do government lawyering, perhaps motivated by ideology, ethical conceptions, or notions of stability and balance, are similarly selective in interpreting facts and law so as to ensure that international law conforms to their preferred foreign policy commitments. Law functions in such settings as a source of justification, and the articulation of intellectual support in scholarly or journalistic settings is also premised on advocacy jurisprudence, although typically disguised for the sake of persuasiveness. Such work is performed by what might be called ‘assenting public intellectuals’ who characteristically have access to the most influential media platforms as well are welcomed in the corridors of government. To reverse the slogan of dissenters, it is a matter of ‘power talking truth,’ which perceived by oppositional tendencies in civil society as legal cover for state propaganda.

It is my intention here is to discuss law and geopolitics in the inflamed atmosphere of the ongoing high intensity violence taking place in Gaza, alleged to be a response to the Hamas attack in a series of Israeli border communities on October 7, 2023. Edward Said’s life and work as a Palestinian public intellectual living in America seems highly relevant to gain insight into my underlying objective of achieving a better alignment of law and justice. Justice is here conceived in a first approximation as overcoming the hegemomic, hierarchical, and racializing nature of international law in its historical, cultural, and political roles as validating the civilization behavior and biased of the Global West/ A second approximation by reference to contemporary instruments of international human rights law, international humanitarian law, international criminal law, as well as the Nuremberg Principle and certain provisions of the UN Charter.[4] A third approximation occurs when a judicial tribunal issues a judgment that draws conclusions as to the law on the basis of considering the positions advocated by the contending parties. A fourth approxiximation occurs at levels of enforcement and accountability.  

Without the strong support of Proofessor Giuliana Ziccardi, as the exceptional veteran editor of the Yearbook I would not have had the courage to attempt to link what was originally a lecture on the life and legacy of a great public intellectual in conjunction with my efforts to align law with justice in international public discourse and even more so in the behavior of sovereign states. 

Edward Said’s relevance

It would be insensitive to any remembrance of Edward to frame my reflections on his legacy without also highlighting the uncertain, presently unknowable significance of the extreme gravity of the historic tragedy deeply afflicting the entire, previously long abused civilian population of Gaza explained and now justified by Israel as a response to the Hamas attack of Oct 7th. With each passing day of devastation and atrocity associated with Israel’s military attack, the Hamas provocation, terrible as in its own way it was, it seems increasingly detached from Israel’s extended response. Israel tries to keep the connection to the attack relevant to its disproportionate response by stressing the plight of an estimated 240 or more hostages being held by Hamas, itself a distinct war crime, and by media reports about the deep fissures in Israeli confidence that they were living in a secure atmosphere.[5] Yet as far as public disclosure so far reveals, Israel’s government fails to negotiate a prisoner exchange, and engages in an an unlimited attack that does not seem to offer much of value in exchMy attempt is to reflect on Edward’s amazing legacy while contextualizing these remarks in the current agonizing encounter that are darkening the storm clouds that have long haunted the future of the Palestinian people.

A Few Words on Edward’s Life

When thinking about what aspects of Edward’s varied, vivid personality and wide range of valuable writings I first felt overwhelmed. I took the easy way out by deciding to speak somewhat generally about Edward’s extraordinary legacy that makes his life, ideas, and perspectives more relevant 20 years after his death than when he was alive. Few scholars gain by their publications Edward’s influential intellectual afterlife.

It is difficult to talk about Edward without understanding what he meant to convey in his praise for a dissenting ‘public intellectual.’ Edward’s wished to affirm those for whom their signature trait was truth-telling and bearing witnessing to performative evil, especially embodying the public authority and the power of the modern sovereign state.

In a revealing interview with Tariq Ali not long before Edward’s death he acknowledged some related worries particularly by what he called ‘the commodification’ of public intellectuals in the US, personified by the then media stardom of Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski, two smart persons who clearly antagonized him by using their screen time to advance an imperial agenda on behalf of their preferred American foreign policy. More generally, Said felt that the think tanks in Washington were stealing the thunder of progressive thought and the high quality of debate that he hoped to engender in university settings and academic writing. It is my sense that that we as citizens are daily exposed to a post-truth public discourse currently deployed, and relied upon, by many world leaders that is far more regressive and alienating than the deteriorating role of public intellectuals that had so concerned Said while he was still alive. Part of what makes this discourse historically now so menacing is that it is rarely challenged by high tech media even in the constitutional democracies that continue to proclaim their political virtues of welcoming debate and tolerating dissent, now best constued as an Orwellian trope that obscures more than it reveals.

It is impossible to consider Edward’s legacy without venturing comments on the experience and contents of his breakthrough book, Orientalism.[6] It was this book that brought Edward fame but also several (mis)readings that bothered him deeply. Edward’s culturally grounded erudite approachto the relations of the West to the Arab world was always nuanced, pointing to the diversities and cultural failings on both sides of the civilizational divide. This made reductive interpretations of such dualisms as speaking of ‘the Orient’ or generalizing about ‘the Orientalist’ deeply misleading. Of course, Edward may have contributed to the confusion by his hostility to Bernard Lewis and his Arabist acolytes’ presentations of the Islamic world. He found such cultural stereotypes well-suited to adoption by imperialists in the post-colonial West as a policy tool, but more because of their policy agenda than their embrace of negative stereotypes about the Arab world and its behavior. There were other scholarly voices in the West whose academic assessments Said found desrving of attention, and often congenial even if containing criticisms of various aspects of Arab behvior. In other words, not all who studied and wrote about the Arab world were guilty of the sins of Orientalism.

Said was most convincing when arguing that the literary works in colonial Europe gave a moral underpinning to colonizing mentalities. These works brilliantly analyzed by Said did, perhaps unwittingly, serve indirectly the dark designs of imperial activists, and still do. It was a major contribution of Orientalism to make many aware of the Orientalizing tendencies of those seeking to exploit the resources and manipulate the strategic outlook of Islamic World elites in the Middle East.

It is such an implicit framing of the Zionist movement of forced displacement and subjugation of the native resident population of Palestine that underpinned Said’s profound critique of Israel’s 1948 celebratory self-righteous narrative. This narrative for Palestinians will be forever memorialized as the nakba, of catastrophe and exclusion that was not only something that happened in 1948 but describes a process that has continued ever since, and is now is in the midst of one of its most traumatizing iterations. It is this Israeli sense of imperial destiny that is currently continuing the gruesome work of justifying forced displacement and dispossession of the Palestinian people living in northern Gaza, an undertaking done with distressing ferocity. The rationalizations emanating from Tel Aviv are situational, but the impact on Palestinian normalcy are similar, reawakening the nightmare of 1948. Yet in Orientalist centers of power of the West what shocks and angers most of the non-Western world as genocide is claimed to be permissible because characterized as a response to ‘terrorism.’[7] By the use of this word alone Israel frees itself from any need to claim it was acting within the law. Supposedly, the T-label confers on Israel a legal entitlement to forego any pretense that its response to the October 7 attack is proportional and properly restricted to military targets. Israel’s hasbara fictionalizes and distorts the realities of what is happening that either disseminates falsehoods or deflects attention from unpleasant truths.

In contrast, the Palestinians, and the Arab street and peoples of the Global Souh spread throughout the world, including many less educated people than the pro-Israeli policymakers in the West are not fooled. They are moved to take spontaneous action by fiery images of huge bombs dropped on crowded refugee camps and on hospitals filled to capacity with wounded or dead infants, children, and severely injured adults. The peoples of the world, including many in the Global West, are smart enough to believe what they see and put aside the propaganda that they hear, becoming enraged by the steady flow of lame excuses for atrocities put forward by apologists and genocidal ideologues in Israel and their powerful allies in the Global West.

As with Orientalism it would be perverse to address Edward’s legacy without revisiting his approach to Israel/Palestine struggle. The special resonance at this time is certainly worse than what Edward’s darkest imaginings anticipated when contemplating what was the future of Palestine and its people twenty years ago.

While Edward was alive, the unresolved conflict involving Palestine increasingly defined his identity as a public intellectual. As well, the sufferings of the Palestinian people caused him great personal anguish. Edward came to possess one of the few keys that if properly turned decades ago might have avoided much of the ensuing misery for both peoples, allowing Jews and Arabs, despite their historic missteps to learn to live together peacefully and justly, rather than engage in what has become a macabre death dance. Edward’s humanistic vision of what should and could have been now seems as remote as the most distant star in the galaxy.

The horrifying events of recent weeks in Gaza account for this less comprehensive treatment of Edward’s legacy, but is not meant to detract from the pertinence of Said’s legacy to the Palestinian fate. These days it would be escapism, indeed denialism, to downplay the preoccupying bloody atrocities occurring in Gaza. In my view, it is not only Palestinians that are the victims. By its recourse to overt genocidal behavior Israel and Zionism have also irreparably tarnished their reputation, and that of Jews generally, overshadowing the prior historic horrifying experiences of victimization endured by the Jewish people and modernizing successes of Israel. Critical observers long have understood that Israel’s gains were achieved at a great human cost. Israel is now putting itself at risk of being perceived the world over as the most disreputable pariah state of our time.

The catastrophic events daily unfolding in Gaza also encourage a departure from standard academic ways of remembering a cherished scholarly friend from a safe aesthetic distance. Previously I might have mentioned a few anecdotes that displayed Edward’s joie de vivre and essentially comic sense of life. He was great fun to be with despite frequently teasing friends and colleagues in challenging ways, especially expecting friends to do better, whether it was on a tennis court or by an engagement with the Palestinian struggle.

It was my good fortune that our lives touched one another at several levels. Such contacts were apart from the convergence of our shared political commitment to a just and sustainable peace between Israel and Palestine, and elsewhere. To begin with, we both had close ties to Princeton University (Edward thrilled my graduate seminar by taking over the class each year for one session, which had its downside as I had to teach those same students the following week). Edward’s political mentors, Eqbal Ahmad and Ibrahim Abu-Lughod were separately my close friends and the four of us formed a kind of braintrust on Palestine/Israel that met periodically in Edward’s Columbia office. Beyond this, we both over-indulged racquet sports pretending that their value in our lives was partly free psychotherapy. In addition, our children became friends. My first secret adolescent crush was inspired by the daughter of my father’s closest friend who mfany years later she married Edward’s PhD advisor at Harvard with whom he became a lifelong friend, with droll side effect of reconnecting me with this lapsed romantic phantasy of my youth.

Of course, there were also fundamental differences in our lives and identities, which seem relevant to the nature of Edward’s particular worldview and ways of ‘being-in-the-world’:

–Edward’s birth in Palestine, childhood in Egypt, and adulthood in America gave him that ‘out of place’ sense of exile that his early memoir made famous, an image which puzzled others who regarded him as a role model of super-success in academic America. Yet as his enticing autobiography makes plain his sense of not fully belonging anywhere, while emotionally confusing for him at times, allowed him to feel somewhat at home everywhere. This hybridity was integral to his envisioning of reality as combining an intense national outlook associated with his ethnicity to a high culture brand of humanist cosmopolitanism.

In contrast, I was spatially exclusively rooted in the American experience from birth, but as I grew to maturity, so much so as to tempt me to say that I was ‘out of place, in place.’ Gradually I became more marginalized almost to a point that could be labeled a form of voluntary ‘inner exile.’ This strange identity became even stranger when combined with a later sense of being a partial expatriate (mainly thanks to my Turkish wife and the time we annually spend together in Turkey);

–To summarize, Edward and I, in our different ways, despite our different life trajectories, were both inside/outsiders, never rejected by our surroundings but neither were we fully accepted or accepting; although ironically Edward increasingly nurtured and clarified his sense of belonging almost exclusively to the torments and dreams of the Palestinian nation, while I continuously diluted my taken-for-granted childhood sense of belonging to the American nation (and even more so to the American nation-state);

–undoubtedly the biggest difference between us was that Edward wrote Orientalism, with its worldwide persisting influence and impact, while I wrote books on international law that few read unless they were forced to do so by the few idiosyncratic progressive law teachers, always an endangered species in corridors of legal studies, at least in white settler colonial societies.

 Israel’s War Against the People of Gaza  

Despite the extreme grimness of the topic, as indicated, there is no responsible way to evade further commenting upon the horrifying Israeli response to the Hamas attack of October 7 as it relates to Edward’s legacy. This response dangerously reinforced by crucial diplomatic cheerleading and funding support by the United States, climaxing so far in the provocative movement of two aircraft carrier groups into the Eastern Mediterranean. Leading EU members along with the UK went out of their way to lend Israel a helping hand. In view of the ongoing genocidal saga in Gaza this is such a deeply disturbing and dangerous set of developments as to shape the present political consciousness of almost everyone. It has become as the bombs continue to fall in Gaza, especially in Middle Eastern venues, to consider anything other than this unfolding multi-dimensional crisis transparently and vividly portrayed day and night on TV, making the events in Gaaz the most globally transparent instance of genocide in all of human history.

I believe this change of emphasis from what I had originally intended is faithful to the personality, character, and commitment of Edward Said. He possessed remarkable gifts of merging analytical mastery with a passionate ethical/political immersion in the historical present. Confronting what is happening in Gaza, and how it illuminates what is wrong with Israel and the Global West would have certainly aroused in Edward the most intense response of outrage, not only directed at the genocidal policies animating Israel’s leaders cruelly carried out a series of massacres against a totally vulnerable and captive civilian population of Gaza. This ordeal is epitomized by the death, maiming, and traumatizing of every child of Gaza, an outcome of the documented bombing of hospitals, medical convoys, refugee camps, schools, UN buildings. This extreme devastation is further aggravated by the official blood curdling Israeli decree issued by Israel’s Minister of Defense a month ago that totally cut off all deliveries of food, electricity, and fuel to the already impoverished Gazan population, a community already heavily burdened by the world’s highest unemployment and poverty rates, a consequence of 16 years of an economy-crippling blockade. If this were not enough, the Israel attack was waged in a manner that accentuated these terrifying conditions, most unacceptably by the impossible forced evacuation ordering 1.1 million Palestinians in the northern half of Gaza Strip to abandon their homes and livelihoods to go South with no place to go, no safe way to get there, and once there with no place to live and no prospect of a job. This was a fiendish mandatory directive that could neither be followed nor ignored, a nightmare in real life beyond even Kafka’s darkest imagining.

I am quite sure that if Edward was addressing an audience anywhere in the world he would also vent his rage at the complicity of the US government and the refusal of the corporate media to fulfill its commitment to approach world news as if truth and reality were truly its mission. What we find in much of the top tier media in the West is a style of news coverage that is generally faithful to the biases of government policy that has been energetically promoting the dissemination of a pro-Israeli narrative throughout the ‘war’ on Gaza. These views are backed by belligerent government spokespersons and think tanks in Washington that continue even now to present the crime of ‘genocide’ as if it is an instance of justifiable ‘self-defense.’ Instead of giving some attention to responsible critics of Israel’s behavior, even realist mainstreamers like John Mearsheimer, Stephen Walt, and Anatol Lieven, the most respected TV news channels, such as CNN, repeatedly invite as their guests IDF spokesmen or leaders, and an endless stream of generals and Washington foreign policy experts in the West who tend to dwell on the tactical obstacles facing Israel’s unquestioned alleged mission of destroying Hamas as an organization and killing as many of its leaders as it can find. The commentary rarely complicates the portrayal of Hamas as ‘terrorists’ although it often meaninglessly and disingenuously cautions a defiant Israel to conduct its future operations within the limits set by international law and with due regard to the protection of civilians. This is a ridiculous bit of guidance given the complete failure to criticize Israel’s ongoing reliance day after day on Israel’s lawless tactics and decrees from its leaders that lend unquestioning support to the toxic action of its military forces, seem intent on inflicting devastating damage on the person and property of Gazan civilians with no established link to Hamas, and utterly contemptuous of critical voices.

If we are to gain a measure of objectivity it is necessary to deconstruct the main items of state propaganda that has muddied the waters of understanding Gaza violence throughout the Global West, while as noted not fooling the street protests throughout most of the rest of the world. Five points stand out in this regard:

     –first of all, the reductive presentation of Hamas as a terrorist organization when in fact it is the elected government of an Occupied Territory subject to the 4th Geneva Convention which outlines the obligations of the Occupying Power, with a special emphasis on the duty to protect the civilian population.

     –secondly, the manipulative identification of Hamas as nothing other than October 7 attack, which if it is as it seems to be, is certainly an undertaking, however provoked, fraught with extreme criminality and patent cruelly. The Hamas attack even if as barbaric in its execution as being portrayed, and on the basis of past reportage there is reason to be suspicious of Israeli battlefield justifications, overlooks other facts that more adequately delineate the true identity of Hamas. Hamas after being elected and taking control of the Gaza Strip from a corrupt and passive Fatah leadership associated with the Palestinian Authority has been administering Gaza since 2007 despite it being controlled by Israel as the world’s largest open air prison, its inmates further victimized by a punitive blockade years ago described by Israeli official advisors as explicitly implemented to keep all Gazans on a subsistence diet. Whatever else, Hamas is an elected political actor that since 2006 has been representing the people of Gaza, and as such is entitled to exercise rights of resistance although subject to limits set by international law.[8] Hamas earned legitimacy and Pa;estinian respect as a continuing and leading source of active resistance, something that has at least since Arafat’s death in 2004 eluded the international representation of the Palestinian people by the Palestinian Authority despite its well-known collaborative security relationship with Israel, especially resented in the West Bank in recent years.

It should be appreciated that the commission of a war crime, however heinous does not reduce a political actor to such an isolated act that make its reality reducible to an embodiment of terrorism. If this logic prevailed Israel would have been a terrorist movement from the early days of the Nakba in 1948, and many times over before and since.[9] Extreme crimes of a non-state and state actors were perpetrated by the Zionist movement before 1948, and by Israel subsequently. These documented crimes included ‘collective punishment’ (Article 33, Geneva IV) and ‘apartheid.’[10]

In the midst of the Israeli retaliatory fury the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, tried his best to overcome the good versus evil dualism of Israeli hasbara, as propagated in the West, by telling the assembled governments at the UN that the Hamas Attack, which he joined in strongly condemning, did not occur in a vacuum, which indirectly references Israeli crimes of oppression and Palestinian rights of resistance. For daring to speak truth to power Guterres was pilloried by Israel for suggesting, however mildly and indirectly, that Israel had severely provoked the people and Hamas leadership of Gaza for so long and cruelly that violent acts of resistance were the almost inevitable response, and as such called for self-scrutiny rather than a self-blinding orgy of vengeance. Once more Israel greeted criticism with an angry exaggerated response, demanding the resignation of Guterres and calling this self-evident truth a blood libel against the Jewish people. In this feverish pushback, it fortunately failed in its declared objective, and yet it achieved its most serious intended result of repudiating truth-telling and debate and shifting attention from the message to the messenger. What is remembered is not reminding governments of the context of the Hamas attack, but rather whether the call for the resignation of the Secretary-General was justified or not.

     –thirdly, even those seeking a post-Hamas role for the PLO and PA in Gaza with the status of being the sole continuing international representative of the Palestinian people, acknowledge an unspecified need for what is described as the ‘reconstituting’ of the PA. In coded language relying upon the abused word ‘moderate,’ it seems widely understood by Israel’s supporters as implying zero tolerance for the assertion of internationally certified legal rights of armed resistance and a low-profile advocacy of legal rights of Palestinians including the muting of objections to West Bank settlements and their further expansion. Such restrictions on Palestinian reactions to unlawful Israeli settlement expansion, land grabbing in the West Bank, and settler crimes against the occupied native population being carried out in an atmosphere of impunity and further often facilitated by the greenlighting of Israeli security forces to refrain from offering protection to Palestinians in the face of violent harrassment. Security restrictions imposed on West Bank political activity disappear when it is the Jewish settlers rather than the Palestinian residents that embark on a violent rampage that kills and wounds even those Palestinians who have sullenly adapted to their fate as a permanently oppressed people living according to the whims of an apartheid regime. It is instructive to compare Israel’s middle of the night terrorizing arrests carried out against stone-throwing children or their predatory attacks on Palestinian rituals associated with the harvesting of olives with the forbearance exhibited toward the lethal violence of the Jewish settlers;

     –fourthly, this settler phenomena, itself a direct, defiant, continuous, and massive violation of Article 49(6) of Geneva IV, is the current combat front line of Zionist militants who have long sought sovereign control over the West Bank, and its encouragement is directly subversive of any prospect of a two-strate solution, which despite this, remains the international mantra of advocates of a peaceful solution. One is led to wonder whether this advocacy is a cynical recogniztion of the futility of exerting real pressure on Israel or an example of evasive and naïve wishful thinking. In this sense, as with a skilled magician, some Israeli leaders seem content to have public attention preoccupied with Gaza rather than paying critical attention to the real endgame of Zionist maximalism, which centers on achieving Israeli sovereign control over the West Bank, the only part of ‘the promised land’ yet to be reabsorbed into the Jewish supremist, apartheid state of Israel. While we rightly weep over the acute suffering of the Gazans, we should also be taking a hard look at the simultaneous tolerance, more accurately interpreted as encouragement, by Israel’s leaders of escalating settler lethal violence and ethnic cleansing politics in the West Bank.

