The Nuclear Agreement (JCPOA, 2015) Should be Renewed

25 Aug

[Prefatory Note: Richard Falk Responses to Questions posed by Mohamadreza Farahzadi, of the international desk of Farhikhtegan Daily pertaining to long process of rejoining this agreement limited Iran to the development of civilian nuclear power technology; the text of my responses and the title has been modified. It is one more example that undoing the human and diplomatic harm of Trump’s international legacy is a complex matter that not only exhibits the persisting influence of unrepentant Trumpists but the passivity of the Democratic Party leadership, particularly when it dares to disagree with Israel on a matter of foreign policy concern.]

1. According to the reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is responsible for monitoring Iran’s nuclear commitments, Tehran was fully fulfilling its obligations according to the JCPOA until the US withdrew from it. However, even after the withdrawal of the USA from the JCPOA, these approvals continued and were accepted by the existing members as well.

It seems that Iran, which started adjusting its nuclear commitments a year after the withdrawal of the USA from the JCPOA, has no problem with returning to its previous commitments. In the meantime, the only problem that is the main reason for the existence of JCPOA revival negotiations is the withdrawal of the United States from the agreement during the Trump era and its not returning during the Biden administration. Accordingly, Iran in general is only seeking guarantees so that it will not be deprived of the economic benefits of fulfilling its obligations. Why has the USA refused to return to the JCPOA?

Response: I share the view that the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from JCPOA was the sole explanation for the breakdown of the 2015 agreement, which as you suggest, was working well, with the IAEA confirming Iran’s compliance. This compliance was impressive insofar as Israel continuing to violate Iranian sovereignty by engaging unlawful and provocative ways involving further efforts to disrupt Iran’s legitimate nuclear program, including the assassination of nuclear scientists and acts of sabotage directed at nuclear facilities..

It is correct to point out that Biden would encounter political difficulties in providing a meaningful guaranty to Iran that a future president of the United States would not again withdraw as Trump would almost certainly do should he be reelected in 2024. Biden is also under pressure from Israel and from domestic politics with an mid-term election scheduled for November 2022, not to rejoin the JCPOA, at least not without additional constraints on Iran relating to non-nuclear armaments and regional political activity and a green light to Israel’s unilateral efforts to violate Iran’s sovereignty for purposes associated with alleged security concerns..

If fairness were to prevail, the. U.S. would repudiate Israeli efforts to shape U.S. foreign policy and rejoin JCPOA without any new preconditions, and accompanied by certain conciliatory acts that were in effect an apologetic acknowledgement of the harm endured by Iran and its people due to the wrongful withdrawal in 2018.

2. In recent weeks, the European Union has presented a final proposal package to Iran and the United States to revive the agreement. Iran quickly responded to the package of the European Union. Citing sources in Europe who had access to the text, some media have called Iran’s text “constructive”. However, the United States has so far refused to respond to the package proposed by Europe and maintains that it is still examining the package and Iran’s response to it. Does the fact that Iran’s speed in responding and its content which has been called “constructive” by European sources, have been faced by the delay of USA, imply Democrats’ unwillingness to revive JCPOA? The conjecture is intensified having in mind the notion that the mid-term elections of the Congress are near and returning to Iran nuclear deal can have negative results for the Democrats.

Response: I would suspect that the major explanation for the delay on the U.S, side is its search for a formula that will lessen Israeli and domestic public criticism for moving toward an acceptance of this latest proposal package table by the EU. Unlike the U.S., Iran does not need to consult with other governmental or political entities before fashioning its response. The European sources asserting that Iran’s proposals are ‘constructive’ undoubtedly is intended to influence Washington to respond in a similar favorable manner to that of Iran, and hence close to consummating a new deal.

This outlook reflects overwhelming sentiments that JCPOA is a positive framework for tension reduction and war avoidance in the Middle East that deserves widespread support to overcome these unfortunate pockets of continuing opposition to any agreement with Iran, and persisting demands to renew and even intensify the coercive approach to Iran by way of sanctions that lasted almost 25 years. Israel has attacked the proposed renewal of JCPOA on three unconvincing grounds: first,, that it will not stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weaponry, posing severe threats to the security of countries in the region; that sanctions relief will provide the Iranian government with $100 billion per year to fund ‘terrorist’ organizations’ (specifically, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jirhad); and by agreeing to such an arrangement the U.S. signals a lack of resolve to oppose Iranian expansionism .