As with Gaza, the Israeli settlers are not shy about revealing their goals by way of menacing threats directed at the Palestinians. It went almost unnoticed in the Western media that after a recent violent settler demonstration in the West Bank, leaflets were affixed to Palestinian cars in the neighborhood with a simple chilling message ‘leave or we will kill you;’

     –fifthly, it needs to be stressed that the present unity government in Israel is put before the world as a temporary ‘war’ response to Oct. 7.  It was intended to underscore the war narrative, and the need to overcame earlier sharp divisions among Jews about the nature of the Israeli Jewish state. It seems true that the current unity government reflects a broad ethnic consensus among Israeli Jews that ‘vengeance’ without restraint was justified in response to the Hamas attack, and indeed alleged necessary if Israel was to avoid future attacks. More tangibly this meant for those so believing, finding an alternative to Hamas to administer Gaza in ways that curbed Palestinian militancy, whether from Hamas or other Palestinian groups of which Islamic Jihad is best known but not the only one. Liberal Zionists tend to argue that such a policing approach has almost no chance of succeeding on its own in restoring Israeli security unless tied to a peace proposal. To have any chance it needs to be combined with giving the Palestinian people a collective belief that a fair peace can be peacefully achieved within the framework of a two-state solution. Such an envisioned future presumes that Israel is finally prepared ‘to walk the walk’ of a two-state solution comprising at the very least inclusion of the West Bank and East Jerusalem as the capital of the new Palestinian state, as well of course as Gaza. As of now, such a future is the stuff of dreams, and lacks a grounding in the realities of either Israel or the US to be a viable political project.

I find this moderate option to be a totally dubious day after tomorrow scenario—most of all because the Netanyahu-led government emphatically doesn’t want it, and never has; it has almost been erased in our collective memory that the Netanyahu coalition that took control at the beginning of 2023 was generally described even in Washington as the most extremist government when it came to the Palestinians during the entire history of Israel. If Tel Aviv has its way, and now may have more latitude than in the past to establish ‘Greater Israel’ under the smokescreen of Gaza and geopolitical worries about a wider war further damaging the world economy and destructive of fragile regional stability. I firmly believe that this total rejection of Palestinian territorial grievances and rights under international law is at the core of Israel’s real Peace Plan.[11]

Even in the highly unlikely event that Netanyahu is forced to resign for his responsibility in the Oct 7 intelligence/security failure, and the Netanyahu extremist coalition government collapses, this kind of future for Israel/Palestine seems a non-starter. Over half a million settlers in the West Bank will fight Tel Aviv rather than having their expansionist ambitions thwarted by implementing any kind of agreement that requires a durable and humane accommodation with the Palestinians. At minimum a sustainable peace presupposes a Palestinian governing authority that has credibility with most Palestinians and a freeze on further settlement construction or more radically, arrangements for a coerced settler withdrawal to within Israel’s pre-1967 Israel borders. It would also necessitate an Israeli willingness to dismantle apartheid within its own state and implement rights of return for long languishing Palestinian refugees in neighboring countries. Even mentioning the magnitude of these adjustments suggests that liberal Zionists living around the world in secure diaspora conditions have little insight into Israel’s resolve to complete the Zionist Project on its terms, and to accept a variety of political costs associated with such an ambition.

As of now the most probable morning after tomorrow setting is likely to produce Israeli victory claims in Gaza, Hamas nominally replaced by a secular grouping of moderate secular Gazans Israel thinks it can rely upon, and a continuing Israeli effort to secure sovereign control in the West Bank, which implies further measure of ethnic cleansing and is virtually certain to produce a new cycle of Palestinian resistance. The Palestinian response if faced with such prospects will undoubtedly shape new modes and styles of resistance reinforced by a greatly increased global solidarity movements at the grassroots level of people, with the UN essentially silent, and even Western governments wary of continuing unconditional support of Israel. If resistance is sustained in effective initiatives, and complemented by greatly increased support from the region and world, it might signal moves among Israeli elites of the type that produced the South African transformative response to the growing pressure from internal resistance and external solidarity initiatives to dismantle apartheid and constitute a new government based on inclusive human rights, including a long deferred Palestinian right of self-determination.

The outcomes in Gaza and West Bank, although weakening Israel’s standing regionally and globally may have the perverse effect of stiffening the Israeli willingness to risk everything by mounting a final campaign to erase the Palestinian challenge, and not primarily in Gaza, once and for all, even if this means a consummated genocide. It will be up to the mobilized peoples of the region, of the Islamic state, and of the Global West to rise up sufficiently to prevent the fulfillment of such a scenario. At present, there is no sign of this happening, but if the present onslaught in Gaza continues much longer and is accompanied by rising violence in the West Bank such an outcome cannot be ruled out.

Geopolitical Ramifications of Israel’s Campaign in Gaza

A first line of reflection in reaction to this series of alarming developments, is to step back from the immediacy of Gaza, and to suggest the relevance of the global context within which these events have occurred. Before Oct 7 and after the Feb 24, 2022 Russian attack on Ukraine some thoughtful persons began to be conscious that a contested geopolical transition was underway that could affect drastically the world order that emerged after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union. The outcome of such a transition could be something that either mitigated or aggravated the dangers of major warfare that were evident before Oct 7.

In the immediate aftermath of the end of the Cold War, there was a burst of enthusiasm in the West, not only for victory over the Soviet Union and what it stood for, but for a more peaceful and prosperous world order. Hopes were invested in a new kind of economistic global setting in which market forces associated with trade and investment would create a benevolent future for the whole world, geopolitical rivalries and militarism would recede, with peace and security anchored in the diplomatic and defensive military capabilities of the United States, given credibility by the war-prone foundation of ‘full-spectrum dominance.’ This sequel to the Cold War, often labeled ‘neoliberal globalization’ was preoccupied with the financialization of the world economy, with government responsibility for the wellbeing of people diminished, while a growing need to meet an ominous ecological challenge caused by the modern carbon-based economy and known to the public by the soothing words ‘climate change,’ a situation best handled by multilateralism, that is, cooperative problem-solving on a global scale.[12]

The real breakdown of this Global West vision came by way of a series of profound order-challenging developments: the spectacular rise of China between 1980 and 2020, the Russian return to the geopolitical stage, and the unresolved conflict between the Islamic world and the West playing out in the Middle East, with oil and Israel being the core issues. In these respects, the Ukraine War and the Gaza War are parallel pivotal developments in these confrontations between the forces of order and those of change that few persons remain reluctant to talk about. Those that champion a  post-colonial reenactment of Western world hegemony as the best attainable framework for peace and security that humanity tend to be advocates of victory over Russian designs in Ukraine,  restraint of China in relation to the future of Taiwan, and wish for Israeli success in overcoming Palestinian resistance the completion of the Zionist Project by way of the formal establishment of Greater Israel.

In effect, this is an argument in favor of a transition to a revival of a world order dominated by the interests, political rhetoric, and economic priorities of the Global West as presided over by a US-led coaltion. The was the case in the aftermath of the other two global transformations of the past century: the end of World War II and the fall of the Berlin Wall, each of which coincided with defeats of fascism and communism, rival ideologies with their own conflictual world order agendas.

If considered from this wider perspective, the current Gaza/West Bank ordeal should be viewed as a conflict that is not just about Israel and Palestine. It is a conflict about the stability and structure of the region upon which many countries in the Global West continue to depend in meeting their energy needs. It also showcases Western fears and hostilities toward Islamic pressures whether from migration or anti-Western radical forms of nationalism.

This may help explain why, beyond the influence of Zionism, the U.S. has so blindly and unconditionally thrown its support to Israel despite its aggressive and discrediting behavior that undermines trust in the quality of US world order leadership. Israel has managed so far to retain the visible assurance of Western support no matter what it does to the Palestinian people and however arrogantly it flouts international law and the UN Charter. This reflects its strength as a strategic asset of the West and also its extraordinary influence on the domestic political life of the US and UK.

Looked at from the opposite angle, Hamas struck on Oct 7 not only to remind Tel Aviv and the world that the Palestinians were not going to stand by quietly as their presence was being publicly erased. Erasure is what Netanyahu seemed to boast about when he flashed before the UNGA in September 2023 a map of ‘the new Middle East’ with Palestine erased as a territorial presence in the region. This ethnic erasure was given further concreteness at the muddying of the waters at the G20 in September 9-10, 2023 meeting in Delhi that projected a Middle East corridor from India to the Arab World. Such an undertaking was widely interpeted to assume normalization of relations with Israel and the removal of Palestinian grievances from any relevance to this new policy agenda of the region.

The Middle East role in this transition from the post-Cold War reality has been openly ideologized as a new and latest phase of the West’s historic struggle against a reconstituted ‘axis of evil’ which the French leader, Emmanuel Macron, advocated within the framework of anti-terrorism. He put forward this controversial interpretation of world political trends while on a solidarity October visit to Israel during the attack on Gaza, in effect an anti-Islamic coalition of the willing was so overtly proposed in mid-October. He sought to downplay his openly civilizational initiative as an ‘anti-Hamas coalition,’ claiming resemblances to the anti-Daesh (or ISIS) coalition that emerged as a reaction to the US/UK invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003, which included the dismantling of Iraqi armed forces. Macron seemed to magnify the already terrible drama of good and evil playing out in Gaza by referencing the connections with Hezbollah and Houthis, but also Syria, and above all Iran. Perhaps, also, it was Macron’s way of ingratiating himself to his Israeli hosts by deflecting attention away from the terrible happenings in Gaza to a wider conflict in which Israel was managing the conflict zone on behalf of the West.

This recourse to a systemic explanation of the Hamas attack recalls the once fashionable ideas of Samuel Huntington who in 1993 alerted the world to an anticipated post-Cold War reconfiguration of world politics as ‘a clash of civilizations.’ Huntington expressed his doubts that peace would follow the end of the Cold War, believing rather in the emergence of a new cast of adversaries hostile to the Global West.[13] Such a civilizational encounter would reconfigure militarized conflict rather than promoting peace, justice, development, and ecological prudence to form the basis of post-1989 world order. If we step back from the transparent immediacy of horror generated by Israel’s targeting of hospitals, refugee camps, and UNRRA buildings in Gaza, and interpret the wider reaches of this violent drama our picture of what is strategically at stake is considerably enlarged. Taking account of the relevance of Hezbollah, Houthi, Syrian, and above all Iranian solidarity with Gaza, as reinforced by the persisting large protest rallies in the city streets in Islamic countries, and indeed throughout the Global South, Huntington’s expectations of 30 years ago seem to be a prophetic prelude to Macron’s initiative as well as to the 9/11 attacks. Huntington’s words resonate anew as they formerly did when articulated just after the Cold War “[n]ation-states remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts will occur between nationals and groups of different civilizations…The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines of civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.”[14]

Others have elsewhere observed that the conflict between Western civilization and  Islam has a lineage that goes back 1300 years. Huntington’s ideological ally at the time was none other than Bernard Lewis who introduced an Orientalist twist by demeaning the whole of Islam as “a culture of rage” portraying those of Islamic faith, in Edward Said’s words, as nothing other than “a neurotic sexualized being.”

In a further twist, the Hamas leadership rationalized its attack on Oct 7 as a necessary way of conveying to Israel that the Palestinians were not going to consent to erasure. Further, in an inversion of the Western images of the Arab as responding only to force [see Raphael Patel, The Arab Mind (1973, updated 2007], Hamas argues with apparent plausibility that Israel only responds to force, and that Palestinian were led to mount an attack to awaken Israelis to the resolve of the Palestinians to resist erasure.

These contrary images of this clash of civilizational mentalities serves as an illuminating, if unconscious, backdrop for Israel’s Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, disgusting language describing the battle against Gazans in words that will be long remembered in the annals of genocidal rhetoric: “We are fighting against human animals, and we will act accordingly.” To so overtly dehumanize Palestinians, as well as  its demeaning negation of animals, could make the often insurmountable challenge of establishing genocidal intent easy for prosecutors to meet. Of course, the quoted phrase is further incriminating as its role seemed a public explanation of why food, electricity, and fuel would be totally cut off from any form of transmission to Gaza. All in all Gallant’s notorious decree is fully consonant with Israel’s practices during this past month of violence. It also gains relevance by the failure of Netanyahu or other Israeli officials to modify or in any way soften Gallant’s self-incriminating language. What Galant said is consistent with other statements by Israeli leaders including Netanyahu and by IDF tactics and public rationales confirming such attitudes toward the whole of the Palestinian people.

There is little doubt that the outcome of these two ongoing ‘wars’ will deeply influence the prospects for the stability and acceptance of Western worldwide post-colonial and post-Cold War economic, political, and cultural patterns of hegemony. The hawkish interpretation insightfully, if indirectly, regards the active and undisguised complicity of the Western governments in relation to Gaza as a matter of grand strategy rather than as a testimonial to Zionist influence. This is important to understand, although in light of the rising chorus of moral/legal objections to Israel’s behavior in Gaza, it is rarely publicly acknowledged.

What is new with respect to Samuel Huntington sense of ‘the West against the rest’ was his failure to take note of the Islamic challenge being spearheaded by non-state actors adopting the pre-modern means of combat at their disposal and largely focused on resisting further Western penetration rather than through violence overseas as was the onetime tactic of Al-Qaeda. What 9/11 and later Islamic jihadism added was a religious rationale to resistance and conflict with the West whose identity took largely non-state forms. In effect, the  geopolitically phrased assessments of Huntington acquired a moral fervor.

Instead of waging a geopolitical war to determine global power alignments, the war against Hamas can be, as Macron intimated, also internalized giving a fresh stimulus to European Islamophobia and anti-migrant politics. Even during the Cold War the Russians were never demonized as a people or was their civilization demeaned, partly because they were after all white Christians not ‘human animals.’

A politics of demonization, although used in an inflammatory way by Biden in relation to Ukraine, was confined to the person of Vladimir Putin. The main argument consisted of self-serving legalistic rationalizations for defending Ukraine, while excluding from consideration such contextual issues as prior internal violence against the Russian-oriented minority in the Donbas oblasts along with Kyiv’s repudiation of the Minsk 2014-15 agreements, and NATO’s increased engagement with the country’s security policies after the Maidan Coup in 2015.

There are revealing similarities in the Global West responses to these two violent conflicts that are bound to have transformative influences on the future of peace and security in the world. Those who favor a strong material and diplomatic commitment to Ukraine, as with those showing unconditional support of Israel, become hysterical if provocations of Russian aggression or the pre-history of the Hamas attack are taken seriously into account. This is because a fair appraisal of these two contexts subverts the high ground of moral purity and political justification implicit in the militarist modes of response, as well as rendering ambiguous the presume clarity of the claimed legal right of self-defense in the two instances.

The supposedly humanistic President of Israel,  Isaac Herzog, adopted the good versus evil framework of Netanyahu that refuses to make the slightest concession to the realities witnessed by the peoples of world. Herzog’s entire effort was to draw the sharpest possible distinction between Israel as the agent of a humane future for all and the Palestinians as the exemplification of the worldview of their barbaric adversary. His words featured as a guest opinion piece in the NY Time are an example of the one-eyed crusading civilizing vision that a broad spectrum of Israelis endorse:

Against our will, we in Israel find ourselves at a tipping point for the Middle East and for the world and at the center of what is nothing less than an existential struggle. This is not a battle between Jews and Muslims. And it is not just between Israel and Hamas. It is between those who adhere to norms of humanity and those practicing a barbarism that has no place in the modern world.[15]

It would seem, at this point, that what is being endorsed in the West, is a second coming of the ‘clash of civilizations’ worldview as further embellished by invoking the dualism of good and evil. It is blended with a last-ditch effort to sustain the unipolar geopolitical alignment that emerged after the Cold War amid a world beset by ecological instabilities as never before. Biden made a lame effort to ideologize the latter stages of the post-Cold War atmosphere by describing the current era as an epic global struggle between ‘democracies’ and ‘autocracies,’ but it was largely ignored as the claim was beset by obvious empirical contradictions of inclusion and exclusion.

The outcome in Gaza for Israel also has major implications for the region and world, including possibly inducing a normalizing diplomacy with Iran, and greater respect for the norms of non-intervention in internal societies, especially Muslim majority countries in closer conformity to Article 2(7) of the UN Charter. All things considered, the world will be safer and more secure if the politics of self-determination are managed nationally rather than by a US-led NATO directorate. As well, a positive reappraisal of conflict-avoiding invisible geopolitical fault lines such as were the pragmatic contribution of World War II diplomats at Yalta and Potsdam, and their renewal in the present altered circumstances of seeking conflict management.

Some Alternative Futures for Israel/Palestine

Against this geopolitical background, it seems now appropriate to make conjectures about what sort of future will emerge the violence in Gaza and how it might shape the destiny of Palestinians and Israelis, including the roles will be played by regional and global forces.

As the bombs continue to fall and rockets fill the air in Gaza, some reaching Israel, various ideas are being advanced by outsiders about probable and desirable futures. Three future patterns emerge at this from the rubble and the rising death toll:

–the pessimist’s future: Israel despite alienating people throughout the world retains sufficient hard power leverage to win the peace, establishing a Greater Israel that incorporates the West Bank, reconstitutes the governance of Gaza under a Palestinian Authority leadership to serve as the sole representative of the Palestinian people, possibly even looking to recognize a Gaza micro-state as ‘Palestine.’ I think that this outcome would not satisfy internal or international demands for an acceptable Palestinian solution, and would not end or even mitigate the apartheid nature of present Israeli governance or inhibit resistance activities on the Palestinian side;

–utopian envisioning: holding Israel responsible for the criminality of its Gaza campaign, requiring accountability of the main perpetrators for their crimes and imposing reparations for damage done to Palestinians homes and property; acknowledgement by the Israeli President and Prime Minister of the historic wrongs done to the Palestinian people by the Nakba and subsequent abuses, a point stressed by Edward Said and others with the accompanying sentiment ‘There will never be peace until there is such an acknowledgement is made.” Democratic secularism in a unified or co-existing states based on no ethnic nor religious criteria, featuring democratic elections, and human rights. A right of return of all Palestinian refugees and their descendants. Zionism would revert to the Balfour ethnic pledge of a Jewish ‘homeland’ but no state. The fact that something analogous along these lines happened in South Africa suggests that it could happen in Israel/Palestine, but it seems far beyond the reach of practical politics at present, although the Israeli NGO, International Committee Against Housing Demolition (ICAHD) has circulated a roughly comparable proposal in early November 2023;

–stalemate renewed: a return to the status quo preceding the Hamas attacks, with modifications, but apartheid, border control and blockade roughly as before, resistance continues, global solidarity intensifies in ways that gradually shift the balance of forces in a Palestinian.

None of the Oslo hype clouds the present search for final outcomes of the Palestinian struggle to attain its long denied basic rights as a people and nation. Yet for the foreseeable future the outlook for peace remains dark, including in, maybe especially in Israel.

Concluding Remarks

I would like to believe that Edward would have agreed with most of what I have said, although among his many virtues, was that of intellectual independence, which on occasion could be experienced as a certain cantankerousness. It is entirely possible that after Edward listened to these remarks would approach me after these remarks with a scowl and his half ironic, half serious putdown:  ‘Richard, you can’t be serious.’

Despite my intention to be engaged, my words may still have come across as too academic. Yet I must reaffirm that the events of the last month have resulted in the most tormenting emotions that I have ever experienced in reaction to public events. I confess that to some, my rather academic style may seem designed to hide partisanship. To counter such an impression I will conclude by removing any doubt as to where I stand.

I firmly believe that this is a time for persons of conscience to take action as well as to pierce the propaganda manipulating feelings, perceptions, and allegiances

It is past time to confront the double standards and moral hypocrisy of the Global West’

It is also a time to mourn and grieve the terrible human costs endured by the people of Gaza, but also a time to show solidarity with those seeking peace and justice at great risk

And finally, this is a time to repudiate the horrors of warfare and political violence, the disgrace of genocide, and better arrange our lives and organize our collective endeavors on the power of love, courage, struggle, justice, and hope.

Concluding Remarks

As jurist, citizen, and human rights activist, the issues of aligning law in the books with justice in the life of Palestinians has both tested my commitment to a word order in which law and justice become closely aligned. This cannot happen so long as the UN and the management of power and security is left to the priorities of geopolitical actors, at present the US, China, and Russia, particularly if their relations are strained by the emergent struggles particularly evident in relation to Ukraine and Taiwan. The US seeks to retain the unipoarity—that is, the exclusion of other geopolitical aspirants from the managerial roles of global security—in the face of growing challenges not only from Russia and China, but also from the BRICs and a realigned Global South.

The lives of dissenting public intellectuals whether rooted in the scholarship of the humanities, at which Edward Said excelled, or the academic engagements of a social scientist devoted to the alighment of law and justice, the imperatives of values, thought, and action need to be fused and their impact on governmental and UN actors dramatically increased if world order challenges are to have any chance of being addressed in humane and effective ways. In a constructive sense, all legal analysis rests upon disclosed or suppressed what I have characterized as ‘advocaacy jurisprudence.’ Such an assertion builds on the work of legal realism and critical legal studies, and in keeping with the Lasswell/McDougal explicit endorsement of liberal constitutionalism as the guiding principle of constructing legal outcomes, although slightly disguised by their claim of a scientific social science epistemological foundation for their normative preferences.


* Adapted from Edward W Said Memorial Lecture: The Enduring Legacies of Edward Said

The American University in Cairo, Nov. 4, 2023


[1] My jurisprudential orientation accords with and is influenced by Noura Erakat pathbreaking JUSTICE FOR SOME: LAW AND THE QUESTION OF PALESTINE (2019)

[2] Others I would mention in the ssame spirit are Noam Chomsky, Daniel Ellsberg, Cornel West, David Ray Griffin, and from a distance, Albert Camus, Jean-Paul Sartre, Bertand Russell, Mohatma Gandhi, and Martin Buber. Within my disciplinary orientation of international law, I found the critical work and normative perspectives of TWAIL (Third World Approaches to International Llaw) as a compatible complement to the work of jurists in the Global West working toward a similar realignment of law and justice as are dissenting public intellectuals. In this regard I would mention Asli Bali, Noura Erakat, Darryl Lee, Lisa Hajjar, Victor Kattan, and Penny Green as currently active examples in the US/UK setting.

[3] See the influential writings of Hans Kelsen and the many conscious or unconscious Kelsenites. Also relevant is the writing of Max Weber trying to curtail the influence of religion in policy formation and give way to Enlightenment values privileging science. In some attempts to objectify a preferential set of values the issue of subjectivity is shifted but not eliminated. See Hans Kelsen, Principles of International Law (2003) The most notable undertaking of this sort was attempted by the New Haven School of International Law, as principally propounded by Harold Lasswell & Myres S. McDougal at Yale Law School. See their Jurisprudence for a Free Society (1991)

[4] By ‘first approximation’ I want to again emphasize that legal norms are not self-elucidating. Their ambiguity is

somewhat arbitrarily overcome by leaving the authority to finalize the interpretation of norms to judicial bodies.

The dissatisfaction among liberals about the outlook and judgments of the US Supreme court in recent years reveals tensions in the alignment between law and justice. During the Warren Court it was political conservatives that were distressed by what they regarded as misalignment of law and justice. 

[5] There are enough discrepancies between the initial Israeli account of the Hamas attack and what actually happened on Oct 7 to support the appointment of an international commission should be arranged to produce a trusted objective and comprehensive account of what actually happened on that tragically eventful day.

[6] Edward W. Said, Orientalism (1978)

[7] No words in political discourse are more manipulated than are ‘genocide’ and ‘terrorism.’ The former

to criminalize dehumanizing behavior, while the later suspends the laws of war be dehumanizing those

that use political violence as an instrument of armed struggle, with more or less justification.

[8] Although indefinite in its contours, international law authrorizes armed resistance to oppressive rule. See UN General Assembly Res. 2625 (1975).This makes the Hamas attack to be a hybrid event, both containing war crimes and a resistance rationale. This rationale points to the failure to find a peaceful solution after more than 75 years.

[9] See Thomas Suarez, How Terrorism Created Modern Israel (2016)

[10] See Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the International Crime of Apartheid, 1973; recently documented by Michael Lynk 2021 report to the HRC in his role as SR, Michael Lynk in Richard Falk, John Dugard, Michael Lynk, PROTECTING HUMAN RIGHTS IN OCCUPIED PALESTINE: WORKING THROUGH THE UNITED NATIONS (2023), 297-312; also the authoritative reports of the UN’s ESCWA, and NGOs Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and B’Tselem.

[11] This reasoning of mine should be compared to the proposals published on October 22, 2023 in Foreign Affairs by the former PA Prime Minister, Fayyad Salam ideas.

[12] For ellaboration see Richard Falk, PREDATORY GLOBALIZATION: A CRITIQUE (2001)

[13] Samuel P. Huntington, “The Clash of Civilizations,” Foreign Affairs 72: 22-49 (1993)

[14] Ibid, Note 13.

[15] The President of Israel: Isaac Herzog, “This Is Not a Battle Just Between Israel and Hamas,” NY Times, Nov. 3, 2023.

Genocide & Empire: Geopolitical & Geoeconomic Dimensions

24 Jan

Welcome, everyone. My name is Dr. Piers Robinson. I’m the research director for the International Center for 9/11 Justice. Today we are holding a symposium on geopolitics and the war on Palestine, titled Genocide and Empire.

Now, IC911, for those of you who aren’t familiar with this organization, is a nonprofit organization which has been set up in order to research and investigate issues surrounding 9/11—the 9/11 event. As you can see on the screen, we are engaged in a variety of activities, including public education—getting information out about what happened on 9/11 in a recent film, Peace, War and 9/11, on the late Graeme MacQueen, which people can view for free. 

We’re also engaged in activism—supporting, for example, the Campbell family in their quest to gain a new inquest into the death of Geoff Campbell on 9/11.

And we’re also involved in facilitating and encouraging research into 9/11-related issues.

And we have The Journal of 9/11 Studies, hosted at IC911.

Now, one of our remits is to understand 9/11 better, to educate people about what happened on 9/11, but also to look at the consequences of 9/11. And, obviously, 9/11 itself was a key initiating point for a series of regime-change wars in the international system—in the Middle East primarily.

And you can see there on the slide—just as a little reminder here of the relevance of 9/11 to what we’re seeing today in the Middle East, in Israel and Gaza—these are two documents produced by or released by the Chilcot Inquiry in the UK and the communications between Tony Blair and President George Bush.

At the top there you can see discussion about Syria and Iran and a discussion about when it is optimum to engage each of these countries militarily. The quote there is: Well, if we’re going to topple Sudan, if that’s our priority, then we better do that with Syria and Iran in favor or acquiescing, rather than hitting all three at once.

And what you see there, obviously, is a discussion about the regime-change wars, which we know were being planned prior to 9/11 and which are documented in the Chilcot Inquiry and from other people who’ve spoken out about that. This was the planning that was going on in the immediate aftermath of 9/11—within weeks of that.

You can see below there’s another truth quote from the same document: Tony Blair talking about the Middle East being set for catastrophe—again, immediately in the aftermath of 9/11.

And this really goes to highlight the importance of 9/11, I think, in terms of setting the scene for what we’re seeing now in the Middle East. The conflict and the violence and the potential for escalation we have at the moment is very much part of events which were set in a process, which were set in train, around 9/11.

So, this is highly relevant for us as an organization to be looking at. We want to look at 9/11. We want to look at the consequences and also help people understand events today through an understanding of 9/11.

And so, this is what we have today. Today we’ve brought together a fantastic lineup of experts to speak about the current situation between Palestine and Israel and the situation in the Middle East.

We have Professor Richard Falk, who is an expert on international legal matters. He was UN rapporteur for Palestine in the United Nations.

We will also have Atif Kubursi, who’s a professor of economics—an emeritus professor from McMaster University. [Atif] also worked in the United Nations. He’s going to be talking through some of the resource and economic components of the conflict we see in the Middle East.

We have Kevin Ryan, who is a board member of IC911. He’s a 9/11 whistleblower and currently editor of the Journal of 9/11 Studies. He’s going to be talking about structural deep events and state crimes against democracy.

We’re also going to have Dr. Aaron Good, who runs the American Exceptionpodcast. His thesis, his PhD, was on American Exception, Hegemony and the Tripartite State. And he’s going to be talking about understanding October 7 and the current situation in the Middle East, as it potentially is a deep state event.

And finally, we will have Vanessa Beeley, an independent journalist who has deep and rich expertise on the Middle East. She’ll be talking about the broader geopolitical picture and where things are going in the Middle East.

We will finish with a roundtable discussion.

Genocide and Self-Defense under International Law

ge richard falk

As a supplement, read Professor Falk’s latest interview: “Probing the Depths: Roots of Unspeakable Crimes in Gaza–Criminality and Complicity

Dr. Piers Robinson:

Now I shall turn straight to Professor Richard Falk, who is going to be talking to us about genocide and self-defense under international law. As I mentioned before, Richard is a renowned international expert, the rapporteur on the Palestine case for the United Nations, and he’s going to talk to us about the question of genocide, what we’re seeing at the moment, the question of self-defense, and where we’re going in terms of the International Court of Justice and the South African attempts.

So, Richard. . .

Professor Richard Falk:

Thank you, Piers. I’m very honored and pleased to be part of this panel, and I think it’s very crucial to link the genocidal events in Gaza—and in a sense in all of occupied Palestine—to the configurations of empire in the post-9/11, post-Cold War international environment. And not forgetting the Ukraine dimension while we focus on the Middle East.

The Hamas attack on October 7 is itself surrounded by suspicious circumstances of Israeli foreknowledge—and therefore allowing these horrific events to unfold and being very slow to respond to the actuality of the attack, and the quickness with which it converted a limited instance of Palestinian resistance under Hamas’ leadership into the pretext for launching this vengeful and genocidal onslaught on the civilian population of Gaza.

That’s a shocking sequence of events on its own. And then, when you consider the magnitude of the violence that’s been inflicted on Gaza and the population—the whole of the population—you have to understand that this is a horrific, transparent, and, in a way, original confrontation with the crime of crimes: genocide.

In the past, genocides have been known mainly in retrospect and indirectly. We have not had the experience unfolding before our eyes on nightly television. The imagery of bombing hospitals and refugee camps, of babies being buried in mass graves, is something grotesque that not only is occurring as a result of Israeli actions, but enjoys the complicity of important countries in what I would call the settler colonial states of the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, plus the main members of NATO, which include Germany, the UK, and France, who are also colonial powers. And so, this has to be seen as part of the post -colonial effort by the global white West to maintain hegemonic control over the whole world system.

If we look at the casualties and the damage that has been done in Gaza up to this point, in the three months that these horrendous events have unfolded, and multiply them proportionately to the population of a country like the United States, which has supported, materially and diplomatically, at every stage so far, the occurrence of such violence, we would multiply the death totals of over 20,000 by 175 to take proportional account of the relative populations. That’s a shocking total and [is] predominantly civilians, and seemingly having only a marginal connection with Israeli security.

If Israeli security was the dominant motive, they would do differently what might prevent some similar act of resistance to take place in the future. They would, first of all, correct the bureaucratic process that led to the so-called “security lapse.” That would probably be sufficient to reestablish their security. They would also try to accommodate the needs of the people of Gaza by lifting the fifteen-year-old blockade and make any acts of resistance seem less like a jail breakout than an isolated instance of violence.

When we look at the Genocide Convention itself, we see that both Israel and the United States and the leading NATO members and those settler colonial states are all parties to that convention, which was viewed as a key element in creating a kind of wall against a repetition of what happened in the Holocaust. And what we’ve seen, not only in Gaza now but elsewhere, in Rwanda, in Myanmar, is an inadequate capacity to implement the intention of the Genocide Convention to prevent its recurrence.

But what is clear is that the facts of bombing so indiscriminately and so persistently and disproportionately, in opposition to international humanitarian law, the civilian population of 2.3 million Gazans creates the factual foundation of the genocidal allegation. That factual allegation is reinforced by the statements of the highest Israeli leaders—Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Herzog, and Minister of Defense Yoav Galant.

All of them have articulated views about the total decimation and devastation of Gaza, the destruction of up to 80% of the housing in northern Gaza, which was part of a deliberate policy of forced evacuation with the evident intention of ethnic cleansing. In other words, all the evidence we have points to the fact that the October 7 Hamas attack served as a pretext for the completion of the Zionist project by the dispossession by Israelis of Palestinians living not only in Gaza, but [also] in the West Bank, which has experienced unrestricted settler violence in this period and has also suffered unusually severe casualties during this time.

So, what we have is a transparently evident instance of genocide that has been defended very weakly and without substantive argument as a case of self-defense. We know from international law that self-defense does not allow the state that claims it to engage in disproportionate and unlimited violence or to commit what would otherwise be crimes under the cover of claiming self-defense.

And, in this instance, the claim of self-defense is particularly weak, because Gaza and the West Bank are occupied territories under the administrative responsibility of Israel as the occupying power since 1967. Israel has not implemented the unanimous Security Council Resolution 242 back in 1967, which called upon it to withdraw to the ’67 borders, and instead has used that period to engage in unlawful territorial encroachments on the occupied territory of the West Bank through its extensive settlement network, which has 650,000 Israelis living there and is really the death warrant of any realistic hope that a two-state solution could be achieved in light of this kind of territorial ambitious expansionism.

So, it’s questionable under any circumstances that a claim of self-defense is appropriate in an occupied territory governed by the Fourth Geneva Convention, because, in effect, self-defense is only tactically available if the combatants are both in some sense political actors of an international status.

You cannot defend yourself against part of what you are administering within your own territory. You can make reasonable claims to establish security or to reestablish security. But, as I’ve suggested, Israel has not tried to do that.

As shocking as these genocidal crimes have been, I find as disturbing the complicity of these countries in the world that have held themselves before international public opinion as models of democracy, as champions of human rights, as supporters of the rule of law. For the United States to undermine its own reputation by supporting this sort of transparent genocide should be shocking to the peoples of the world—and has been, if one takes account of the popular demonstrations all over the world.

These acts of complicity go against the obligations of the Genocide Convention, which require parties to the convention, all of which encompass both Israel and the US as well as the members of NATO and the settler colonial states. All of them are expected, as a matter of law, to take what action is reasonably possible in order to prevent or disrupt the continuation of genocide. They are all perpetrating crimes as an accessory to genocide.

It is an act of shame that they have done little to distance themselves or to actively oppose the continuation of these developments and to use their leverage at the United Nations to disempower the Security Council that sought, by an overwhelming vote of 14-to-1, to establish a ceasefire weeks ago.

This is not only failing to prevent genocide, it’s a matter of facilitating genocide. That should be taken into our political imagination and our moral imagination when we think about accountability for the crimes that are being committed.

South Africa has recently initiated, under Article 3 of the Genocide Convention, its right as a party to the convention to call for the International Court of Justice to impose provisional measures of a character that would instruct Israel, as a matter of International Court of Justice authority, to immediately cease any kind of violent activity that is part of the crime that is being committed and would also consider whether Hamas should fall within the scope of such a crime.

This is a serious challenge both to the complicit countries to stand aside if the rulings that are expected in the coming weeks of the World Court do uphold the South African application that is calling for these immediate measures as a prelude to a decision on whether the allegation of genocide, which is contained in a 94-page document that goes through, in agonizing detail, the facts of genocide that have transpired in this period, starting with the day after October 7.

There is also the question of who will endorse this South African initiative. Turkey, so far, is the only NATO member that has endorsed it. Jordan and Malaysia have joined in that endorsement. And we notice that none of the European colonial powers and none of the settler colonial states have seen fit to uphold a judicial determination of whether action should be taken to prevent this genocide from going on.

So, what is presented to the world is a crisis of implementation and accountability. There’s no doubt that a crime of a high magnitude is being committed and indeed is virtually confessed to be committed, despite Israel’s record of defiance of international law throughout its occupation and its allegations that any criticism, wherever it emanates from, is an instance of antisemitism.

It called the International Criminal Court’s decision to investigate crimes by Israel alleged by Palestine subsequent to 2014, before these recent events—Prime Minister Netanyahu reacted by saying, “This is pure antisemitism,” as if the respected international institution is motivated by such base intentions.

Similarly, they’ve attacked the South African initiative as a blood libel against the Jewish people.

A blood libel was the kind of anti-Jewish allegation made in the early Christian period—that the Jews were guilty of murdering Christian babies. And it was genuine antisemitism of an extreme sort to make these false allegations.

But to contradict what we see before our eyes and call that a blood libel is itself something that suggests an unwillingness of Israel to accept any authority that challenges its policies, however unlawful and criminal.

And it has done that throughout the occupation. It has made life miserable for people like me, who acted as special rapporteurs that were expected to report as honestly as we could on violations of human rights associated with the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.

So, we have a situation where the prospects of implementing a favorable International Court of Justice decision against Israel will depend on the willingness of the Security Council to use its authority and to take the steps necessary to implement that decision.

And once again that will hinge on whether the permanent five members of the Security Council will either abstain or at least and thereby suspend their right of veto or actually vote in favor of implementing the findings and the orders of the International Court of Justice.

In the longer run, there seems to be a need for some kind of accountability procedure to address these crimes—both the crime of genocide as perpetrated by Israel and the crimes of complicity as led by the US and supported in various ways by the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.

So this is a crisis of not only conscience but of law and the protection of vulnerable people in a world that is beset by a variety of challenges, including the ongoing Ukraine War, and is seeking a new kind of managing the very power and security that doesn’t depend on the unipolar imperial authority that has been exercised by the United States since the end of the Cold War and the implosion of the Soviet Union. A new phase of international relations will emerge out of this crisis.

In bringing my remarks to a close, I would also say there’s a great danger that Israel will seek to widen the war in the region, because it will be cornered politically, which is beginning to be evident in some of the violence beyond the borders of Gaza itself.

And it’s cornered because it can neither prevail and convincingly declare some kind of victory that is credible nor can it afford to lose, given the investment it’s made in terms of its own law, the lives of Israeli soldiers and citizens, and the damage it’s done to its global reputation.

It’s no longer a legitimate state after this form of sustained behavior. It is condemned almost universally. The peoples of the governments that are condemning it are seeking to exert pressure for some sort of implementation. So, there is this moment of crisis and appeal to the peoples of the global West to rise in a way that exerts pressure on their own governments to take international law seriously, to promote, at this late toxic stage, justice for the Palestinian people.

Let me stop there.

Dr. Piers Robinson:

Thank you, Richard, for that forensic and unequivocal assessment of what is happening at the moment in relation to the question of genocide. We’ll also have many questions at the end in the panel discussion. It just strikes me that the weaponization of the term “antisemitism” I think is wearing thin given what we’re seeing in the Middle East at the moment.

That was a fantastic presentation. Before we turn to Atif Kubursi—for me to introduce him—I just want to send a quick reminder. People can ask questions for the panelists, and we will try to include some questions in the panel discussion at the end. And there’s an email link on the website showing where you can send the questions to. So please do feel free to send questions and we’ll try to field some of them at the end.

Oil, Canals and Trade Routes: Economic Factors Underlying the Ongoing Genocide

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As a supplement, read Professor Kubursi’s latest article: “This Genocide is also about Oil, Canals and Trade Routes

Dr. Piers Robinson:

Now, we turn to Professor Atif Kubursi, who is emeritus McMaster professor and an expert on economics.

We’ve had an extremely detailed and careful analysis of the legal situation, and Atif is going to talk to us about the economic underbelly of this conflict, trying to understand what we’re seeing at the moment in terms of questions of resources and so on.

To keep on time, I won’t go into too long an introduction to Atif. He’s a very renowned international expert in economics. As I said before, he’s worked in a United Nations capacity.

He has great expertise. We look forward to what you have to tell us now, Atif, about the economics of the situation.

Atif.

Professor Atif Kubursi:

Thank you very much, Piers, for your kind introduction. I’m delighted to be part of this distinguished panel here, and I see that my presentation is quite complimentary to what Professor Falk had presented.

The issue here is that the events that happened on October 7 and the justification and the reactions call into question some of these events in a way that asks why they happened—why did they happen the way they did. How a country that has such sophisticated, advanced technology and that is very concerned about security would allow something like this to happen. And for the reaction to take so long to come forward. And then the scale of the reaction and the onslaught—the incredible toll of the civilians—particularly children and women and all people. 

The issue, as Professor Falk mentioned, is part of the Zionist attempt to try, as much as possible, to complete, so to speak, the Greater Israel project and to expand and to grab more land. And then the declared objective is that we have to dismantle Hamas for the sake of the security of Israel and we have to liberate the hostages and we have to make sure that no future scale attempt of this sort would ever happen.

These are the declared objectives. But then, how would you explain this incredible carpet bombing, this huge reaction, this heavy toll, the likes of which we have never seen. Even Dresden did not suffer what Gaza has suffered. And the number of deaths and wounded. And the scale of transferring people from one side to the other is unbelievable.

But what’s more important are the undeclared objectives. What seems to be the case here is that there is an attempt to make Gaza unlivable. That there is really a way, in which Professor Mearsheimer, on December 12, has claimed that the objective here is to flatten, erase, destroy, make Gaza unlivable, transfer the population of Gaza, empty Gaza of its people.

But why would Israel seek this type of objective? The story here is that it’s only presented as if it’s part of that Greater Israel—the Zionist project that would not be completed until Israel is from the Euphrates to the Nile, as it has been expressed in many areas.

But the story is, there are a number of very credible and very substantive reasons that would make this project to be also in pursuit of the colonial economic advantages. I’m going to mention three major objectives and three major projects that would point out that Israel is seeking some economic gains here. The colonial advantage that has always been part of any colonial project is at play here.

The first and foremost objective is the control of gas in—where you see in the map—the Levant Basin. This Levant Basin is now home to about 122 trillion cubic feet of gas. And this is from the US Geological Survey. This has become extremely valuable, particularly in the aftermath of the destruction of Nord Stream 2 and the withdrawal of any supply coming from Russia in the aftermath of the Ukraine-Russian War.

And this area has also about 1.7 billion barrels of oil. It’s a shared resource. It’s shared between, as you can see, Egypt, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Cyprus. And in this respect, one would have expected that this shared resource would be one that would be managed collectively and in the interest of the collective number of countries that are riparian to this.

There are some very important characteristics about gas and oil and about energy that are really quite serious and fundamental. First and foremost, oil [and] gas as fossil fuels are nonrenewable, which means that any time you exploit them today you’re denying, forfeiting the right of future generations to exploit them.

The second, that because they are shared resources, it means, given that they are finite, nonrenewable, that if one party exploits this resource, less is available for the rest of us. And there is no question about it. This seems to be at play here, as I will show what happened with Israel exploiting the Meged oil fields in Area C in the West Bank.