3. Iran is strongly seeking to receive a guarantee from the United States that Washington will not withdraw from the nuclear agreement. However, the United States ignores Iran’s request on the pretext that it is not able to make such a promise based on the structures of the United States. Although Washington’s argument may seem correct at first glance, in any case, countries have international and bilateral obligations that all their administrations must respect.

On the other hand, as the Iranian authorities have announced, it seems that they want to increase the moral cost of the USA withdrawal, because in practice, if Washington or even another country wants to withdraw from the agreement, it is impossible to force it to stay. Having in mind the fact that the provision of such assurances only increases the moral constraints of the agreement and may not have any practical value, why is Washington resisting their provision? Does Washington want another unjustified exit?

Response: My assessment is that as weak an American president as Biden will be very reluctant to generate critical reactions contending that he is giving assurances to a hostile foreign government that exceed his constitutional authority, based on the doctrine separation of legislative and executive authority that is invoked as an integral part of the foundation of legitimate governance in the U.S. The normal path to a long-range irreversible national commitments takes the form of an international treaty requiring ratification by 2/3s of the U.S. Senate. This would not be unobtainable in relation to the JCPOA. given Israel’s and Republican right-wing’s opposition to concluding any agreement with Iran on its nuclear program. In any event, to follow treaty ratification procedures would require years of effort even if the political atmosphere made ratification a practical option.

It is also probably useful for Biden to have the freedom to assure Israel and critics of a diplomatic approach coupled with an assurance that if Iran behaves in a manner that is regarded as unacceptable, then a second withdrawal is an option that has not been foreclosed, even morally. The issue is on both sides one of appearances, For Iran the appearance that JCPOA is this time a durable arrangement not subject to changes in political leadership in signatory countries. For the U.S. the appearance of flexibility are assurances to opponents and critics that JCPOA does not constrain American leaders from once more withdrawing and opting once more for a totally coercive approach to relations with Iran.

As matters now stand, the U.S. has virtually admitted that it needs time to consult with the E3 countries (France, UK, Germany), and most of all Israel to make sure that the terms agreed upon for the renewal of the JCPOA take maximum account of their national security interests. Whether the text subject to these consultations ends up in a deal probably depends on whether Washington is willing to ignore opposition by Israel and to moderate criticism by promising a strong U.S. future military and diplomatic engagement in securing the region. If an agreement does result it may also include an expressed willingness to refrain from Israeli unilateral moves against Iran even uses of aggressive force in total disregard of international law and the UN Charter.

17 Responses to “The Nuclear Agreement (JCPOA, 2015) Should be Renewed”

  1. Sean Breathnach August 26, 2022 at 11:35 am #

    The truth about Israel’s secret nuclear arsenal “Israel has been stealing nuclear secrets and covertly making bombs since the 1950s. And western governments, including Britain and the US, turn a blind eye. But how can we expect Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions if the Israelis won’t come clean?

    The tale serves as a historical counterpoint to today’s drawn-out struggle over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The parallels are not exact – Israel, unlike Iran, never signed up to the 1968 NPT so could not violate it. But it almost certainly broke a treaty banning nuclear tests, as well as countless national and international laws restricting the traffic in nuclear materials and technology.

    The list of nations that secretly sold Israel the material and expertise to make nuclear warheads, or who turned a blind eye to its theft, include today’s staunchest campaigners against proliferation: the US, France, Germany, Britain and even Norway.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/15/truth-israels-secret-nuclear-arsenal

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/12/02/why-is-the-u-s-okay-with-israel-having-nuclear-weapons-but-not-iran/

    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2021.2014239

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2010/05/why-won-t-israel-admit-it-has-nukes.html

    https://mondoweiss.net/2021/12/israel-has-90-nukes-but-our-leaders-wont-say-so-because-u-s-would-have-to-cut-off-aid/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/israel-nuclear-weapons-secret-united-states/380237/

    • Anon August 27, 2022 at 11:17 am #

      Why our comments are not posted?

      • Richard Falk August 28, 2022 at 1:32 am #

        I have chosen to review comments to avoid giving a platform to ‘hate speech’ and personal smears. I try hard not to censor view I disagree with.
        Sometimes, I am slow to review submitted comments. For this I apologize.

      • Richard Falk August 28, 2022 at 1:32 am #

        See above..

    • Richard Falk August 28, 2022 at 1:44 am #

      An important clarifying perspective that should be heeded if law and morality guided policy rather
      than geopolitical ambition.

  2. darius August 26, 2022 at 9:29 pm #

    {{Biden is also under pressure from Israel and from domestic politics with an mid-term election scheduled for November 2022, not to rejoin the JCPOA, at least not without additional constraints on Iran …}}

    Prof. Falk,
    Thank you for your concern about Iran where is under extreme pressure by the US and the zionist mafia. The zionist mafia design and implement all the stupid sanctions to keep the pressure on Iran to surrender or be destroyed.
    I should say that the majority of the Iranian people who understand JCPOA is nothing but a TRAP and has NO benefit for Iran but LOST from $300B to $900B, are against JCPOA. It was the US who left the ‘deal’ but has not lost a penny, where I think is criminal and the US MUST pay reparation.
    Some of the Iranians may agreed with JCPOA in 2015, but after Trump left and started his ‘maximum pressure’ policy and asked Iran to accept his stupid ’12 points’ policy, to insult the Iranians, then Iranians have understood how criminal are the US and the zionist mafia.
    Today, the intellectuals know a lot about the US economic war against Iran and actually HOW IT WORKS. They know that these sanctions are not going to be lifted. As you say, Biden is a weak president who is trying to deceive Iran into JCPOA because the US and in particular the weak Biden NEEDS jcpoa NOT Iran. Iran already has the painful experience behind it and has passed the shock that illiterate ‘president’ Trump applied to Iran to break its economic backbone. Biden and the West need Iranian oil in order to prevent the keep their citizens warm during winter with LOWER price to prevent chaos among their dissatisfied societies to control protests and riots. Also Biden needs Jcpoa to deceive the American into another term with him, where is NOT going to happen, but Biden does not care because the cost is going to be on Iran and the Iranian people. So, there is not much difference for Iran to have the ‘deal’ or not. But it is vital for the criminals at the WH and occupied land to put the shackles, jcpoa , back on Iran’s hands and legs to control Iran to buy time until more traitors, like Rouhan/zarif, comes into power and do as they say.
    Frankly, please don’t listen to zionist propagandists who pretend they don’t want Biden to return to JCPOA. This is a game that is played to put pressure on Iran to obtain more concessions and control the Iranian population through psychological manipulation. Iranian people know that the Zionists, especially, the officials, want JCPOA because they think this is the best thing they have, Many former Mossad directors have said that Israel should talk according to its SIZE and should allow the US do the the talking to bring Iran into Jcpoa.
    So, in fact the Iranian people are fed up with all these manipulation and deceptions US/Israel are playing against Iran for a legal program that is Iranian’s right to have it.
    Professor John Mearshameir on PBS said ‘Nuclear-Armed Iran Would Bring Stability to the region, where I agree with him.
    But, the Iran legal nuclear program, is just an excuse to keep Iran in a BOX through all these stupid illegal sanctions where are designed and enforced by by the criminal Zionists like Stewart Levy and David Cohen, to prevent Iran becoming the economic power of the region. This is the main reason behind the zionist’s fears, as Yehuda Barak said in a meeting where he was promoting his book ” My country, My life’ in 2018, NOT the legal nuclear program.

    • Richard Falk August 28, 2022 at 1:42 am #

      An important contrarian view with important insights..