And the other thing is that it’s a fugitive type of resource. Especially gas. It doesn’t stay in one place. The other thing: Being basically underwater, there is no guarantee that there is any consistency of the existence of the resource in terms of the political borders. It straddles all these borders, and they are shared things, in the sense that there was an agreement between Israel and Lebanon about the Karish and Qanaa. And many people felt that this was not really a very good agreement, because there is no way Lebanon, which would become able to produce and lift some of this gas and oil in five years’ time, would find anything. Because if these are really shared resources and Israel is using it now, by the time the Lebanese are able to lift, there would be probably nothing left. There’s no way you can prevent a party to use its only share.

The United States has the same similar situation in Oklahoma and Texas, where oil was found under the ground of many farmers and [other] parties. What they really found to be important—and this really was according to a great economist, Ronald Koz, who got Nobel Prize for it—is that you have to unitize. Unitize: By this we mean that no party is allowed to lift or to use this resource without the acquiescence and sharing with the rest.

And what would you do is you allow one party, on behalf of the collective, to exploit it in the most efficient way. Because if each one were to pierce a hole and lift it, it would dissipate the natural flow and become extremely expensive to do that. There would be basic, major reasons for conflict. Unitization would mean that it would be exploited on behalf of all. All the resources are now exploited by one party and representing everybody, and it would exploit it in the most efficient way. It would lift all the resource and sell it and put it in a kitty, in an escrow fund that would be divvied up among the different parties.

This is not what Israel is doing. Israel is trying to basically and fundamentally make sure that the Lebanese are not getting their fair share and making sure that Gaza is not getting any of its share.

And this is exactly what we see here. It is a situation in which Gaza . . . there are [see map] Marine 1 and Marine 2, and there is an incredible amount of gas, and it’s about only 20 nautical miles from Gaza. Also, in the Oslo II Accord, the Palestinians were given the right to exploit in their economic zone all the way, as you see in this picture, to the very end of that triangle. That should really be the amount that the Palestinians would use.

There were negotiations once it was discovered in 1999. The Ehud Baruch government tried to see that maybe there would be a way in which we could take this gas from the Palestinian wells and send it to Israel—to the Israeli electric company. And the contract was signed with the parties. At one time, Arafat took a group and there was a Lebanese group called CCC—the Consolidated Contractors Company—who invested money to build this pipeline. They would send it to Israel, and this would be put as part of the money that the Palestinian National Authority would use. 

Then Sharon came and said, “No way, we’re not going.” And there was a very evident group of Israeli companies that had lobbied the government, [paraphrasing], “You should not allow them to produce anything, because the money they’re going to get would be used to fund terrorism against us. No country should allow a pipeline of wealth that would be used against it.”

This was at the time where the Oslo Agreement was with the Palestinian National Authority, and they had already arrived at some arrangement. The story of the negotiations—they are detailed in my paper, and I can make it available for anybody to look at—suggests that Israel was trying basically, fundamentally, to deny the Palestinians any use of this resource, in much the same say it denied the Palestinians the use of their oil, which was in Area C of the West Bank. Many residents of the area near Meged said that houses were shaking and were damaged because Israel was literally drilling for oil, siphoning this oil that should really be legitimately used for the economic development of the Palestinians.     

And this is in contravention, as Dr. Falk has written and explained, that the occupier has no right to use the resources of the occupied people, only if it will be used to benefit the people under occupation. But here is Israel taking, siphoning all this oil for its own interest at the expense of the Palestinians’ ability to use this resource.

If this was not sufficient, there are other reasons, and these reasons are incredibly becoming now important and becoming very substantive.

At one time in the 1960s, the US had underwritten a project and got an American company to study the development of an alternative to the Suez Canal. At the time, Nasser had nationalized the Suez Canal and there were troubles from the French and British, who had attacked in 1956. But the story was that the Americans felt that there is no way they can live, accept, and feel comfortable about a very important canal such as the Suez Canal, to be in a way that would be totally outside the command and control and the full exercise of sovereignty of the Egyptians.

The Suez Canal is only 196 kilometers [in length], only 100 meters wide, 50 meters—sometimes less—deep, and allows only one-way traffic. If the traffic is going from south to north, from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, then there would be no chance for ships to come from the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal to the Red Sea.   

And there was a big problem—the problem being that it needs dredging very often, because it’s in a sandy geological situation and any sandstorm will really fill it up. It needs to be dredged, and it’s becoming quite costly to do that. As you can remember, just a few months back, a very important ship ran aground, and it took days and weeks and big losses, estimated at 10 billion dollars, to clear the canal. 12% to 15% of the world trade goes through this canal. And about 30% of the total container traffic goes through this canal. A bit of the oil that comes from the Middle East, particularly from the Gulf of Saudi Arabia, from Kuwait, from Iran and other countries in the Gulf, goes through the canal as it goes to Europe. And it saves three weeks of travel. I mean the area from Mumbai in India—or take it to China—all the way to London is about 17,000 nautical miles if you go around Africa, but if you go through the canal, you will find that there is really a major saving in time. You will be saving around literally 4,000 nautical miles, which would be about literally three weeks, as I mentioned.

And this is really a major saving in terms of the cost of transporting all these products and energy from the Gulf or from India or from China or from Japan or anything that world trade would be in a very substantive way impacted in the course [inaudible]. Some people are really saying that now, with the Yemenis trying to interfere into the free flow of these commodities going through the canal, are basically and fundamentally imposing a very high cost for the rest of the world. Most people are saying that prices of oil that had dropped to a very low level, now below 70 dollars, may really start to rise—and rise in a significant way.

The Ben Gurion Canal that was conceived in the ’60s, then lay dormant, and then, all of a sudden, the Israelis now are saying, Look, we’re going to build this Ben Gurion Canal, and it’s going to be 200 meters wide, which would allow two-way traffic. It’s going to be deeper by about 10 to 15 and some people say another 50 meters deep, and this would allow much larger, the largest ships that are now unable . . . particularly for the Americans and the Imperial West to have a free flow of their aircraft carriers going through.

Now this is a situation where, if you really build it, which would completely compromise the ability of Egypt to take advantage of it, Egypt derives about 9.7 billion dollars a year, 2% of the Egyptian GDP, and this is not a small amount, and the absence of other alternative, important economic drivers, Egypt would be hurt in a very fundamental way. 

The story here is that, if you look at this map that I have, the original plan was to go from Eliat, which is on the Red Sea, all the way to Ashkelon. But it is still within the reach of weapons in Gaza. And the best and most efficient way you could get this canal would be to go to a straight line, which is the shortest distance, and this would have to go through Gaza.

To a great extent some people are saying, “Okay, what does it really do?” It would save about 40 to 50 kilometers in space. But more important, if you go through the Negev, you’re going through sand. If you go directly through Gaza, the geological structure of the canal would be primarily into a rocky area, which would save all this incredibly cost of dredging, which would be continuous and would allow also to have a wider canal, a deeper canal.

In this respect, there is really a very serious threat that would be presented by this canal. And this canal could really be the most optimal geologically and the shortest distance, which is a straight line, to go directly to the north and Gaza or even southern Gaza, but this would require emptying Gaza.

So, emptying Gaza has now two dimensions:

One, you prevent anybody from Gaza ever claiming gas that would now be totally exploited by Israel in a very serious situation where now gas has become three to four times more valuable than it was a few years back because of the incredible need. Europeans are all coming to Israel in a way they never really came [before] in the hope of laying claim to some of this to replace the gas that they have missed because of the destruction [of Nord Stream], which raises the question of who destroyed Nord Stream and who will benefit from this destruction.  

The other one is that this canal would become really optimal and would be a real substitute for the Suez Canal to the extent that it is in that rocky area that would allow two-way traffic that would be deep and would not be requiring all this dredging on a continuous basis.

If these two [dimensions] are not enough to empty Gaza and to explain why the Israelis have been very adamant about making Gaza unlivable, destroying all the housing infrastructure . . . I mean, one of the ministers has suggested that now when we finish, we should not allow the Gazans to get to a single commodity that would be required for reconstruction. We should make sure they cannot reconstruct, because what we really want is for them to leave. And it would be—this is the farce—a voluntary departure. Of course, they don’t have any homes. But, hey, when you control the borders, you control access to everything coming in. That is really the genocide that Professor Falk was talking about.

This is basically—the intent of the Israelis is to make Gaza an empty space, to make it unlivable, to make sure that people are driven out. They have already . . . the day before yesterday, Israeli delegations went to Rwanda and went to Chad trying to persuade these two countries to accept massive transfers of Palestinians to them, promising them money, promising them weapons, promising support in any shape or form that would allow these to accept this transfer.

The Israelis are still bent on emptying Gaza—emptying Gaza by destruction of the people continuously. Every day you see this violent onslaught of killing en masse—a huge number of children and women.

One would wonder if this attack of “self-defense” is to prevent future events from happening. There is no question this violence is sowing the seeds of future violence. The only one certain aspect about violence is, it breeds violence. What you do today is likely to come back at you in the future. History is rife with examples.

If these two projects are not sufficient reasons to explain why the Israelis—though they have not declared it—have continued to be adamant about occupying Gaza, emptying Gaza, erasing Gaza, making it unlivable so that it would become a very safe place for the Israelis, to prevent them from using their gas, to prevent them from obstructing the most efficient possible way to replace the Suez Canal, there is the third one that’s coming also.

[This third project] is also playing into the hands of the American Empire. The Americans are adamant about creating an alternative to the Silk Road. The Silk Road is a project that China has sponsored and has invested heavily in and has devoted literally billions if not trillions of dollars to create this route that would take it from China all the way to Europe and the Middle East and Africa in a way that will allow the Chinese to sell their goods and services unimpeded and in no way to be subject to any control of the seas.

Iran was also one of the hubs on this Silk Road that would go from China through Asia, Pakistan, and then Iran and then Syria. These are the countries that the United States does not want to get any benefit from. And they persuaded, in some sense they succeeded, but they [inaudible] some doubts about this, that there will be now a multimodal connection between India. It goes all the way to Dubai, from Dubai to Israel, Israel to Europe, bypassing Iran, bypassing Syria, bypassing Egypt, bypassing many of the Arab countries in this.

And why would the Israelis go on such an expensive one? It’s because it’s underwritten by the Americans. The Americans seem to completely have an open hand when it comes to Israel.

At one time, and if you think I’m exaggerating, our friend, Mr. Biden, said that investing 3.6 billion dollars — this is only the amount of money that’s given to the military — is a gilt-edged investment and is purely a good investment. Good in terms of what? Investment is cost. But then it’s really returns. What are the returns America is expecting? They’re basically funding and using Israel as a hegemonic power in the Middle East that would serve to suppress and to contain and to emasculate any possible group that might really work with the Russians or Chinese or any contending and contesting power.

This is part of the hegemonic exercise of the empire and unipolar world. And they find in Israel and the UAE a very willing partner. And some people said that this alternative to the Silk Road has worked in the past few weeks. There are now some concerns that UAE has been sending multiple trucks with fresh food and everything to Israel that goes from Dubai into Saudi Arabia and into Jordan and then into Israel.

The other parties have denied this, but to some extent, the Israelis have been very adamant that this is happening. And now we’re seeing that this route, this alternative, is not an imaginary one but that they are basically, fundamentally implementing it and taking the benefits that could come from it. 

What does this all mean? What it really means is that this war is definitely motivated by Zionist ideology and Zionist aims and designs. But that’s not mutually exclusive with some of the arguments I’m presenting. There are colonial economic and material advantages that Israel is seeking as a return on its investment in this war. And, in addition to eliminating any competition or action from the Palestinian people in Gaza, there would be returns. And these returns are very lucrative.

There is no question. The total value of the Levant Basin: The oil prices of 2019 were about 350 billion dollars. And if Israel prevents Lebanon — or makes it wait and they can siphon it and slant the drilling — and if they can prevent the Palestinians from exploiting their own natural resources and if the Israelis can use them and if they would get their hands on a very lucrative bundle here and the amounts that are some people really saying with the rise of the price of gas due to the Ukraine-Russian War that these values have risen more than three to four times and then the oil that you will get.

That’s not only energy sufficiency but creating Israel as a petro-state or a gas state with an empire and an important, lucrative investment that would return a huge amount of rents to the Israelis. And if this was not sufficient then add to it the alternative of the Suez Canal, and that may be about 10-to-20 billion dollars in terms of shipping fees and the control on being a major power that would connect the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.

And if these two are not sufficient, let’s go to the third one, which is the alternative to the Silk Road, undermining the capacity of the Chinese to supply routes all the way through Asia, to Europe, and to Africa. In a way, Israel has positioned itself by emptying Gaza as a major economic driver and hegemonic control over trade routes that would serve the empire.

I’ll stop there. Thank you.

Dr. Piers Robinson:

Thank you very much, Atif. Economic or resource analysis of what’s going on is so particularly essential because so much of the mainstream popular discussion of these conflicts is purely in terms of identity and so on, and the economics is always hidden from view, certainly for a large section of the public. So, I think that’s extremely useful.

Thank you, Atif, for that presentation.

Identifying Structural Deep Events and State Crimes Against Democracy in Real Time

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As a supplement, read Kevin Ryan’s latest article: “Puzzling Out the Pattern of State Crimes

Dr. Piers Robinson:

We’ve had a discussion, we’ve looked closely at legal issues, we’ve looked at the resource economic underbelly of the conflict, and we’re now going to move with Kevin Ryan into thinking a little bit more about some of the other hidden, deep state, deep event aspects of this—the question of deception, the question of instigation or exploitation of events, for various purposes.

Kevin is a whistleblower from the 9/11 event. He is a board member of International Center for 9/11 Justice, editor of the Journal of 9/11 Studies, and author of Another Nineteen, looking at suspects regarding 9/11.

He’s going to be talking to us for about 20 minutes, looking at, in a sense, some wider conceptual theoretical ideas about structural deep events, state crimes against democracy.

I’d like to welcome you and hand it over to you, Kevin.

Kevin Ryan:

I’m very grateful to be here among such distinguished company. And as Dr. Robinson said, I’m a member of the board of the International Center for 9/11 Justice that’s sponsoring the symposium along with UK Column. The International Center is dedicated to, among other things, establishing an accurate account of the crimes of September 11, 2001. We’re also committed to identifying and studying similar events. If anyone listening is not aware of the evidence that 9/11 was a deception, please go to our website, IC911.org, where you can find much information about that.

I’d like to begin the day, though, with a quote from a physicist. Paul Davies is a quantum theorist who said: “It’s a new perspective, not a new piece of information, that leads to intellectual revolutions.” Many of us have found that studying 9/11 and the crimes of 9/11 provides that sort of new perspective. But it’s not comfortable.

One way to describe part of this new view is that the oligarchy that rules us terrorizes us on occasion to facilitate its own objectives. And this leads to the questioning of every new narrative that we receive from the mainstream media and from government.

After 9/11, I began to question every terrorist act that occurred over a period of twenty years. For example, in 2015, I evaluated all of the terrorist acts across the world, including in France and Denmark and Australia and the United States. I found that there was a pattern to these terrorist acts that included the fact that the evidence for the official account was very weak and very convenient, that any other evidence that didn’t support the official account was ignored, [that] the suspects were of course dead immediately, and [that] there was an immediate attempt to associate them with Islam. There had been military or law enforcement exercises that mimicked the events, either coinciding with the events or preceding them, and, of course, there were very quick actions in response, without thorough investigation.

So, what I found is that 9/11 and the other terrorist events during the global war on terror fit this pattern. They’re called “false flag events,” which are acts committed with the intent of hiding the true culprits and blaming others.

Now, false flags are a subset of something called “state crimes against democracy,” which are a subset of what are called “deep events.” But I’ll generally call them “state crimes” in this talk. Or, as with 9/11, I might call them “global state crimes.” 

My question is: Can we detect a false flag, a state crime against democracy, or a deep event as it’s happening? It’s important for peace and security to do so, as well as for our own personal safety and liberty. We also don’t want to be part of the harm that’s being caused by any state crime.

And for these purposes, this is not just an academic exercise. But we do have to define the terms involved in order to detect state crimes. So, I’ll begin with state crimes against democracy, which was defined by Lance deHaven-Smith, a professor from Florida State University who coined the term. He said that they are concerted actions or inactions by government insiders, intended to manipulate democratic processes and undermine popular sovereignty.

Two things jump out to me in this definition. First of all, they can be actions or inactions. So, things that should have happened but did not happen can be state crimes. An example might be the fact that the Roosevelt Administration knew that the Pearl Harbor attack would occur before it did and allowed it to happen. So, inactions—not preventing that attack or preventing the people from being killed—are an example of a state crime against democracy.

And government insiders are involved, according to Professor deHaven-Smith. There’s a fine line between government insiders, government officials, and people who go through a revolving door. We’ll keep that in mind.

Professor deHaven-Smith listed about two dozen of these SCADs, or state crimes against democracy, in his writings and in his talks. For him, all of them were US-based. They included assassinations of public figures, like JFK and RFK and Martin Luther King. They included provocations to drive war, like 9/11. They also included election-related crimes.

One more thing Dr. deHaven-Smith did was, he categorized them into what he called highly confirmed SCADs, mid-level SCADs, or low-level SCADs.

He did categorize them as high-level confirmation of being a SCAD if there were confessions or documents of admission. So, documentation or confessions that stated they were, in fact, state crimes made them highly confirmed.

If they were circumstantial, but also included a cover-up, then he would potentially call them a mid-level confirmed SCAD. That would include, for him, both JFK and the 9/11 crimes.

But I think it’s important to note that we will not likely get confessions in a timely manner for the next state crime or the latest state crime. But my point is that it makes sense to maintain a skeptical view of any new narrative if the current perspective suggests it might be a state crime. A useful, practical perspective, or view, does not require nailing down every fact. It should be continually reevaluated, of course, as new evidence is obtained.   

One thing many of us have heard is that such perspectives are not within the limits of what’s called the spectrum of acceptable opinion. So, we have to be willing to withstand being smeared as a conspiracy theorist if we might consider such perspectives.

The “conspiracy theorist” term is used to deter others from investigating historic events. It implies that criminal conspiracies among the rich and powerful are impossible or absurd. It takes some imagination to buy into that usage.

Professor Peter Dale Scott defined “deep events” and “structural deep events.” He said a deep event is one of hidden or underappreciated relevance to deep politics. Now, deep politics is the business of deep states, and deep states are covert groups that seek to exercise control over governments or nations. Also, deep events are never presented clearly by the media. “Structural” means the event impacts the whole fabric of society. So, a “structural deep event” impacts all of society.   

I’ve noticed that many people can accept the idea of an American deep state—the US deep state. But some people cannot transfer that idea to other countries or to an international or a supranational deep state. Professor Scott was not one of those. He mentioned a number of times a supranational deep state in his writings and in his interviews. He mentioned several organizations that he felt were representative of an international or a supranational deep state, including the Council on Foreign Relations, Cercle Pinay, the Safari Club, and the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI).   

Professor Scott also identified common modalities of structural deep events. These included the instant identification of the designated culprits, the fact that the suspects had hidden intelligence backgrounds and that they were protected by intelligence agencies. This is all very true for the 9/11 crimes.

But one drawback to the deep event definition is that it’s a retrospective vision, meaning some of these modalities are not seen until years later. We can’t see, of course, what’s hidden or falsified, so we may not be able to call something a structural deep event yet at the same time still have enough perspective to see that it’s likely to be a state crime.

In 2020 I was working as the head of quality control for a gene therapy company, and our laboratories were experiencing what’s called “false positive results” for a test technique called RT-qPCR. This is a form of PCR. It’s a nucleotide testing for analytes such as viruses.

And so, it became interesting to me when I read that a Chinese journal of epidemiology had published a peer-reviewed paper saying that in China the testing for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, experienced 50% false positives. That’s quite a bit. It means that every other test that says somebody is infected with SARS-CoV-2 was false. Further confirmatory testing showed that they were not infected.

This led me to look into the test kit being manufactured for the US CDC. I noticed reports in the news that the state laboratories using this kit were experiencing a lot of false positives. So, I looked into the details of the reagents used in the kits—the nucleotide sequences and so forth—and found that they were unable to identify a unique coronavirus. The primers and probes were based on parts of the coronavirus which were highly conserved across different coronaviruses, of which there were already seven common coronaviruses, including the common cold. So, the kit was not testing for a unique coronavirus.

Coupled to this was the fact that there were policy changes in many places that led to the misattribution of death. Anyone who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and happened to die,

whether they died of heart disease or cancer or being in a motorcycle accident, COVID was listed if they tested positive for it. COVID was listed on their death certificate. This obviously inflated the numbers that people used.

There was also a redefinition of terms. The terms “pandemic” and later “vaccine” were redefined for the purposes of supporting this agenda that appeared to be being implemented. There were oppressive mandates like lockdowns and mandatory vaccinations and so forth implemented. And soon it became clear to me and many others that COVID was also a global state crime—not just an individual state crime, but a coordinated global state crime.

In September 2020, I gave a presentation on parallels between COVID crimes and 9/11 crimes, and I listed eleven features and outcomes that were shared among the COVID crimes and the 9/11 crimes.