  3. darius August 26, 2022 at 10:24 pm #

    {{This outlook reflects overwhelming sentiments that JCPOA is a positive framework for tension reduction and war avoidance in the Middle East that deserves widespread support to overcome these unfortunate pockets of continuing opposition to any agreement with Iran, …}}

    JCPOA is a trap to keep Iran under control and to create more chaos preventing Iran to become the economic power of the region. The US/Israel want Iran to become the second Saudi Arabia to fund and fight for the interest of the criminal elite who control the world. Iran is under illegal sanctions for NO reason for more than 30 years.
    From 1986 onward, Iran’s foreign exchange reserves were invested in other countries in various banks of the world, especially in Europe, in the form of cash or dollar bonds or shares, and these funds were at risk of being blocked in the event of a complaint from some countries.
    Currently, it is not possible to transfer this money to the Central Bank, because it is not possible to open an account from the Central Bank in other countries.
    According to international law expert Nemat Ahmadi, “One of the reasons that Iran cannot receive its blocked money even in bilateral currency from China is the U-TURN license.
    The presence of “U-turn” in the cycle of financial exchanges between Iran and oil buying countries made Iran able to receive its oil money in dollars from European banks and the rest of the world’s banks. However, in the mechanism of economic sanctions, according to the prediction and estimation made in Iran’s research institutes, from 2010 onward, this license was withdrawn and Iranian oil money was blocked in American banks.
    This revocation had important implications. Now the problem was that the banks and institutions in Europe, the Middle East and Asia that provided financing for Iran’s oil contracts could no longer count on the relations of their American counterparts to settle dollars. Considering the trades that were traded in dollars, this was a damage to Iran’s normal trades.

    When Biden and the zionists at the Treasury do not remove this sanction, then how Iran suppose to do the transaction which is based on $$$? jcpoa does not allow Iran to use the international banking system. Does Biden think the Iranian people are fools like those who ‘advise’ him? Remove the REAL sanction and stop deceiving world population.
    In this regard, the spokesman of the White House during the Obama regime said, “What I can say for sure is that the United States has no decision to re-establish the authorization of the so-called ‘U-turn’ transactions for Iran.
    Then why Biden is wasting Iranian time to help himself and the Western countries so US can keep these colonies forever. The European countries must stand up and do business directly with Iran. Everyone knows that the European countries are nothing but stupid colonies. They should go to hell. Your winter should be so cold that all of the fools be frozen and go into their graves. Besides, Biden is lying and like Trump, can actually brings more sanction, during JCPOA, on Iran like what the illiterate ‘president’ did. Jcpoa is a tool to be used to control Iran’s actions and force Iran to recognize the apartheid entity buying security for a terrorist state, Israel. Biden must know this is not going to work. Leave iran alone.

    • Richard Falk August 28, 2022 at 1:38 am #

      I find somewhat overstated, but illuminating and essentially persuasive on fundamentals, including the
      unfamiliar idea in the West that JCPOA is a trap for Iran.

  4. darius August 27, 2022 at 5:03 am #

    what have happened to my comments? I have sent two comments.

  5. sami August 28, 2022 at 5:53 pm #

    The zionist Joe Biden has allowed Israelis to have more inputs in the JCPOA compare to the Obama regime 2015, to satisfy Israel that this is a good deal. Yair Lapid’s complains about the ‘deal’ is for domestic consumption related to the struggle with Netanyahu for power, because Iran related issue has become an important issue to be used for the candidates to project power and strength. They know JCPOA brings so many opportunities for Israel and Biden regime to create chaos and introduce obstacles using Rafael Grossi, not a UN nuclear watchdog who should not be BIASED, but in fact he is an Israeli/US informant to spy on Iran’s defense capability, to produce FAKE ‘violation’ that Iran does not allow inspection of enough sites to make sure that its program is ‘safe, like in Iraq and we know what has happened to Iraq.
    The ‘negotiation’ is a tool for US/Israel to control Iran’s behavior and policy. With this ‘deal’ they also steal the enriched uranium material which is Iran’s winner card to negotiate.
    Biden needs Iran’s oil and gas to protect its allies, the colonies in Europe, otherwise they should expect riots and chaos due to high energy prices in Europe and other places.
    After 30 years of wars and invasion, US can not claim one victory. Therefor, the US economic WAR on its perceived ‘enemy’ has become the war of choice for the present and the near future because it is the best and the cheapest war suited for the US broken economy where all the tools are at the service of US since US violation of the ‘deal’ does not cost the criminal elite a penny only the targeted state, Iran, is going to lose $billion of dollars again. US has not accepted any guarantee not to leave the ‘deal’ and if does, should pay penalty, even for the duration of Biden regime. Then, what kind of ‘deal’ is this? Biden can violate the ‘deal’ again and introduce MORE SANCTIONS, like Trump, and pays nothing. The apartheid entity wants even more. They are saying that there should be a credible MILITARY action if Iran does not ‘behave’.
    In the following video, the Israelis confess that Biden actually allowed Israel to have far more influence in the deal compare to Obama regime in 2015.