  • I noted that there was media saturation of fear-based messaging.
  • There was insider trading in both instances.
  • There were exercises that preceded the events that mimicked what was going to happen, similar to the false flag terrorist exercises.
  • There was a failure to investigate the origins of the threat.
  • There was an abuse of science and a widespread censorship of dissent.
  • It was clear that the response would kill far more people than the original threat.
  • There were increased mechanisms of population control.
  • And, of course, there was a huge transfer of wealth and a centralization of power.

Both the 9/11 crimes and the COVID crimes shared these commonalities. And there was a similar formula for the terrorism events during the global war on terror.

So, my question is: Can we use a pattern like this to more quickly identify when a state crime is being committed?

We don’t need confessions before we can identify a state crime for our own purposes. What we also don’t need is to convince 100% of our fellow citizens, or even a majority. We need to be able to take measures in our own best interests—for example, rejecting narratives or sources of misinformation or declining oppressive state measures like experimental injections.

Let’s use the Hamas attack on October 7th as an example of a narrative that can be evaluated as a state crime as well.

I noticed that the Israeli ambassador to the UN called these attacks “Israel’s 9/11.” That raised my attention—I’m sure it did for many people—because that means something quite different to me.

But we can ask: Do these attacks match the pattern?

Was there fear-based messaging? I think that’s fair to say. And even more so, it was in the form of atrocity propaganda. You know, babies having their heads chopped off and people being dismembered and burned alive. All of these stories, it was found out recently, originated with the Netanyahu administration, and many, if not all, appeared to be false.

Were there rapid actions taken that facilitated a preexisting agenda? It’s fair to consider that, I think.

Did the response kill more people? Obviously, the response has killed twenty times more, as Professor Falk stated. This is genocidal in response.

Were there exercises beforehand? There were, in fact, exercises conducted by Hamas in July of 2020 that mimicked what would happen on October 7th. These exercises were monitored by Israeli intelligence. Some of them have said that the exercises reflected the attacks fairly well.

Was there insider trading? Recently, law professors at New York University and at Columbia University published a peer-reviewed article that indicated there was short-selling, a form of insider trading, on Israeli companies related to the October 7th events.

We could go on. Was there censorship? Population control? Transfer of wealth?

Professor Kubursi made several remarks related to transfer of wealth, natural resources, and land. The next two speakers will likely shed more light on the details.

Also note that Al Qaeda was a creation of US defense and intelligence agencies going back to Operation Cyclone in the 1970s. And, similarly, Hamas was at least in part created by Israel. So, there are some similarities there as well.

I would just say at this point our current perspective should include the possibility that the State of Israel was involved somehow in the crimes related to October 7th and that they could be considered state crimes.

In any case, we need to know when state crimes are being committed and we need to know as soon as possible, as they’re occurring, to avoid harming ourselves and others.

A pattern does exist for state crimes, maybe not the exact pattern that I’ve described. But whatever the pattern or the set of characteristics is, people need to understand it in order to move to more quickly and reliably evaluate future crises for deception.

If we want to maintain our lives and liberties, we must examine every new alleged crisis, using criteria based on a pattern reflective of the events we know were state crimes.

So, thank you for your attention. I’ll turn it over back over to Dr. Robinson at this time.

Dr. Piers Robinson:

Thank you very much, Kevin. It’s very interesting. Obviously, this question of structural deep events, the question of deception, and so on, is, in the same way as Atif’s presentation, looking at areas and processes that people don’t understand properly. In that case, the economics. In this case, the question of the deep state, the question of these elements of government which are hidden from view. And, really, this central idea that deception, especially with empires, is a central way in which they conduct themselves, how they exercise power—particularly for liberal empires, or empires that like to see themselves as liberal democracies. You have to mislead the public, ultimately, in order to do the necessary dark deeds of empire. So an absolutely essential research area.

Hegemonic Panic: October 7 as a Deep Event

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Dr. Piers Robinson:

Really picking up on this, we will now turn to Dr. Aaron Good, who is going to, I think, be looking at some of the questions and some of the evidence in more detail about deception, about instigation, exploitation, etc., in relation to October 7. Aaron is agreed to do this. As I said, he runs the American Exception podcast. He is also author of a fantastic book, which is based on his PhD, which I’m eagerly reading at the moment, I’m pleased to say. And Aaron’s going to talk to us for about 30 minutes on the issue of deep state and empire in relation to both October 7 and what’s going on at the moment, following that in the Middle East.

Aaron.

Dr. Aaron Good:

Thank you very much, Piers. I have called this “Hegemonic Panic.” And I have a lot here. Some of it is overlapping with Kevin, so I’ll try to skip through some of that, which is actually helpful, because I have more here than I can get through easily, but a lot of it is just data points.

We talk about deep events. These do come from the clandestine state. They’re events that are mysterious, and they seem to come from the covert action apparatus of the government and that we know we’ll never get to the bottom of them. We can ascertain that we are immersed in this because we see a pattern again, where something strange happens, it is politically impactful, it overlaps with at least practices and objectives and aims of the national security state—of imperialism, generally speaking. So, as Kevin was suggesting, we at least reason to suspect that something is a covert operation. If it’s aimed at the US population, it’s a state crime against democracy, and we can identify these.

Now this was deHaven-Smith’s and Scott’s definition of state crimes against democracy, which Kevin just discussed [see slide].    

My own academic work was in part based on trying to form a synthesis between Peter Dale Scott and Lance deHaven-Smith’s work, because I had befriended Lance and got to collaborate with him at a number of conferences and helped him with manuscripts and everything.

And his loss is really devastating for me personally. It was a great thing to be able to talk about these issues and try to work on them in a scholarly way. That was really what I dedicated my PhD to.

In terms of synthesizing these two perspectives, Peter Dale Scott conceded that the SCAD construct, or the idea of state crimes against democracy, was good but that it should be amended to say that it involves other elements that are subvert, that are submerged and not visible. So, it could be like a deep state crime against democracy, essentially. Lance himself said that what he had done with SCAD theory was still lacking a theory of the state or a role in any theorization on the role of economic elites, so corporate power. And so, I set about trying to address these things with my own dissertation, which eventually got published as American Exception: Empire and the Deep State, published by Skyhorse.

Now, there’s another academic here named Willem Bart de Lint. I have not been able to contact him, but it would be good to talk to him. He wrote this book Blurring Intelligence Crime: A Critical Forensics. And he talks about an “apex crime” [as] “a watershed event involving government in the support of a contested political and social order and its primary opponent as the obvious offender, which is then subject to a confirmation bias.”

We have examples of that in US history, where an apex crime takes place: the assassination of JFK. And who did it? The communists, okay? And then the more we learn about Oswald, it seems that he was pretending to be a communist on behalf of elements connected to the US government when he defected to the Soviet Union and when he was pretending to be a communist in New Orleans.

Later, notably, when a presidential candidate was going to reinvestigate the JFK assassination—that’s Robert Kennedy—he was killed. And the patsy, in this case, was Sirhan Sirhan, a Palestinian who could not have shot Robert Kennedy because Robert Kennedy was shot from point-blank range from behind, from right to left, at an upward angle. Sirhan was standing in front of him. The use of the Palestinian patsy is very significant. It’s no coincidence.

I’m just going to run through these [points]. I don’t have deep knowledge about them, but I noticed them myself, because I always think in terms of these patterns now when I see an event like this.

Kevin mentioned some of these—and I’m not going to go into detail about them, but there’s a lot of evidence that:

  • Israel knew about this plan quite a while ago and that such an attack would be hard to keep totally secret. So, people suspect they had foreknowledge.
  • People have documented suspicious insider trading—evidence that points to insider trading, which indicates foreknowledge as well.
  • The friendly fire aspect. How much of the death count of the Israeli civilians actually came from the Israeli military response, which is a very open question.
  • A related question is, was this not just friendly fire, but was it actual policy? Was it the Hannibal directive, wherein the Israeli military does not want Hamas—or Palestinian groups at all—to be able to have Israeli hostages, especially Israeli military hostages. They will kill them [the hostages] when they are fleeing rather than allow them to have [Israeli] hostages. So, was that the calculation made on the night of October 7—that they would rather them not have the hostages, and a high death count, they could just blame it on Hamas, and it will allow them to pursue a preexisting agenda.
  • A lot of false reports in the media of atrocities: the decapitated babies, etc., etc. A lot of propaganda and disinformation and it’s all slanted, typically in one direction.
  • The treatment of the hostages does not suggest that Hamas would have slaughtered all of these people and sexually tortured and mutilated people. The reports from the hostages are that they were treated very well. That doesn’t seem to make sense. Nor does it make sense that [Hamas] would commit those atrocities, given that hostage-taking has certain political objectives that we can discern and that would be undermined by wanton atrocities.
  • There’s the tricky problem of the fact that Hamas seems to be generally a creation of Israel—that they were backed and boosted by Israel. It’s not that the members of Hamas don’t have genuine, legitimate, deep-seated grievances towards Israel, but Israel seems to have created this group. There’s documentation of this. It’s been written about by mainstream people, such as Mehdi Hasan, who is as corporate and mainstream as it gets. But he has written that Hamas is useful as a foil for Israel, it’s a way to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state, it creates an unsympathetic actor, and it undermined the PLO. That was the thinking at the time.        
  • Additionally, we know that they wanted to expel the Palestinians beforehand. An Israeli official leaked a think tank paper that was commissioned by Israeli intelligence. It looked at different options to handle the Palestinian problem. But the one that they end up saying is good is Option C: evacuation of the civilian population from Gaza to Sinai.
  • There’s the longstanding opposition to Palestinian statehood. The fact that many people like Netanyahu are on the record saying, “Support Hamas, because that will keep a Palestinian state from forming” or “It’s been good that we have supported Hamas, it’s been good that we have done these things to keep a Palestinian state from being formed.” They are hellbent on this. They believe in the Greater Israel, which cannot but be created only with massive war crimes tantamount to genocide, which we are seeing now. 

Now, this issue of war and the deception that creates it, this is a recurring theme in imperialism, especially Western imperialism. It just happens again and again. There’s all these cliches about “the fog of war” and “the first casualty [of war] is truth” and all of this. Typically, these wars are fought because one side wants to fight a war, and typically they need a pretext as well.

So, I just want to run through some of these pretexts of modern Western imperialism. I’m going to focus on the US side—but others as well.

  • The Thornton Affair [1845]. This is how we were able to steal California from Mexico. This is the pretext used to launch the Mexican-American War—a very dubious war. Even Abraham Lincoln questioned it at the time, when he was a Whig congressman.
  • The assassination of Queen Min [1895]. This takes place in Korea. This was when the Japanese had adopted Western imperialist tactics. Basically, they’d become as vicious as us. They studied our industry and they studied our imperialism and they had what was something of an intelligence outfit: This Black Ocean group pretend to be Koreans and they kill the Queen of Korea. This is a colonial war. They’re trying to set up a colonial empire, just like the West.
  • The USS Maine, of course, gets blown up [1898]. This is infamous. It helps to fuel America’s desire to fight the Spanish-American War and get its first overseas colonies.
  • The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand sparks World War I [1914]. The Serbian group, Black Hand: People have suggested or found evidence that points to them being related to the British Empire. Was this some sort of pretext or event or a catalyst that was staged by the British? It’s quite possible, to me. I wouldn’t put anything past the British.
  • The Mukden incident in Manchuria [1931] is used by the Japanese imperialists—the fascists, basically, running Japan—to have an excuse to intervene more heavily in Manchuria.
  • The Reichstag Fire [1933] is infamous, of course. The Nazis used this to seize absolute control in Germany. It’s worth noting that at Nuremberg it was established that the Nazis had done this. And then, after the fact, because some of the people that were probably responsible for this were in the government, it was embarrassing. And so there was this new history contrived, wherein the communist patsy, Marinus van der Lubbe, had really set the fire himself. But Peter Dale Scott has a good dossier on this that he’s compiled over the years. It’s just not the case. Now notice Jacobin. This is a good example of how feckless the left is in the United States—the establishment left, the left that has any institutional support. The headline, “How the Nazis Exploited the Reichstag Fire to Launch a Reign of Terror.” Well, at Nuremberg, they found that the Nazis set the Reichstag Fire, but this is something that the left defers to authority. We have the most docile left in the United States. Whatever the state tells them is the truth: “OK, yes, sir.” 
  • The Gleiwitz incident in Germany [1939]. This is Germany with the Nazis, who had their own particular ethos, right? But even they need to have a false flag to be able to invade Poland, because you need a pretext. No matter how vicious you are, it seems you need at least an excuse to go to war. So, they had people dress up as people attacking the Germans, so the Germans could go into Poland. We know this pretty well.
  • Pearl Harbor [1941]. Of course, there’s no need to go into that. Foreknowledge: how much was there? That is the event that leads to US entry into the war, US victory in the war, dropping the bombs on Japan, and then the US becomes the global hegemon of the so-called free world.
  • The Gulf of Tonkin incident [1964]. A very dubious event, of course.
  • [Suharto’s US-backed coup in Indonesia, 1965]. A major, major massacre overseas, which I think is worth mentioning—because it involves a mass slaughter—is the massacre in 1965, which followed this bungled coup attempt. The more you look at the coup attempt—especially if you look at the work of Peter Dale Scott or Greg Poulgrain . . . Peter’s work in 1985, this paper, this essay in Pacific Affairs journal, which is Canadian. He couldn’t get it published in the American one; it was too sensitive. He found that the CIA and one of its backers with this Lockheed bribery scandal began shifting payments months before this strange coup that failed. Months before this happened, the CIA had shifted its funding—these bribes—[given] to a backer of Sukarno to [instead] a backer of Suharto, who would be used to basically depose Sukarno and afterwards murder half a million, one million, three million. We don’t even know how many people were tortured to death in Indonesia. I recommend watching Joshua Oppenheimer’s “The Act of Killing,” if you haven’t seen that documentary on this subject. But notice, again, Jacobin—the establishment lefty scholar that says here—Michael Vann is interviewed, and he says, “Some of the American-focused scholarship in a way denies Indonesian agency and underplays the Indonesian role in these events.” So, this is a trope among what passes for the left in the United States. With these covert actions and deception operations, they don’t want to accept that these things happen. And one of the excuses they use with a covert operation is, if you say that was a covert operation, then you’re taking away the agency of the Indonesian people. Somehow, it’s the nice thing to do—to say it wasn’t the CIA. I don’t understand how this logic takes root in the academy, but I think it has to do with the hegemony of the empire and how covert action is so delegitimizing. That’s why they make it covert. They want to say they’re not doing it because it’s usually something very sinister. So, this is something we’ve got to deal with. The academics are not going to help us, because they’re part of the establishment.
  • The Yom Kippur War in 1973 is a strange war when you stop and think about it because the two sides, the Saudis and the Israelis, were basically on the US side by that point more firmly. You had these gas shortages at the time—because of this war. And the price of oil explodes. This is a pretext for a massive increase of oil that people like Henry Kissinger had already been trying to orchestrate, according to no less an authority than the Saudi Minister of Oil at the time. He said the price increases were desired by Henry Kissinger. It does say that it shores up the dollar after [the] Vietnam [War] had brought down Bretton Woods.

Now, another aspect that we should look at in this chronology, which takes us up to the present day and which has made me rethink . . . all of these things have made me rethink the role of Israel in US foreign policy. George H. W. Bush in 1992 ran afoul of the Israel lobby. There’s an article on it in The Times of Israel. He lost 24% of his Jewish backing after confronting Israel over settlements—”a lesson that US leaders since have taken to heart.”

One of the most controversial moments is when he delayed Israel loan guarantees until it halted its settlement building in the West Bank and Gaza and entered into a peace conference [with the Palestinians], which would later become known as the Madrid Peace Conference.

This is George H. W. Bush saying: The US will cut off aid to you if you do not return to these negotiations for a Palestinian state. He was looking to solve the Palestinian problem and the Israel-Palestine crisis at the end of the Cold War, because he saw it as antithetical to US long-term interests in the region, just like Eisenhower did when he intervened in the Suez Canal crisis. There’s always been a balance that the US tried to strike for geopolitical reasons. And H. W. Bush is no hero or great humanitarian or anything, believe me. I’m totally aware of how sinister he is. And so this makes this all the more remarkable that this person, this nexus of the American deep state, the Yankee oil people, and then the Western cowboy military-industrial complex faction, he seemed to unite both of those. But he still had problems with this Israel contingency, and it may have contributed to—it may have been decisive in—having him lose his reelection. So, he made clear the cost. His case makes clear what happens to you, that if you fight all these pro-Israel groups, you could go down. He had a 70% approval rating, and then he ends up losing. It’s really remarkable.

Now, at the same time, we have this other big issue, which is the emergence of a move for multipolarity. This article is written in 2009.

[Technical difficulties. Dr. Good returns momentarily.]

Okay, I’m not sure what happened there, but what I want to talk about here is multipolarity and the way that this became a geopolitical issue, beginning in the early years after the Cold War.

This woman [Susan Turner] is writing about it here [in Asian Perspective, Vol. 33, No. 1, 2002, pp. 159-184] and you can see:

“Since the late 1990s, the concept of multipolarity has gained prominence around the globe. Russia and China [. . .] have included it or alluded to it in nearly all of their joint declarations, statements, and treaties dating from the mid-1990s to the present.”

So, what is the US response to this?

Well, I think that you can look at what the US is trying to do. They are using jihadis throughout the ’90s. So, after the Cold War ends, those networks that were used to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan are repurposed and used all over the place in the 1990s. This is called McJihad. A political scientist [Benjamin R. Barber] tried to write about this in the ’90s. He wrote the book Jihad vs. McWorld, and it said: Oh, jihadis are reacting to Coca-Cola and McDonald’s, and they want to hold on to their old ways. What’s going to happen here?

Another author, whose name I don’t recall, wrote about this shortly afterwards and said: It seems the US is actually fueling this. This is actually McJihad. This is the West that creates its own villains and then it can either use them as shock troops somewhere or use them as an excuse to intervene somewhere.

So, this is important when you think of 9/11.

Additionally, in Israel at this time you have the “Clean Break” document: “A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm,” prepared by a think tank called The Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies. It’s commissioned by a “Study Group on a New Israeli Strategy Toward 2000 . . . led by Richard Perle for Benjamin Netanyahu, then Prime Minister of Israel.” It included other Bush administration officials from the future, Douglas Feith and David Wurmser. This document said: “. . . removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq” is “an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right.”

So, we see that the people that were Bush administration officials for the Iraq War were making these arguments on behalf of Israel at the time—I mean, in the years leading up to this. At the same time, [you have] the more establishment forces in the United States—Zbigniew Brzezinski represents them. There’s a study commissioned by the Council on Foreign Relations, which is the Wall Street think tank that planned the US Empire in the first place. They commissioned him to write this book on US geopolitics after the Cold War. He calls it The Grand Chessboard, and he basically calls for controlling Eurasia and making sure that they prevent the rise of a counterhegemonic bloc, especially that would include Iran, China, and Russia. So, he’s talking about how we don’t want to have this.

This is a direct response to China and Russia saying: How about multipolarity? The US response is: How about we make sure multipolarity doesn’t happen. And that’s from Brzezinski, who is, generally speaking, if anything, a couple degrees to the left of the neocons. These are people dedicated to American domination über alles.   

The American neocon response to this situation is The Project for a New American Century, and they’re calling for full spectrum dominance over the world forever. They’re also saying that it’s going to be hard to get the US to commit to what needs to be done without a new Pearl Harbor. This study [“Rebuilding America’s Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century”] comes out in 2000.

And then a new Pearl Harbor happens with 9/11 and the anthrax letters. In terms of being able to adjudicate these crimes, there’s cause for pessimism, as we probably all know. Because even if they get caught red-handed more or less, even if some part of the state does its job and they are allowed to investigate things properly and they find out it points back to the state, they’ll just contrive some other cover story.

The cover story for the anthrax letters after it was found that the anthrax was from a US laboratory was that, oh, it was just some random guy who just did this for some reason—pretended to be a Muslim because he had some weird crush on a cheerleader, or something like that. It was a very strange case. That was after they had another guy they tried to pin it on who fought that charge off. Very strange.  

The point is: The state will not investigate itself. If it’s an apex crime, if apex controls the investigation, we won’t get to the bottom of it. 

— Iraqi WMD [2002 onward]. We don’t need to say any more about that, probably.

— In 2007, this is, I think, important, and people have not remarked on this as much, the War on Terror stalls. Brzezinski goes in front of Congress and says [paraphrasing]: We need to be careful. There’s going to be some sort of terror attack, and it’ll be blamed on Iran, and it’ll be used to start a war that’ll be a disaster for the US and the whole [Middle East] region. 

— You also had John Kiriakou’s torture fiasco, his terrible journey, his whistleblowing on the issue of CIA torture, which may have been related to this, as a way to publicly chasten the Bush Administration and hold back the neocons.

So now, fast forward a couple of years, or right before—really months before—the Arab Spring. You have Zbigniew Brzezinski. He had been putting the brakes on the whole War on Terror, 9/11 Wars agenda. Then he speaks at, I think it’s a Chicago CFR meeting or dinner or something, and he says [paraphrasing], “There’s going to be a global awakening. The whole world is waking up to injustice. They’re all connected at the same time.”

I remember this at the time because [. . . around the same time] I saw Alex Jones [. . . and] he’s saying, “They’re going to try to wake you up. They’re cooking something up.” [. . . It] didn’t occur to me until later, but this was right before the Arab Spring. I think Brzezinski may have been kicking off the revival of this whole anti-counter-hegemonic campaign. [. . . It was] this whole way of trying to continue this agenda to make sure the US had control over Eurasia, because you get these Arab Spring wars.