  6. sami August 28, 2022 at 9:34 pm #

    I was surfing the net, and I found an opinion piece “Is the Iran deal worth salvaging?” by Ishaan Tharoor, at:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/26/iran-nuclear-deal-salvage/

    The author, after giving a boring history of JCPOA, finally concluded that:
    “We need to move beyond the JCPOA, we need to move past it.”
    This piece was not interesting to me, but the following comment was.
    The comment said:

    LEON LOU: 3 days ago
    {{Iran need to just sit on the US comment on the EU proposal for two months and allow JCPOA to die. The mere fact that Iran is negotiating guarantees for a renewed JCPOA highlights what has always been wrong with JCPOA. Namely the West never had any intentions of abiding with even the minimum requirement of version 1.0 otherwise it would have been easy for the US to return to JCPOA. The plan was always to pretend to suspend(please note that the word suspend and NOT lift) the sanctions, have Iran destroyed some centrifuges and shipped LEUs, freeze its industry and development. Then, a few months later, invent new claims from the IAEA based on the same PMD, then add the same sanctions. From this new Iran nuclear baseline, demand more concession from endless “negotiations”.
    The IAEA will never clear Iran of anything, Mr. Grossi already made this clear. IAEA still has not declared that Natanz, Fordo, Isfahan, and even Bushehr are in peaceful use, this is even when it had 24/7 surveillance of those facilities for 10 years. How is that even possible? To listen to Mr. Grossi, you would think IRAN is the only country in the world that is “enriching uranium” and Iran has less than 50,000 SWU of nuclear capacity installed.
    As it stands, no version of JCPOA is in Iran’s interest and its negotiators must realize that they would be inviting a war if they agree to any version. The idea of some “economic benefit” from JCPOA is very laughable. But the idea of monies can be enticing to lavish on constituents to remain in power. But the Caveat for President Raeisi and his negotiators is this “bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughter.” In bearish time, right after Trump withdrew from the deal, Iran oil output went down but they still made enough to balance their budget. In bullish time as it is now with Russia and China unabashedly behind them, they are making more than enough money. Therefore, do not be a pig. The so-called “democratic states” are descendants of ravenous wolves. Just look at Libya.}}

    And an Iranian replied:
    Cyrus said:
    Right on all points.
    Yet sanctions are inconvenient and holding Iran’s growth back.
    It’s better for them to be removed and Iran’s money to be released.