And then it eventually comes out that the US had helped nurture some of these groups. It’s all very strange when you look at it in retrospect. It seems like it was really just the continuation of that whole agenda. The Arab Spring wars stall, as well, in part because of Russia, and interestingly, the naval base that would have given them access to the Mediterranean into Syria is in Ukraine, and you have the destabilization of Ukraine from a Russian perspective.

You have Victoria Nuland passing out poisonous cookies to kill protesters. Not really, she had them killed with snipers. But she did pass out cookies there, which was not quite a respectable thing for a diplomat to do to an opposition group like this, but that’s how it goes. The US hand in this was really obvious. It was a coup that put in a threat to Russia right on its doorstep.

You have Russiagate in the United States, which was a very strange event and made sure the US had a bellicose posture towards Russia at the time. It was a total distraction from the failure that led to Trump being elected. Instead, it was just a way to blame Russia. We don’t know where those emails came from, where the leaks came from. Some people think it was Seth Rich. That’s a strange murder case. The internet angle was also exaggerated. It was very strange. Those “Buff Bernie” memes were not really history-changing, in my opinion. So that was a hoax.   

We have COVID, which I’m not going to say much about, except that it came from US bioweapons research, apparently, and it had a major impact, and it seems to have been used either opportunistically or by design as a structural deep event.

Ukraine War is, of course, a huge disaster, along with the Nord Stream pipeline crimes, but you’re not really going to get to the bottom of them.

Al-Aqsa Flood, as we’ve talked about, and this Gaza genocide—these seem to be related also to all of those issues that Atif was talking about earlier, that are economic and geopolitical motives, but also the fact that US hegemony is really crumbling. And I think that Israel feels like its window of opportunity for a final solution with Palestine is running out, perhaps. So, they’re going farther than people would’ve thought they would’ve gone—farther than they’ve ever gone before—in terms of just slaughtering the people in Gaza.

I want to talk about SCAD versus deep events and ways academics can think about these and how useful they are. SCAD is useful as an academic or forensic heuristic. It’s a way to put these things into a certain category so you know what you’re looking at and you can talk about it. Deep events, or the way that Peter Dale Scott approaches these, might be more useful for making detached observations about things after the fact and gaining historical insights and then thinking about how you can apply these. So, these are very similar academic ideas.

Now, in terms of what we should do, in terms of thinking about justice, given the criminality that we see in the state when we study these things, Lance had a different idea than Peter. Lance basically thought: Hey, I’m a public administration person. You solve crimes and you “Hang the bastards.” Peter thought there could be a cultural revolution of the mind eventually and a Truth and Reconciliation process of some kind, eventually. But he thought that people really had to be prepared—or he thinks this now, increasingly, that people need to be prepared for this revolution before it can happen. He has some hope that civil society groups, along the lines of the Civil Rights movement, could be useful in this regard.

The synthesis of these two lines of thinking—well, I’ve tried to do that a little bit. The proximate root of the problem is that there’s no lawful sovereign over the domestic state and over the international system. Therefore, whenever we have these problems, these crimes we identify, we are reduced to hysterically shouting into the void and not having any way to have the rule of law apply, domestically or internationally.

But, as with every empire, these people are hanging themselves. I think nemesis really comes from outside. The non-West right now embodies humanity’s desire to be free from exploitation and domination. They’re really doing the heavy lifting to fight this despotism that we’re seeing. I think its ultimate embodiment is in Gaza right now. It seems to be the perfect encapsulation, in a horrific way, of so much that we have done for hundreds of years in the West. But we are not able to take power, so we can just post protest emojis and have Zoom conferences and try to raise awareness and raise consciousness.     

The good news is I do think this empire that’s been around for hundreds of years is now on its way out. And that is exciting, although it’s a little frightening because we don’t know what they have up their sleeves to try to hold on to power.

I have other slides here, but I don’t want to go any further than this.

So, I think I’ll leave it at that and say that really the problem is the despotism that’s at the top of the state and the fact that this continues over the international realm. There is no lawful sovereign, domestically and internationally. There’s no way to adjudicate disputes according to the rule of international law in any sort of fair way because of the US, by and large.

Dr. Piers Robinson:

Thank you, Aaron, for a fascinating discussion, rich and detailed.

Containing Escalation: How the Resistance axis is sabotaging US intent to escalate the conflict beyond Palestine

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Dr. Piers Robinson:

We’re going to move now to our final talk for 20 minutes before we go to the panel discussion. And we have, last but by no means least, Vanessa Beeley, who’s going to talk about the current geopolitical situation. And I think a little bit, the sort of perspective of groups within the region, countries within the region as they resist empire and where she sees it as going at the moment.

Over to you, Vanessa.

Vanessa Beeley:

Thank you so much, Piers. I feel extremely privileged to be in such a good company. I’m going to cross over definitely with Aaron on the “Clean Break,” so I’ll skip over that a little bit, and I’ll probably complement what Atif and Richard were saying.

So, basically, what I’m going to look at is Washington and London’s long war against the Middle East or, rather, West Asia, the rise of BRICS, global South independence, the emergence of a neo-Pan-Arabism, and, of course, the multipolar world that has been mentioned by many people.    

Now, I’m going to start off with a direct quote from Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., which he gave during an interview—I think in the last month or so. And I think, for me, it encapsulates exactly what Israel represents to the US. It’s quite rare for any American politician to be quite so overt in their opinion.

I’ll start the quote:

“Israel is critical, and the reason it’s critical is because it is a bulwark for us in the Middle East. It is almost like having an aircraft carrier in the Middle East. It’s our oldest ally. It’s been our ally for 75 years. It’s been an incredible ally for us in terms of the technology exchange, and building the Iron Dome, which we have paid a lot for, has taught us enormously about how to defend ourselves against missile attacks. [Of] that military expenditure, 75% goes to US companies under the agreement, under the MOU. If you look at what’s happening in the Middle East now, the closest allies to Iran are Russia and China. Iran also controls all of Venezuela’s oil. Hezbollah is in Venezuela. They’ve propped up the Maduro regime, and so they control that oil supply.

“BRICS: Saudi Arabia is now joining BRICS, so those countries will control 90% of the oil in our world. If Israel disappears, [there will be a] vacuum in the Middle East. Israel is our ambassador, our beachhead, in the Middle East. It gives us ears and it gives us eyes in the Middle East. It gives us intelligence, the capacity to influence affairs in the Middle East. If Israel disappeared, Russia and China would be controlling the Middle East and would control 90% of the world’s oil supply, and that would be cataclysmic for US national security.”

Pretty much says it all right there. And so therefore that really shapes what I’m going to continue saying in the presentation. Basically, it’s about the reshaping of the Middle East, which has been an ongoing colonial project for more than a century, including the French-British Sykes-Picot partitioning of the territory—the British creation of the Zionist colonialist settler state after the Balfour Treaty in 1917, which facilitated the European settler land grab from Palestinians until the UN partitioning of Palestine in 1947 in favor of the Zionists. And then, of course, the 1948 Nakba—the ethnic cleansing of more than 750,000 Palestinians from their land with no right to return.

In 1996, as Aaron mentioned, there was the “Clean Break” doctrine—a new strategy for securing the realm. Now, interesting elements of that doctrine included working closely with Turkey and Jordan to contain, destabilize, and roll back some of its most dangerous threats, which included Syria.

Israel should seize the strategic initiative along the northern border by engaging Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon, according, of course, to Israel. Direct attack would be enabled on Syrian territory and against Syrian targets in Lebanon.

A move to contain Syria and to curtail its alleged weapons of mass destruction program. Plans included the removal of Saddam Hussein, as Aaron mentioned, to weaken Syria’s position in the region, and to strengthen Jordan as Israel’s ally.

As special consultant to US Presidents Nixon, Ford, and Reagan, Pat Buchanan, put it: “In the documents, in the strategy, Israel’s enemy remains Syria, but the road to Damascus runs through Baghdad.”

Then we have the map of the new Middle East. This map was prepared by Lieutenant-Colonel Ralph Peters and published in the Armed Forces Journal in June 2006, and it was made widely available to the public.

The term “New Middle East” was introduced to the world in June 2006 in Tel Aviv by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who was credited by the Western media for coining the term in replacement of the older and more imposing term, the “Greater Middle East.”

Renowned author and historian Mahdi Nazemroaya said, “This announcement was a confirmation of an Anglo-American-Israeli “military roadmap” in the Middle East. This project, which has been in the planning stages for several years, consists in creating an arc of instability, chaos, and violence extending from Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria to Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Iran, and the borders of NATO-garrisoned Afghanistan.”

An article in June 2023 in Jerusalem Post is headlined “Israel is well-positioned in the new Middle East.” Israel announced a massive success in defense exports—a record 12.5 billion with Abraham Accord countries accounting for nearly a quarter of those deals. Those countries at the time being include Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, which is effectively a normalization of relations with Israel.

There’s also an important reference, which I think Atif mentioned, to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor—the IMEC—which is designed to compete with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. And we can see the map, which, as I said, links Mumbai through Dubai, Riyadh, Al-Haditha, Haifa, and into Europe through Piraeus in Athens, in Greece.

And then of course we have the infamous Oded Yinon Plan for Greater Israel, the Israel of Theodore Hertz in 1904 and of Rabbi Fischmann in 1947.

To a large degree we’ve entered a new stage in the 75-to-100-year Zionist plan for Palestine: appropriation of the entire territory and final ethnic cleansing of what appears to be all Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza, resettlement in the Sinai in Egypt and elsewhere, as we heard also—I think from Atif.

In January 2023, Netanyahu said, “These are the basic lines of the national government headed by me, the Jewish people having exclusive and unquestionable right to all areas of the land of Israel. The government will promote and develop settlements in all parts of the land of Israel—in the Galilee, in the Negev, in the Jolan [Golan Heights], Judea, and Samaria.”

The Greater Israel Project is an integral part of US foreign policy, the New Middle East, to expand US unipolar supremacy through the fracturing and balkanization of the Middle East. It is supported by NATO and largely by Saudi Arabia.

In March 2023, Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, caused regional uproar when he presented the map of Greater Israel at a conference in Paris, during which he also claimed, “There is no such thing as Palestinian people.” The map showed Jordan and the West Bank within Israel’s borders. The timing of the October 7th events in relation to the imminent normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is also important to note.

From Netanyahu’s perspective, this rapprochement was a means to increasing Israel’s foothold in the Middle East and confronting Iran. It would also have been a mortal wound for Palestinian justice and resistance movements.

Under Trump in 2017, Washington declared support of the Zionist illegal settlements, recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and Israeli sovereignty over the Syrian Jolan territories unlawfully annexed in 1967. Under Biden, there has been some shift in the narrative—that Washington endorses the Israeli annexation of the entire Jordan River Valley and the illegal settlements gradually consuming the West Bank.

The Oded Yinon Plan operates on two essential premises. To survive, Israel must, first of all, become an imperial regional power, and, two, must effect the division of the whole area into small states by the dissolution of all existing Arab states. The Zionist strategy is that sectarian states would become incorporated into Israel’s sphere of influence and would provide Israel with regional and moral legitimation.

Very recently, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made it very clear that Israel has no choice but to pursue victory in order to survive. He said, “The feeling that we will soon stop is incorrect. Without a clear victory, we will not be able to live in the Middle East.” So this has become effectively an existential battle for survival between the Palestinian people and Israel and in the larger picture in the region.

Netanyahu, of course, needs victory in order to ensure his personal political survival and to avoid prosecution for corruption.

Bearing all this in mind, we can better understand the reaction of the region to the events that began on October the 7th. It is fully understood by the countries of the resistance axis, which include Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen, that the US and Israel are seeking escalation in order to achieve their goal of destabilization and balkanization of the enemy states—to protect, of course, as Kennedy describes, the military garrison, which is Israel in the Middle East.

So, I’m going to look now at the escalation and provocation by US and Israel since December 2023. Of course, it’s been ongoing since October the 7th, particularly in the northern occupied territories on the border with Lebanon, but also in multiple aggressions against Syria by Israel.

On December the 25th, the house of the Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria, Brigadier-General Razi Mousavi, was targeted by Israel in the residential area of Sayeda Zeinab south of Damascus. It’s also a busy pilgrimage area for Shia Muslims and at that time, on Christmas Day, was packed with civilians. One of the longest-serving IRGC officers and a close friend of General Qasem Soleimani, assassinated in January 2020 under the Trump Administration, Mousavi was responsible for supporting the resistance front in Syria and the training of Palestinian resistance factions inside Syria.

Israel regularly targets Syrian Arab Army positions. We are actually expecting an attack tonight, so if you hear anything incoming, there’s nothing I can do about it if they do come in relatively close to me. And they have attacked artillery and air defense positions in Syria and targeted the civilian airports of Aleppo and Damascus multiple times in 2023 under the pretext of eliminating Iranian forces or influence inside Syria. It is a clear attempt to reduce Syrian defense and even offense capability in the event of escalation—rarely reported in Western media.

On the 2nd of January, targeting Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, Israel assassinated Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri, who was also instrumental in the creation of the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas. This was the first strike in Dahiyeh, in southern Beirut, since the 2006 War between Israel and Hezbollah.    

Now, before Christmas, the Zionist regime officials had been increasing the threats against Lebanon and Hezbollah. Netanyahu had threatened publicly to turn Beirut into Khan Younis, which is in the south of Gaza, if Hezbollah refused to withdraw north of the Litani River. Israel invoked UN Resolution 1701, which was introduced after the 2006 War to guarantee no weapons or militants south of the Litani River in the hope of bringing the US into conflict, which has failed. Hezbollah has always refused to withdraw from the south, and their long-range and short-range weapons are not clustered only in the south but throughout Lebanon. So, this is largely an exercise in escalating the conflict with Hezbollah.

After the strike in the capital city of Beirut, Secretary-General of Hezbollah Syed Hassan Nasrallah has vowed to retaliate to the point where sufficient deterrence is reinstated against further Israel attacks on Beirut.

Yesterday sixty-two missiles were fired at Meron air base in the northern occupied territory. Meron base is responsible for all air operations towards Syria, Lebanon, and the northern part of the eastern Mediterranean. It also constitutes the major center for electronic jamming operations in these zones and it’s believed to be the base that would’ve directed the strikes on al-Arouri in Beirut. This is considered to be only phase one of the retaliation by Hezbollah.

Lebanon itself has filed a complaint with the UN Security Council over the killing of al-Arouri, calling it the most dangerous phase of Israeli attacks on the country.

A local journalist writing for the Cradle Media, Hassan Illaik: “Tel Aviv’s assessment of a war with Lebanon is based on its reading that Hezbollah wishes to prevent a major confrontation at any cost. Not only is this calculus wrong, but it has also muddled Israeli minds to the point where this may itself lead to the outbreak of a destructive war between the two sides.”

Illaik also points out that we’ve had three stages so far of Zionist aggression against Gaza, but I would also say against West Bank.

Stage one is the obliteration of northern Gaza, which Atif has referred to, and the slower destruction of the West Bank.

Stage two is the occupation of strategic areas in southern Gaza, which is supposedly in the safe zone, where more than one million displaced Palestinians have been forced to gather in appalling conditions and still under Zionist bombardment.

The IOF [Israeli Occupation Forces] withdrawal from Gaza does not signal the end of the war on Gaza. Many regional analysts believe that reducing the pace of the ground war on Gaza is a prelude to an Israeli war on Lebanon. And we’re certainly seeing an escalation on the northern occupied Palestine front, where an estimated 230,000 Zionist settlers have been forced to flee the settlements on the border with Lebanon.

There’s a belief that Israel is implementing a US decision to push the war into a third phase before the end of January 2024.

This requires the war to be lowered in intensity to distract from the mass slaughter and brutal ethnic cleansing of civilians in Gaza and of course coincides with the case that’s being brought into the ICJ by South Africa.  

On the 3rd of January a terrorist attack was carried out in Tehran, in Iran, targeting civilians at the burial place of Qasem Soleimani on the fourth anniversary of his assassination.

More than 173 were injured and 84 killed in the attack. ISIS has officially taken responsibility, but as it’s well documented that the terrorist group is a proxy both of the US and an asset for Israel in the region to a large degree, it does raise the question as to whose hands were actually behind the attack.

Finally, on the 4th of January, the US targeted the deputy head of operations of the Popular Mobilisation Forces [also known as Popular Mobilisation Units], the PMU, in Baghdad. Mushtaq Taleb al-Saeedi was killed in the strike on PMU headquarters in eastern Baghdad. One other was killed in the attack and six injured in the drone strike.

The US claimed it was in retaliation for the Islamic resistance of Iraq’s attack on US military bases in Iraq and Syria. The bases in Syria, of course, are illegal under international law.

There have been 118 attacks by the Islamic resistance since October the 7th. So, in ten days, the US-Israeli alliance has struck targets in Damascus, Beirut, Baghdad, and Iran.

I’m just going to bring back the map of Syria. It’s a relatively old map—probably about a month old. But I just wanted to point out that Syria’s position in the resistance axis is particularly fragile. With the US triggering attacks by ISIS from the Al-Tanf base, which is in the southeastern section of Syria, these attacks have intensified since October the 7th, particularly against Syrian Arab Army positions in the central desert area of Syria. The northwestern area of Idlib is effectively under the control of armed groups dominated by Al Qaeda, who have also intensified their attacks on civilian areas of northern Hama, but also against Syrian Arab Army positions in northern Latakia and western Aleppo. All of these attacks, again, have increased since October the 7th.   

What Syria has done is to open up its territory to Palestinian resistance factions and to the Islamic resistance to carry out attacks against US or Israeli targets—Israeli targets predominantly, of course, in the occupied Jolan territories.

And it’s worth noting that Russia is increasing its observation posts on the border with the occupied Jolan territories.

It’s also worth noting that the emergency Arab League summit that was called very early on into the Israeli aggression against Gaza—the proposal that was put forward by Syria, Yemen, Palestine, Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, and Qatar was vetoed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. The primary elements of that proposal were:

(1) preventing the use of American and other military bases in Arab countries to supply Israel with weapons and ammunition,

(2) freezing Arab diplomatic economic security and military relations with Israel,

(3) threatening to use oil and Arab economic capabilities to pressure to stop the aggression for preventing Israeli civil aviation from flying in Arab airspace.

So, that very strong proposal was effectively vetoed and watered down by the countries that have [normalized] or are on the verge of normalization with Israel.

Finally, I want to come to Yemen, where there is also an area of increased tension, bringing the US alliance closer to conflict with Iran and closer to confrontation with Yemeni forces, or Ansarullah, a coalition resistance movement and the de facto government of Yemen, often described in Western media rather euphemistically as the Houthis.

What I describe as “the coalition of the unwilling” put out a joint statement. The coalition now consists of the US, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and, of course, the UK.

In the wording of part of their statement, they made it very clear what their priority actually is here. It’s [concern over] the loss of 15% of global seaborne trade, which passes through the Red Sea, including 8% of global grain trade, 12% of seaborne-traded oil, and 8% of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade. International shipping companies continue to reroute their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant costs and weeks of delayed delivery of goods, and ultimately jeopardizing the movement of critical food, fuel, and humanitarian assistance throughout the world. 15% of world trade passes through the Suez Canal.

The Africa route around the Cape of Good Hope is 60% more expensive, according to some analysts, and two weeks longer or three weeks, as Atif mentioned. The inevitable knock-on effect will be an increase in energy prices, already hiked as a result of the NATO proxy war in Ukraine. And there’s also predicted to be a shortage in energy and grain supply.

The northern sea route, of course, is controlled by Russia, which currently is effectively at war with NATO and the EU in Ukraine.

As with Ukraine, the impact will be greatest on the EU. As a result, EU Commission Foreign Minister Josep Borrell has been trying to negotiate a settlement with Hezbollah to prevent escalation with Israel, to no avail, as Hezbollah is not prepared to withdraw north of the Litani River to comply with Israel’s demands.

From the Yemeni standpoint, as millions poured onto the streets of the capital of Sanaa to protest the genocide in Gaza, they are effectively fulfilling their responsibility under Article 1 of the Genocide Convention, which again, Richard mentioned—which is the obligation to prevent genocide, and even to punish genocide to some degree. The blockade of occupied Palestine-bound ships in the Red Sea will end when the genocide or campaign against Palestinian ends and the siege is lifted on Gaza.

Now, the map that I’m showing here shows the conglomeration of the coalition ships, the US ships, the Iranian warships that are now entering—even Chinese ships. And I think here is where I would identify—and a few people have agreed with me—there is a potential for a false flag, the potential of seeing an event which might facilitate some kind of escalation, particularly against Yemen and potentially, of course, against Iran, which is seen very much as being the backer of the Ansarullah activities.

All members of the resistance axis are responding to extreme provocation with restraint in order to draw Israeli deeper into the quagmire of a failed ground war in Gaza and the multiple-front war currently being waged without overt US involvement. Of course, they are providing the bombs: 65,000 tons of explosives to date have been dropped on Gaza. They are helping with logistics and with funding. Delta forces have been identified as operating alongside the IOF. And, of course, they’ve given a tacit green light for Israel’s criminal military adventurism and genocide in Palestine, while actively involved in the targeting of resistance commandos and the triggering of proxies, including ISIS and Iraq in Syria and the increase of their own military footprint in Israel—particularly in the Negev Desert, in Iraq, and in Syria.      