  7. sami August 29, 2022 at 6:56 am #

    Rafael Grossi from IAEA is not an unbiased inspection agent, rather an Israeli’s SPY to obtain information to be used by Israel to inject obstacles or assassinate the nuclear scientists where already both have happened many times in the past. Rafael Grossi must bring the Israeli’s nuclear BOMB making industry under IAEA and force Israel to sign NPT, otherwise he should get lost. It is the time to DISARM the apartheid entity and send a strong message that enough is enough. Israel MUST obey the Int. law before saying anything else.
    Here is the latest piece by ‘Foreign policy’ titled ‘Man Standing For Nonproliferation’ posted by a terrorist foundation FDD, let by a zionist liar and a propagandist, Mark Dubowitz, who pressured Trump, with the cooperation of another zionist and agent of Israel, Jared Kushner, to tear up the JCPOA and inject ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran to introduce economic SHOCKS for regime change.
    The American foreign policy in the Middle East is greatly influenced by the mafia camp and its zionist actors to benefit ISRAEL against the interest of American people or even American economy. JCPOA is manipulated by Israel lobby and its servants including Biden so he can have the backing of the mafia for the coming election, excuse me, the selection.
    When the American people are silent against the influence of Israel lobby in picking up their ‘representatives’ who MUST be pro Israel crimes against humanity and say nothing then they are complicit to Israelis’ crimes themselves. When AIPAC is OPENLY injects its influences in the election by funding the PRO Israel servants, and ADVERTISE it in the media, to select Israel’s agents for the congress or the Senate races, then America is lost to the mafia with the help of the gullible people. It is amazing that American people allow a lobby of a FOREIGN country select their ‘representatives’ for them and they go along with and say nothing. This is nothing but a banana republic.
    The ‘Foreign Policy’ gives the following description of an Israeli’s SPY, Grossi, as follows:
    [[Rafael Grossi Is the Last Man Standing For Nonproliferation
    Despite pressure from various sides, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency won’t let Iran off the hook.
    “Grossi is still the main obstacle to the finalization” of a nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, proclaimed Nour News, an outlet frequently used by Iran’s supreme leader for unofficial commentary. Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), may in fact be the last man standing against a shorter, weaker version of the 2015 nuclear deal that would irreparably harm the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Despite imminent pressure from all sides, including Washington, Grossi is refusing to close his agency’s probe into Tehran’s suspect atomic activities to pave the way for the accord’s revival.]]

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/29/rafael-grossi-iaea-iran-nuclear-deal-biden-bomb-weapons-non-proliferation/

  8. Anon August 29, 2022 at 8:22 am #

    AIPAC, a lobby of a foreign country, is spreading the following lie for the gullible people: “Being pro-Israel is both good policy and good politics.”

  9. nadim August 30, 2022 at 8:29 am #

    This video is the evidence for my analysis that I sent to this page, unfortunately, has been blocked to protect a criminal tribe and not to inform the Americans and the public in general, and I hope this evidence persuade them that censorship is not the answer.
    I have written that the IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi is working on behalf of the Israelis, not the agency, and I call him an AGENT of Israel who is there to create obstacle for Iran to prevent any improvement of relations between US-Iran unless Iran is surrendered to the demands of a criminal Tribe. In this video Scott Ritter saying the same thing calling Grossi, an agent following the instruction of Israelis.
    Today, the criminal Yossi Cohen confess to Israelis terrorism and assassinations in Iran.
    “Ex-Mossad chief Yossi Cohen said that Israel carried out ‘countless operations’ against Iran when he headed the spy agency, and also
    former Israeli Officials Urge Israel to Prepare Military Action Against Iran”

    These terrorists know very well that Israel is NOT in a position to attack Iran. This propaganda is made to bring US into action against Iran where the former US presidents, Bush, Obama, and others, many times, have told these criminals in Tel Aviv that US has no ‘plan B’ for Iran, but these criminals and assassins do not stop until their lobby brings Iran under attack, like the neocons, designed and implemented the war in Iraq, Libya, Syria using American treasure and blood. But the US is broken economically and morally now, not able to wage another war on behalf of Israel for the near future.
    If you want to know about the reasons behind the JCPOA disagreements between Iran-US, please watch the following video which is freely available on the net, no censorship.

  10. Kata Fisher August 30, 2022 at 2:34 pm #

    Dear Professor Falk. I do know that it drains the energy
    – but, the ancient forms of the language that can be found in the Sacred Scripts can be used, and they can be used even though they are applied in the contemporarily linguistic forms (which also may include bad words). Somethings, and sometimes it is not possible to describe the contemporarily immoral, wretched, and the wicked behaviors apart from the contemporarily linguistic forms. It does come to the capacity of the individual, the cultural, and the regional consciousness -how the forms of the contemporarily expressions or linguistic concepts, and processing of them can and can not be. It depends if they can or can not be cognitively processed. So, whatever it is said in a culture – it may or may not be said. I never slapped the kid over their moth when they said a bad word. Also, I encourage them to disrespect at any time that they feel the force that they should. It’s good for the spiritual growth. I hope this is helpful when comes to the censoring 🙂 K.F.

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