Lebanon-based journalist Sharmine Narwani has recently written about the fact that Arab perceptions have shifted dramatically over Israel’s war on Gaza, with popular sentiment gravitating to those states and actors perceived to be actively supporting Palestinian goals and away from those who are perceived to support Israel. 

She says:

“But if the confrontation between the two axes escalates, Arab perceptions will almost certainly continue to tilt away from the old hegemons towards those who are willing to resist this assault on the region.

“There will be no relief for Washington and its allies as the war expands. The more they work to defeat Hamas and destroy Gaza, the more they lob missiles at Yemen, Iraq, and Syria and besiege the resistance axis, the more likely Arab populations are to shrug off the Sunni versus Shia, Iran versus Arab, secular versus Islamist narratives that have kept the region divided and at odds for decades . . .”

— which is where I come back to this emergence of a neo-Pan-Arabism we’ve seen in the last twelve months.

She also says:

“The swell of support that is mobilizing due to a righteous confrontation against the region’s biggest oppressors is unstoppable. Western decline is now a given in the region, but Western discourse has been the first casualty of this war.”

I will end there with some positive news, I hope.

Dr. Piers Robinson:

Thank you, Vanessa, for that fascinating overview of what is happening—well, not really an overview. There’s a lot of detail in there. Clearly, we’re at a very, very dangerous juncture at this point in time, which we’ll possibly come back to.

David Krieger (1942-2023): A Life of Dedication to the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons

21 Dec

[Prefatory Note: My In Memorium essay honoring David Krieger’s notable life was published in the December 21 Santa Barbara weekly newapaper, The Independent. Although David devoted his professional life to anti-nuclear scholarship and activism, his underlying motivationa were guided by fervent hopes for a world anchored in dignity for all and respect for the authority of international law and a robust United Nations]

Remembering my long, close, cherished friendship reinforces my sense of loss resulting from the death of David Krieger.

Our primary interests were unusually congruent. We were devoted to a world in which nuclear weapons and the danger of a nuclear war had become an unpleasant recollection rather than an existential menace. We both found great satisfaction as well as a sense of personal liberation playing competitive tennis as often as our schedules would allow. And we both expressed our deepest feelings about the world through poetry, both reading and writing poems.

David excelled in each of these spheres while I struggled, but despite this hierarchy of relative achievements, we managed to find pleasure through sharing much that seemed happily uncorrupted by the pressures of normal professional life.

David was well-known in Santa Barbara. He was the founding president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation in 1982 until his reluctant retirement in 2020. He managed to sustain this nongovernmental organization (NGO) through the support from an array of donors, many drawn from local sources. He put together a Board of Directors and staff that shared his single-minded dedication to the abolition of nuclear weapons, which for him was the darkest cloud overhanging the future of humanity.

David firmly believed that reliable knowledge conveying the drastic havoc of a nuclear war would awaken both the citizenry and its governmental representatives to the menace that threatened the future, ever since the atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. The spirit of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation was well captured by its website adages: “For the human race, Not the arms race” and “Abolish nuclear weapons before they abolish us.”

David never lost his hope for such a peaceful future for the country and the world, despite his knowledge of how deeply embedded nuclearism was in the political and economic consciousness of the nation, through the arms industry, a subservient Congress and media, and militarist foreign policy.

In lectures of invited peace luminaries and awards for life achievements, the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation honored those who contributed to realizing its goals, including Daniel Ellsberg, Noam Chomsky, and Robert Jay Lifton, celebrated activists such as Nobel Laureate Mairead Maguire and Helen Caldicott, and notable personalities such as Queen Noor and Oliver Stone.

For such prolonged anti-nuclear efforts, it is hardly surprising that David and the Peace Foundation were nominated on several occasions for the Nobel Peace Prize. In the recent book, The Real Nobel Peace Prize: A Squandered Opportunity to Abolish War, the renowned Norwegian expert on this most coveted of peace prizes, Fredrik Heffermehl, writes convincingly that David deserved the prize more than many of its recipients because his life’s work and that of the foundation he created. Heffermehl believed that the foundation’s contributions were in keeping with what Alfred Nobel had in mind when he established the prize to realize a vision of a world without war. David’s focus on nuclear weaponry was the vital first step in achieving this goal.

If nuclearism was what David hated, what he loved, besides his family, was poetry. It was a great joy for me to exchange haiku with David on a regular basis. Here are two examples of his haiku that should be read in relation to the profound impact the Hiroshima experience had on David’s life:

There, in the dark sky
through the sycamore leaves
the full moon

A rare good fortune —
to awaken from dreaming
in the moonlight

Although disease made him unable to speak, David remained alert until the end of his life, undoubtedly mourning the terrible wars in Ukraine and Gaza, but I also imagine him glimpsing glimmers of light, none brighter than knowing that the foundation his life was built around would continue to thrive under the sway of its inspirational new president, Ivana Hughes. She shares David’s passion, exhibiting a nurturing energy far and wide that spreads the message of nuclear disarmament, effectively introducing the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation abolitionist perspective into the practical activities of the United Nations and many other global venues around the world.

A second glimmer of light is the entry into force of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in 2021. Although the treaty is opposed by NATO countries, including of course the United States, as well as by the other eight nuclear states, it is supported by governments representing a majority of the world’s peoples. David never lost his faith in respect for international law as the pathway to a peaceful world. This new treaty gives peace activists a powerful instrument by which to work toward a denuclearizing world, but it will not happen without a robust worldwide movement of people. That alone, with the capacities to mobilize sufficient democratic pressures, will lead governments — above all, ours — to finally do the right thing.

Above all, David believed in the transforming potential of love and beauty. His life was memorable for more than being a warrior for nuclear abolition. He was blessed by the love and the extraordinary support of his life partner, Carolee; children who made him proud; and grandchildren who kept him young as he grew old. It was Carolee who was so steadfast in her loving vigil of recent years as to make David’s transition from life to death as bearable, even mostly joyful, as it appeared to be.

Political Infernos: United States, Turkey, Egypt

28 Jun

A New Political Inferno: Polarization of Immature Democracies

 

Prelude

 

To begin with, I know of no truly mature political democracy on this, although to be sure some rest on a more stable political base than others. Most importantly, some forces of opposition despair of ever succeeding by democratic procedures, while others pin their hopes on the next election, or the one after that. Some democracies have greater economic stability or can boast of high growth rates, possess a larger private sector and bigger middle class with more to lose, than others. Some states are more vulnerable to foreign interference than others, and some have formidable foreign enemies that seek regime change or something worse.

 

Perhaps, more victimized than any most modern societies, Germany devastated after World War I was caught in the midst of recovering from a humiliating military defeat accentuated by vindictive victors, a resulting economic depression featuring high unemployment and runaway inflation. Its pathetic enactment of liberal democracy could neither find credible solutions nor adopt principled positions. It should not be surprising that an extreme form of political polarization emerged in response, producing disastrous results not only for Germany but for Europe and the world: Communism versus Fascism. Battles raged between these antagonists in the streets of German cities, and the Nazis emerged triumphant even at the ballot box, helped by the complicity of cartelized big business and the ethos of the Bavarian elites hostile to any hint of democratic politics. The rest is history.

 

Today, there exist an assortment of deeply worrisome encounters between political extremes brought on by a range of conditioning circumstances. As a first approximation I would mention three disturbing instances, each distinctive, yet each afflicted by destructive polarized politics: Egypt, Turkey, and the United States.

 

Infernal Polarization and the Creative Dialectic

 

Before offering some comments on the three cases, it seems helpful to clarify what is meant by ‘polarization.’ There are several features, varying with context,  grievances, goals, outlook, and unity of the opposition, as well as the response of those in control of the government, the economy, and sometimes the military, but there are also certain shared characteristics that encourage generalizations: On discourse: in a polarized polity the opposition seldom reasons and never listens, while those governing rarely hear what critics say and almost never engage in serious self-scrutiny; reasonableness is seen by both sides more often as a lack of conviction and principle rather than as an expression of respect and inclusiveness: moderation is out, polemics are in. On governance: both sides are generally inhibited from offering compromises and accommodations for fear of seeming weak, and thereby alienating their base of support. On tactics: the opposition seeks instability and dissatisfaction, and if possible a climate of opinion that demands change either by constitutional means or by a populist uprising that makes the country ungovernable; the government, in contrast, obtains law and order by whatever means are at its disposal, often provoking worse opposition by employing excessive force.

 

There is also an emergent form of polarization that may be more productive of positive results, and seems often to be hiding behind the curtain of its infernal other. It is a youth oriented rejection of all traditional forms of political rivalry: parties, programs, politicians. Pox on both your houses! This kind of creative dialectic takes many forms depending on heritage, context, and cultural sensibilities.

 

In its most radical forms a creative dialectic is a bottom up momentum, sometimes substituting humor, sensuality, and satire for polemics, valuing all forms of inclusiveness, welcoming the participation of LGBT activists, celebrating the joy of living, and committed to governing from below. A rather restrained form of such a creative dialectic can easily confused with ‘infernal polarization.’ It was such a creative dialectic that flourished in Tahrir Square during those remarkable 18 days in January 2011, reflected in the spirit of the 99% that brightened the skies above Wall Street, St. Paul’s Cathedral in London, and many other cities for some hopeful months later in the same year, and just recently again became manifest during the early days of the Gezi Park protests in Istanbul and the Brazilian risings. A benevolent future for democratic societies depends on nourishing these forces of mainly youth and malcontents that have ‘invented’ their version of a creative dialectic while not partaking of the largely negative energies of infernal polarization that are pushing many societies to the risky precipices of implosion.

 

Why infernal? The legitimating premise of a democratic society is some form of consent by the governed, normally by the political verdicts delivered at periodic, fair and free elections. In the extreme instances of infernal polarization, the opposition seeks to change the rules of the political game by forcing the elected leaders to surrender their power or face chaos or a military takeover. It may be democracy to end autocracy (as with Mubarak) or it make take aim at democracy (as with Morsi), ultimately, the politics of the Reichstag fire (1933), the military takeover in Algeria after the 1991 electoral triumph of Islamists, and the unfulfilled phantasies of extreme Kemalists in Turkey.

 

An abusive or highly incompetent and corrupt majority invites radical forms of dissent, and so it is not fair to put all the blame on the side of the opposition. It all depends. An autocratic option for the governing majority is to cancel elections, invite a military to take over, and throw in the towel of democratic legitimacy. In effect, polarization becomes infernal because it inclines both government and opposition to adopt extreme positions usually for contradictory reasons, either the majority becomes oppressive and greedy or the minority becomes desperate, despairing of gaining control over the levers of governance by fair play. Of course, in racist Rhodesia or apartheid South Africa it was the abusive minority that held the majority in chains, and yet had the temerity to claim lawful and legitimate governance. At minimum, infernal polarization jeopardizes and impairs the quality of democracy, and its persistence, is likely to impose a death sentence on what be called ‘the realm of decent politics.’

 

Comparisons

 

            The mildest instance of infernal polarization is currently evident in the United States, although it may be the most consequential, given America’s global projection of hard power and its world leadership role. Increasingly, the domestic political atmosphere is beset by a polarizing opposition that rejects reasonableness in its preoccupation with inducing the elected leadership to fail and thus disappoint the electorate even if the result is overall decline for the society, especially its poorest 40-60%. The Tea Party mentality of opposition to the Obama presidency is mainly expressed by way of polarizing rhetoric and irresponsible Congressional behavior, but its worldview is extremist, and regards with a scary sympathy right-wing advocates of anti-democratic and even violent tactics. In the background is the post-9/11 mainstream moves to monitor the behavior of the entire citizenry, regarding each person, whether citizen or not, as a potential terrorist, and possibly a target for assassination. On the one side of the divide is a rejection of compassionate governance and an unconditional libertarian distrust of government, while on the other side is the expectation that citizens will forfeit their freedoms to the Orwellian security claims of a government engaged in a perpetual war against its enemies who could be hiding in the bushes situated anywhere in the world including within its borders, or even deep in the bowels of its most secretive bureaucratic domains.

 

How else to interpret the vindictive fury, cries of ‘treason!’ even by supposedly liberal politicians and media stalwarts against such public spirited whistle-blowers as Bradley Manning and Edward Snowden? To tell the secrets of government is not a matter of breaching security, but it is a massive, acknowledgement of cruelty and criminality. The messenger must be mercilessly destroyed so as to frighten potential future messenger, and the message shredded and forgotten. Whether such a pattern governance and opposition is to remain relatively ‘mild’ is a matter for debate, but so far the framework of constitutional government has been superficially maintained, and neither an appeal nor threat of a military coup seems imminent.

 

Less containable within the boundaries of constitutional government is the virus of infernal polarization that has been afflicting Turkey for the past eleven years, ever since the AK Party gained a plurality in the 2002 elections. Particularly the traditional Kemalist opposition, long the governing majority, has seen its grip on power slip away in this young century as the AKP has won successively more impressive electoral victories. At base there is a polarization that is sometimes confusingly phrased as an opposition between traditional and modern values, although there is an important dimension of the rivalry and distrust that pits the religiously observant against the secularly permissive, but really the tension is between different visions of modernity expressed as secularism versus religion. The AKP is all for modern business and science, has turned many keys of power over to the private sector, although its main leaders are privately devout, avoid alcohol and gambling, pray daily, and marry women who cover their heads.  Also, there are class and regional tensions, with the AKP being seen as a slightly disguised movement of political Islam, while the secular opposition, and its political parties, represent the social and nationalist elites that were associated with the life and leadership of Kemal Ataturk that above all saw a modern future for the country depending on mimicking European life styles and church/state relations.

 

These Europeanized elites were never really willing to cede power to their AKP rivals, and counted on a military intervention to end the political nightmare, and validated by judicial activism from the high court dominated by Kemalist holdovers that shared the sense that the AKP posed a dire threat to the Turkish republic as established by Ataturk. When these anti-democratic plans of the opposition failed to materialize, the opposition grew increasingly frustrated and bitter, and began to see itself as a permanently beleaguered opposition with little hope of regaining control. On the other side, as the AKP and its charismatic leader, Recip Teyyip Erdogan, rode the ever higher waves of success, became contemptuous of their opposition, and seemed to pose an autocratic threat given concrete form via Erdogan’s ‘presidential project.’

 

Simultaneously, many urban youth in Turkey yearned for a permissive social milieu, a redeeming purpose for their lives, and deeply resented the tendency of Erdogan to express his constraining personal life style preferences as if they should become the law of the land. It was this combination of factors that suddenly erupted in reaction to the plans to transform Gezi Park into a shopping center. What was evident, along with the anti-Erdogan animus, was the clash between the old style of party politics as the negation of the AKP, and this new style that refrained from articulating its vision, but appeared to seek substantive and participatory democracy that was not only inclusive of and responsive to all elements in society, even the most marginal, but also seemed intent on reinventing the modalities of opposition and governance. There is confusion in Turkey, partly because this new youth politics of revolution is intertwined with the old party politics that wants to enjoy the fruits of power, prestige, and influence. It is encouraging and appropriate for this innovative current of Turkish politics to be holding nightly forums to discover what it is they believe and desire, and how to go about attaining it.

 

This political and cultural thrust of the Turkish protests needs to be understood against a background of economic stability and fantastic progress as assessed by standard economic indicators. Somehow, despite the inequality of benefits associated with this spurt of growth, and the presence of a large impoverished underclass, the AKP has so far maintained the support of the poor and disenfranchised. The agenda of social and economic rights was not entirely absent from the Turkish demonstrations, but it was certainly not salient. In contrast, the Brazilian protests, also coming after a decade of progress and left of center political leaders, found their unity in these social justice issues, especially rallying against the perception of corruption at the top and distorted priorities as embodied in expensive sports stadiums for international events while the Brazilian poor languished. Unlike Turkey, the Brazilian political scene is not polarized, and there is no comparable antipathy toward (or enthusiasm for) Dilma Rousseff as exists in relation to Erdogan. For these reasons, at least for now, Brazil with all its problems, and its opposition because more motivated by material demands may be more sustained, is still not to be categorized as infernally polarized.

 

Egypt is by far the most precarious of these three instances of infernal polarization, especially at the moment. For months it has become evident that an incompetent and beleaguered elected government headed by Mohamed Morsi was opposed by an irreconcilable opposition that would only be satisfied by the resignation of the elected leader, and new presidential elections far earlier than their scheduled 2016 date. As this process slides toward its awful and dreaded moment of truth on June 30th (a year to the day after Morsi was sworn in as president) when both sides have promised a show of populist force in the streets of Cairo and elsewhere in the country. Morsi has become for the opposition the new Mubarak, the latter provided the unifying element in those remarkable days of January 2011. Unlike Mubarak, however, Morsi has legions of Muslim supporters rallying to his side beneath the banner of ‘No to violence, Yes to legitimacy.’ But unlike Mubarak in 2011, even in 2012 when Ahmed Shafik, a Mubarak surrogate came within 2 percentage points of an electoral victory in a runoff election against Morsi), the once anti-Mubarak secular/Copt oppisition is now allied with the Mubarak remnant, as well as those who once hope for change, but now just want normalcy, especially with respect to the economy.

 

As brilliantly analyzed by Esam al-Amin (“Egypt’s Fateful Day,” Counterpunch, June 26, 2013), the outcome for Egypt is uncertain, but extremely dangerous as the country is in the midst of staggering unemployment, especially among the young, near 50%, living in poverty, stagnant development, a failing tourist sector, and dwindling currency reserves, while also being engaged in a potentially dangerous conflict with Ethiopia over the damming of the upper Nile whose waters are indispensable to Egypt’s subsistence as a nation. In other words, the political confrontation on June 30th takes place against a backdrop of economic and foreign policy crisis, and will not be resolved in the street because both sides seem to have formidable backing. The only way to avoid such a dismal and demoralizing unraveling would seem to be either a sudden moderating of opposition demands or a reentry of the military into the governing process, thereby canceling the extraordinary achievement of Tahrir Square, a regression of unimaginably demoralizing proportions.

 

I recall my visit to Cairo weeks after the overthrow of Mubarak when great excitement about and support for an inclusive democratic process existed in most circles, although some suspicions were also voiced. At that time, the secular forces seemed confident that they could control Egypt’s political future. The sentiment expressed in Cairo was that the Muslim Brotherhood should by all means be encouraged to participate in elections, and was likely to win support at the 30% level. It was further conjectured that this would be fine, but that if it was at a level of 40% the country would be in trouble. When the initial elections for the parliament disclosed far stronger Muslim support than anticipated, including over 20% for Salafi parties that were far more socially conservative and politically constraining than the MB, it was clear that the future was not what the anti-Mubarak secular liberals expected or wanted, and with the passage of time, especially since Morsi managed to win the presidency in a close vote, this implacable opposition hardened to the point of outright defiance. No matter what kind of peace offerings were made

by Morsi, the opposition was not interested. The composition of this opposition is also a restored blend of Mubarak fulools, disenchanted secular liberals and , and a reenergized revolutionary youth, which is quite a political brew that would seems an expedient coalition that is likely to survive only so long as the Brotherhood runs the country. If the Egyptian situation is not bad enough, there are a variety of foreign governments that would like to push the political process in one direction or another, including the Gulf giants of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and of course, the United States and Israel. For different reasons, it would seem that all these foreign meddlers would if the situation further deteriorates, will side with the opposition, which certainly had feeble democratic credentials, and is suspected, as with the Kemalist opposition in Turkey, of looking with favor at a takeover of the reins of government by the repoliticized Egyptian military.

 

A Concluding Observation

 

            Infernal polarization is unlikely to give rise to efficient and humane forms of democratization, unless transformed from within by a creative dialectic that seeks to transcend traditional political encounters. As the future unfolds it will become clearer as to whether this positive scenario has sufficient traction to both end polarization and offer something new by way of democratic governance. At present, there are few reasons to be hopeful about these prospects for the United States, Turkey, and Egypt. In some respects, Turkey offers the most hope of the three cases as its governing leadership has achieved much that is beneficial for the society, and the polarized opposition seems capable of exerting strong reformist pressures that yet fall short of threatening to capsize the ship of state.

 

 

 

Forget ‘Normal’ Politics

5 Feb

 

 

            Political life is filled with policy choices that are made mainly on the basis of calculations of advantage, as well as reflecting priorities and values of those with the power of decision. In a constitutional framework of governance the rule of law sets outer limits as to permissible outcomes. The legitimacy of the decision depends on adhering to these procedural guidelines, and the fact that if the societal effects turn out badly it can be corrected by altering the ‘law.’ Of course, all sorts of special interests behind the scene manipulate this process, and the public debate mirrors these pressures. The results of highly contested policy choices usually reflect the power structure (class, race, ideology) more than they do the outcome of rational detached assessments of the public good. At present, the national public good in the United States is being held hostage to the lethal extremism of the gun lobby as led by the National Rifle Association (NRA), which combines special interest politics with a political culture that is violent and militarist. Such a political culture seems unlikely to be able to prohibit the sale of automatic assault weaponry to private citizens even in the immediate aftermath of a series of horrific shootings in American schools and public spaces by individuals gaining access to assault rifles and pistols.

 

            If we agree with this line of interpretation, we must have the courage to raise radical questions as to whether under these conditions a flawed democracy is any longer capable of serving the national public good in fundamental respects. In my view, the only morally responsible position is to mobilize the citizenry around the need for drastic reform of American democracy. At the very least, the role of big money in shaping policy choices and the electoral process must be ended, and the glorification of violence and militarism must be repudiated. To seek such results a reliance on  normal politics is to inhabit the land of illusion. In some respects, a revolutionary situation is present in the country but a revolutionary movement is no where to be seen. Only utopian reasoning can be hopeful about the future of the country, and it is the case of hope against hope. 

 

            This politicization of policy choice is to some extent inevitable, and is usually not so threatening to the wellbeing of a country, but at present there are increasingly harmful repercussions that follow, also with respect to global stability and security. Within societies where policy choice depends on governmental action there is a play of contending forces, but the outcome is at least coherently oriented around a shared commitment to the national public good. Internationally, in contrast, there are no social forces, other than transnational civil society actors (NGOs), that are dedicated to the global public good. Governments, including that of the United States, determine and justify national policy choices by reference to the pursuit of national interests. When a dominant state opts to play a global leadership role as the United States did after 1945, it can sometimes promote a type of imperial world order that is beneficial to itself, but also at the same time helpful to most other states and to the human community generally. Such initiatives as financing the economic reconstruction of Western Europe, the establishment of the United Nations, and the promotion of international human rights illustrate such a convergence of national and global interests. But note that global interests, aside from civil society advocacy groups, have no independent base of support. Even the United Nations, which is supposed to promote peace and justice for the whole of humanity is little more than a collection of unequal states each jealous of its sovereign prerogatives. In addition, the UN gives an unrestricted special blocking power (veto) to the five permanent members of the Security Council. The UN despite its many contributions has been unable to become effective in curtailing violations of international law by leading states and their friends and has not been able to meet such global challenges as ridding the world of nuclear weaponry or fashioning a constructive response to climate change.

 

            In relation to climate change there has been an overwhelming consensus among relevant experts for over two decades that global warming is causing severe harm to the ecology of the planet, and that this situation is likely to reach an irreversible tipping point if the average temperature on the earth rises above a 2°C level compared to what it was at the start of the industrial age. This knowledge had been irresponsibly contested by a well-funded campaign of climate skeptics that has been especially effective in the United States in hijacking the public debate, and undermining policy choices that are in accord with the scientific consensus. The skeptic undertaking is funded by fossil fuel interests, and is being managed by some of the same public relations firms that delayed public appreciation of the link between cancer and cigarette smoking by several decades. This campaign has destroyed the capacity of the United States to play a constructive leadership role needed to establish an obligatory framework for prudent restrictions on the level of greenhouse gas emissions. Without U.S. leadership there is lacking the political will on a global level to act with sufficient seriousness to protect the global interest, and human destiny becomes jeopardized in a highly destructive manner from the perspective of species survival.

 

             Just as national democracy needs drastic reform, so do the structures and procedures of world order. One direction of reform would be to establish institutions with resources and capabilities to serve distinctively global interests. Steps in such a direction would include a global revenue producing mechanism, a global peoples parliament, an independent UN peace and emergency relief force, a repeal of the veto right in the Security Council, a revision of the authority of the International Court of Justice by converting current ‘advisory opinions’ into binding enforceable decisions, convening a nuclear disarmament process, and upgrading the existing UN Environmental Program (UNEP) to the status of super-agency called UN Agency on Environmental Protection and Climate Change.

 

            Such a thought experiment as this is oblivious to horizons of feasibility that befuddle politicians and set artificial parameters limiting responsible debate.  My diagnosis is anchored in an interpretation of horizons of necessity. By recognizing this huge gap between feasibility and necessity it is implied that normal politics are futile, and in their place we are forced to embrace utopian politics, which can be described as horizons of desire, faith, and hope.

 

A Few Notes on WHAT IS LEFT (or Toward a Manifesto for Revolutionary Emancipation)

19 Jun

 

WHAT IS LEFT in two senses:

 

            –what remains of the historic left, conceived more universally as emancipatory politics independent of place and cultural nexus; that is, not

just Marxism, and its progeny, but all forms of resistance to oppression, including by indigenous peoples or in response to religious convictions;

            –the definitional challenge associated with defining ‘the left’ under contemporary conditions; the position taken here is that the left is somewhat obsolete if conceived in Eurocentric terms as opposition to the right, and needs to be conceived in relation to visions and projects of emancipation and through the aperture of historic struggles.

 

Toward a Manifesto for Revolutionary Emancipation:

            –the need for a radical depiction of transformative politics that takes full account of the historical particularity of present world conditions;

            –the importance of repudiating and transcending the anti-utopian ethos of prevailing political perspectives on change and reform;

            –the potentiality of generalizing a politics that seeks a just and sustainable future for all living beings on the planet;

            –the engagement with a conversational approach to political advocacy, and a corresponding rejection of all forms of dogmatic thinking.

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The ‘left’ agenda of the early 21st century:

 

            –support for the Palestinian Solidarity Movement, including its BDS campaign as both a creative form of resistance to oppressive circumstances, not just territorial occupation, but also to the struggle to overcome the enforced refugee and displacement status that has afflicted millions of Palestinians for more than six decades and a vision of justice and reconciliation;

            –struggle against global capitalism, especially in its neoliberal globalizing phase of super-financialization, as fundamentally unjust and unsustainable;

            –support for movement from below to push for adjustments to the challenges of climate change; the emissions of greenhouse gasses must be drastically reduced as an urgent priority; waiting until the harm is sufficiently tangible to produce effective governmental responses will be waiting too long, and involves the neglect of justice to future generations and indifferent to the present sufferings of sub-Saharan  Africa, islands and coastal areas subject to flooding.

 

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The leading forces for and against emancipatory politics:

 

            –FOR: the declining effectiveness of hard power politics either in its governmental or resistance forms; militarism is failing, although the political elites of the world, led by the United States, seem oblivious to this decisive historical trend; confirmations include the revolutionary potential of the Arab Spring, as well as the outcome of the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, and the still persisting Afghanistan War; it is not that military power has become irrelevant, but that it rarely in this historical period determines the political outcome; the great series of struggles in the last 60 years against colonialism ended with victory by the militarily weaker side, or by the side, as in India, that did not contest the imperial presence by violent forms of resistance; in contrast, hard power warfare and rulership were effective in earlier historical eras, and throughout the world;

 

        –AGAINST: the spreading of materialist consumerism as the new opiate of the people that hides the destructive and alienating dimensions of late modernity, and shields capitalist behavior from transformative critique; economic globalization as exhibited through franchise capitalism is the most widely endorsed regressive ideology operative in the world today, and is characteristic in different formats of the two leading exponents of the capitalist path: the United States and China. The absence of a counter-ideology of wide applicability after the Soviet collapse combined with discrediting a socialist ethos as alternative foundation for economic and political activity and organization has contributed to a widespread mood of resignation (‘there are no alternatives’). Replacing despair with hope is indispensable if new

globally attractive forms of emancipatory politics are to emerge and evolve.

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Comments on Legitimacy Wars as the encompassing form of struggle:

 

–an overriding recognition of the historical ascendancy of soft power;

–tactical and strategic commitments to nonviolence, although not unconditionally;

–crucial emphasis on gaining the high moral ground to widen popular appeal,

and use of law as an instrument to mobilize support, especially international law (‘lawfare’ as an approved modality of struggle);

–use of international arenas, whether regional or global, local or national, to wage symbolic struggles on behalf of legitimate claims, with a special stress on the symbolic significance of gaining support in the United Nations;

–understanding that most struggles for legitimate goals are non-territorial in relation to the symbolic and soft power battlefields that give potency to public opinion, to exemplary leadership (e.g Gandhi, Nelson Mandela); to tactics such as boycott, divestment, and sanctions, and to the certification of the moral and legal authority of grievances and claims (e.g. the Goldstone Report);

–patience and perseverance  as cardinal political virtues, along with the realization that legitimacy wars can be lost as well as won, with outcomes contingent on many contextual factors (e.g. self-determination for Tibetans, Chechens; indigenous peoples);

–a vision of the goal that includes reconciliation, accountability, and forgiveness, with the realization that there will be tensions and contradictions present in clearing the path forward, away from conflict, toward sustainable and just peace.

 

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These notes are meant as tentative and conversational expressions of an emergent political point of view, and will be revised in response to commentary by others. Obviously, also, there is no pretension on my part of comprehensiveness, or else many other issues would have been addressed: struggles against various types of patriarchy; the need to renounce nuclear weaponry, and work toward a phased process of nuclear disarmament, as well as other aspects of demilitarization; extending rights of self-determination to indigenous peoples variously situated; and establishing institutional arrangements giving opportunities for popular and direct representation of the peoples of the world (e.g. a UN Parliament of Peoples); building in all social spaces substantive democracy based on the equality of persons, reverence for the natural environment, and celebration of diverse spiritual and religious traditions. A cosmopolitan ethos that affirms love of self and others, tradition and otherness, and the familiar and the exotic.

Is The State a Monster? Pro and Contra Nietzsche

16 Jun

In Part One of  Friederich Nietzsche’s Thus Spake Zarathustra there is a particularly provocative section entitled ‘Of the New Idol.’ Remembering that this pivotal writing of the great German thinker/philosopher, so often misinterpreted, was written in 1881, it is surprising how relevant and invigorating its strong language remains in 2011. In his Introduction to the Penguin edition of Zarathustra, R.J. Hollingdale, the distinguished Nietzsche scholar and translator writes, “[t]he book’s worst fault is excess.” But excess can also be constructive, making us think harder. The cultural historian, Norman O. Brown, once remarked during a lecture that “[i]n psychoanalysis only the exaggerations are valuable.” Why? It makes us consider even awkward realities beneath the surface that are usually outside the box of what is treated as ‘responsible debate’ according to establishment pundits who set themselves up to be the arbiters of convention at a given society, at a given time. The dynamics of denial, so well known to psychologists, are a particularly virulent mechanism by which we protect our comfort zone from intrusion by inconvenient truths.

 

            It should be understood that Zarathustra as a character in the treatise is presented as the prophetic voice of Nietzsche, the person who stands outside and in solitude so as to understand better what is taking place inside, a voice that is shrill with anger, impassioned by conviction, and dedicated to truth-telling, however heretical. It should be remembered that Nietzsche was experiencing a young German state that was seeking unity by promoting an intense cult of nationalism that would eventuate in self-destructive major wars twice in the 20th century. Also, Nietzsche’s pre-existentialist outlook emphasized the absence of metaphysical guidance in our life experience. We are on our own, and cannot validly rely on church or state to shape our own future. We cannot, without false conscience, escape the burdens of freedom and responsibility. Our lives unfold as if on a pathless journey unassisted by reliable signposts. In other words, it takes courage and strength to live life authentically. In this regard, subjection to the will of the state was, and remains, a prevalent and unacceptable form of escape from these burdens.

 

Such as escape is often glorified as ‘patriotism,’ underscoring the stark difference between the obedient subject and the conscience-stricken citizen. Most individuals in sovereign states are willing or unwilling subjects, few are willing to risk the travails of citizenship so conceived. The risings in Tunisia and Egypt, regardless of what will happens during the long morning after, can be understood as spontaneous, unexpected, and brace embrace of citizenship under most difficult conditions, risking a life-threatening punitive response by challenging the authority of the repressive regime in power.

 

            In “Of the New Idol” Nietzsche exclaims: “The state? What is that? Well then! Now open your ears, for now I shall speak to you of the death of peoples.” The passage goes on, “[t]he state is the coldest of all cold monsters. Coldly it lies, too; and this lie creeps from its mouth: ‘I, the state, am the people.” In this theatrical language Nietzsche is reminding us that for many the state becomes an idol to be unconditionally obeyed as if an infallible god, a forfeiture of freedom, a renunciation of citizenship in a humane political community, and a voluntary acceptance of subjugation of the spirit. Such a  ‘patriotic’ process has drastically diminished the quality of democratic life almost everywhere, and has given the state a green light to wage wars of choice, regardless of their bloody consequences.

 

            The coldness of the state, so far as human solidarity is concerned, is often most vividly revealed by extreme behavior: the Nazi death camps, the atomic bombs dropped on Japanese cities, the genocidal dispossession of indigenous peoples throughout the world, the cruelties of colonial rule, the long siege imposed on the people of Gaza, and on and on. The United States, claiming the mantle of leader of ‘the free world,’ remains ready to incinerate tens of millions of innocent civilians for the sake of regime survival for itself and allied governments. What could be colder? What could be more anti-human?

 

            Yet this kind of violence is always rationalized by reference to the evil of the other, which is supposed to contrast with the good of the state. Yet we find that the protected national population (composed of patriots) is not treated much better. The person of conscience who speaks in public against a war of aggression being waged by his own government can be charged with treason if the message is viewed as giving aid and comfort to ‘the enemy,’ and sentenced to death in many countries. The crime of treason is another symbolic expression of the coldness of the state, as are the tactics often exhibited in a civil war or in violent responses to insurgent challenges. Current events also manifest this icy coldness of the state: shooting unarmed demonstrators in the towns and cities of Syria and Libya, or along the borders of Israel.  This coldness that Nietzsche so resented is acutely present when those who press their grievances peacefully against the state are met with violence.

 

            And yet we must be careful. Nietzsche’s excess, however eye-opening, is still excel. History vindicates the case for limited government. We need protection to live moderate and satisfying lives, to avoid crippling feuds. Nietzsche, shouting to be heard, exaggerated in some ways that are not instructive. We must not deify the state, or renounce our responsibilities as citizens to speak truthfully, or free the government from its obligations at home and abroad to act within the law, but even most of those among us who try to be citizens in the proper sense would still not opt for the chaos of an ungoverned social order if given a free choice. Our task is to build a just and ethically accountable state, not to abandon the enterprise as futile.  It is not a middle ground that we seek that is content with more moderate forms of secular forms of idolatry. The struggle I support is what the French philosopher, Jacques Derrida, called for, I believe, when speaking of ‘the democracy to come.’

 

            We need to listen carefully to the words of Nietzsche, but not be seduced by them to indulge idolatry in its negative form. To remove the blindfold, and see the state as the coldest of monsters is a necessary wakeup call for which we should thank Nietzsche for, even now, 140 years after Zarathustra was published.  And yet we also need to resist the temptation to fall into a deeper sleep by adopting a posture of unrealizable and unacceptable negation of this strange political creature called the state. In the end, the state is not a monster, but a work in progress.     

 

 

What is Winning? The Next Phase for the Revolutionary Uprisings

24 Feb


Early in the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings it seemed that winning was understood by the massed demonstrators to mean getting rid of the hated leader, of Ben Ali in the Tunisian case, and Mubarak in the Egyptian. But as the process deepened it make clear that more was being demanded and expected, and that this had to do with restoring the material and spiritual dignity of life in all its aspects.

Without any assurance as to what ‘winning’ means in the setting of the extraordinary revolutionary uprisings that are continuing to rock the established order throughout the Arab world, it is likely to mean different things in the various countries currently in turmoil. But at the very least winning has so far meant challenging by determined and incredibly brave nonviolence the oppressive established order. This victory over long reigns of fear-induced pacification is itself a great transformative moment in 21st century history no matter what happens in the months ahead.

As Chandra Muzaffar, the widely respected Malaysian scholar who  religion and justice, compelling argues, the replacement of the old order by electoral democracy, while impressive as an accomplishment given the dictatorial rule of the past in these countries, will not be nearly enough to vindicate the sacrifices of the protestors. It is significantly better than those worst case scenarios that insist that the future will bring dismal varieties of ‘Mubarakism without Mubarak,’ which would change the faces and names of the rulers but leave the oppressive and exploitative regimes essentially in tact. This would definitely be a pyrrhic victory, given the hopes and demands that motivated the courageous political challenges embodied in withstanding without weapons the clubs, rubber bullets, live ammunition, and overall brutality, as well as the uncertainty as to what the soldiers in the streets would do when the order to open fire at the demonstrators came from the beleaguered old guard.

What is needed beyond constitutional democracy is the substantive realization of good and equitable governance: this includes, above all, people-oriented economic policies, an end to corruption, and the protection of human rights, including especially economic and social rights.  Such an indispensable agenda recognizes that the primary motivation of many of the demonstrators was related to their totally alienating entrapment in a jobless future combined with the daily struggle to obtain the bare necessities of a tolerable life.

There is present here both questions of domestic political will and governmental capability to redirect the productive resources and distributive policies of the society. How much political space is available to alter the impositions of neoliberal globalization that was responsible for reinforcing, if not inducing, the grossly inequitable and corrupting impact of the world economy on the structuring of domestic privilege and deprivation? Not far in the background is an extended global recession that may be deepened in coming months due to alarming increases in commodity prices, especially food. According to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization the world Food Price Index reached a record high in December 2010, a level exceeded by another 3% rise in January of this year. Lester Brown, a leading expert on world food and environment, wrote a few days ago that “[t]he world is now one poor harvest away from chaos in world grain markets.” [International Herald Tribune, Feb 23, 2011]

With political turmoil threatening world energy supplies, oil prices are also surging, allegedly further endangering the uneven and fragile economic recovery in the United States and Europe. Global warming adds a further troubling feature to this deteriorating situation, with droughts, floods, fires, and storms making it difficult to maintain crop yields, much increase food production to meet increasing demands of the world’s growing population.

These impinging realities will greatly complicate the already formidable difficulties facing new leaders throughout the Arab world seeking with a sense of urgency to create job opportunities and affordable supplies of food for their citizenries. This challenge is intensified by the widely shared high expectations of improved living circumstances. If the autocratic prior regime was held responsible for mass impoverishment of the many and the scandalously excessive enrichment of the few, is it not reasonable to suppose that the more democratic successor governments should establish without much delay greatly improved living conditions? And further, how could it be claimed that the heroic uprising was worthwhile if the quality of life of ordinary citizens, previously struggling to avert the torments of impoverishment, does not start improving dramatically almost immediately? An understandably impatient public may not give their new leaders the time that need, given these conditions, to make adjustments that will begin to satisfy these long denied hopes and needs. Perhaps, the public will be patient if there are clear signs that the leaders are trying their hardest and even if actual progress is slow, there is some evidence that the material conditions of the populace are, at least, on an ascending slope.

Even if the public is patient beyond reason, and understands better than can be prudently expected, the difficulties of achieving economic justice during a period of transition to a new framework of governance, there may be still little or no capacity to fulfill public expectations due to the impact of these worsening global conditions.  It is quite possible that if the worst food/energy scenarios unfold, famines and food riots could occur, casting dark shadows of despair across memories of these historic victories that made the initial phases of each national uprising such a glowing testament to the human spirit, which seemed miraculously undaunted by decades of oppression and abuse.

It needs also to be kept in mind that often the slogans of the demonstrators highlighted a thirst for freedom and rights. Even though there is little experience of democratic practice throughout the region, there will likely be a serious attempt by new governing institutions to distinguish their practices from those of their hated forebears, and allow for the exercise of all forms of oppositional activity, including freedom of expression, assembly, and party formation. Unlike the problems associated with creating jobs and providing for material needs, the establishment of the atmosphere of a free society is within the physical capacities of a new leadership if the political will exists to assume the unfamiliar risks associated with democratic practices. We must wait and see how each new leadership handles these normative challenges of transition. It remains to be seen as to whether the difficulties of transition are intensified by counterrevolutionary efforts to maintain or restore the old deforming structures and privileges. These efforts are likely to be aided and abetted by a range of covert collaborative undertakings joining external actors with those internal forces threatened by impending political change.

And if this overview was not discouraging enough, there is one further consideration. As soon as the unifying force of getting rid of the old leadership is eroded, if not altogether lost, fissures within the oppositions are certain to emerge. There will be fundamental differences as between radical and liberal approaches to transition, and especially whether to respect the property rights and social hierarchies associated with the old regime, or to seek directly to correct the injustices and irregularities of the past. Some critics of the Mandela approach to reconciliation and transition in South Africa believe that his acceptance of the social and economic dimensions of the repudiated apartheid structure have resulted in a widely felt sense of revolutionary disappointment, if not betrayal, in South Africa.

There will also be tactical and strategic differences about how to deal with the world economy, especially with respect to creating stability and attractive conditions for foreign investment. It is here that tensions emerge as between safeguarding labor rights and making investors feel that their operations will remain profitable in the new political environment.

This recitation of difficulties is not meant to detract attention from or to in any way diminish the glorious achievements of the revolutionary uprisings, but to point to the unfinished business that must be addressed if revolutionary aspirations are going to be able to avoid disillusionment. So often revolutionary gains are blunted or even lost shortly after the old oppressors have been dragged from the stage of history. If ever there exists the need for vigilance it at these times when the old order is dying and the new order is struggling to be born. As Gramsci warned long ago this period of inbetweeness is vulnerable to a wide range of predatory tendencies. It is a time when unscrupulous elements can repress anew even while waving a revolutionary banner and shouting slogans about defending the revolution against its enemies. And a difficulty here is that the enemies may well be real as well as darkly imagined. How many revolutions in the past have been lost due to the machinations of their supposed guardians?

Let us fervently hope that the mysteries of the digital age will somehow summon the creative energy to manage the transition to sustainable and substantive democracy as brilliantly as it earlier staged the revolutionary uprisings.